What are the chances that you will reach your goal? (Steve Pavlina)
Original: What Are the Odds of Becoming a Black Belt?
Posted by: Steve Pavlina
Translation: Evgeny Efremov
People often ask me to help assess their chances in some endeavors: What are my chances as a blogger? What are my chances to succeed by becoming an independent game developer? What are my chances as an entrepreneur?
It seems very reasonable to evaluate the risks before taking up a new business. But unfortunately, the way most people do this is stupid enough.
')
Often, such people are looking for some statistics that would help them to assess the risk: How many people from all those who started similar activities achieved what I want to achieve? For example, if you want to earn $ 5,000 a month as a blogger, this question will sound like this: “What percentage of bloggers doing this on a regular basis earn $ 5,000 a month or more?”. Suppose that about one percent. And knowing this, you assess your chances of the same figure.
What does this statistic have to do with your personal chance to succeed? Yes, none at all.
For me, asking such questions is like asking, “What are my chances of becoming a kung fu master?”. If you have firmly decided to become a black belt of kung fu style, and are ready to give time and effort to training, then it is likely that you will become one. But, if you have never practiced martial arts and are expecting quick and easy success, then you will be greatly disappointed.
In many areas of activity, only this one percent of the successful will be, since the remaining 99% only create the appearance of participation in the activity. They are just amateurs, not serious contenders for success. This one percent of success is often found in areas with “low entry barriers,” such as blogging, acting, and music. In these areas you will find only a small percentage of people who really decide to reach the pinnacle of mastery, while the rest have almost no chance of achieving significant success.
Leaving the crowd in any sphere of life is just a matter of choice. And this choice is a firm decision to gain mastery. But very few people make such a choice, because it requires hard work, determination, patience, discipline, and is designed for the long term. Wishing to become an actor, but who surrendered in the first year of study, he did not exactly make that choice. As well as the blogger who abandoned the case after six months. If you want to succeed in an area in which you have practically no experience, you should expect to devote at least 3-5 years to this area before you will achieve significant success. If it scares you - quit your venture and save your time.
When you start your activity in an area you have not explored, without having any experience in it, you will suffer defeats ... and probably very serious defeats. But the worst thing is that you will not even realize how sorry you look. You are taking on a new activity, full of confidence and ... completely incompetent and not even aware of it.
So what's next? And then - you screw it up. If you are lucky, your results will be just bad, and not painfully terrible. But it normal. This was to be expected. Learn from mistakes. And each such mistake helps you to see new opportunities and develop your skills.
Imagine a student in the martial arts, sparring for the first time. He has poor coordination, speed, lacks the ability to maintain balance, endurance and flexibility ... not to mention self-confidence. But everyone starts like that. Even the best black belts started with a white belt.
It may take years to achieve significant success in any worthwhile business and hone your skills, but it is precisely because of this that you will move from these 99% of amateurs to 1% of those who succeed. Amateurs try to do business for six months and then quit, deciding that it is too hard. But the challenging activity is good - long-term investments in the development of your skills will mean something to you, such as a black belt. It would not be such an achievement if it were too easy.
Imagine yourself a beginner white kung-fu belt with no martial arts experience. You approach the instructor and say "I want to participate in competitions of the black belt level." Your coach will probably laugh at you. If you spar with an opponent who has passed at least half the way to the black belt, you will lose each time. If you do 100 such fights, you lose all 100 fights. And it is in this place that amateur amateurs decide that they are not destined to succeed in kung fu. But those who have made a firm decision to achieve their goal know that a long way of mastery lies ahead of them. Becoming a black belt is a choice, although definitely not the easiest.
And the whole injustice of such areas as blogging, acting, music is that white belts and black belts are thrown into one cauldron. And white belts are compelled to oppose black ones who have been honing their skills for years. This is certainly unfair. But this is what challenges and makes it interesting.
When you start as a white belt in a dishonest fight, you will be crushed. Black belts will beat you again and again. And no matter what you do, it will seem like nothing helps. But if you are serious, you will not expect early success. This is just training. Your task is to survive and learn, not win. And here you have the advantage - you can develop your skills much faster than black belts.
And you train. And train. And train. And if you have been doing this for a long time, then at some point you will find yourself possessing a black belt in your area. And at this level, everything will be much simpler due to the fact that now your abilities will be enough to cope with the challenge. And therefore, it will be possible for you to achieve such results that are practically impossible for those who are just starting. And then you will have the opportunity to think about what to say to people asking you "what are my chances of getting a black belt?"
Your chances of success in the chosen case you will not find in any statistics. Success is what you have to choose, not what should "happen" to you. And you will succeed by deciding what you want, knowing why you want it, and devoting yourself entirely to it.
Posted by: Steve Pavlina
Translation: Evgeny Efremov
People often ask me to help assess their chances in some endeavors: What are my chances as a blogger? What are my chances to succeed by becoming an independent game developer? What are my chances as an entrepreneur?
It seems very reasonable to evaluate the risks before taking up a new business. But unfortunately, the way most people do this is stupid enough.
')
Often, such people are looking for some statistics that would help them to assess the risk: How many people from all those who started similar activities achieved what I want to achieve? For example, if you want to earn $ 5,000 a month as a blogger, this question will sound like this: “What percentage of bloggers doing this on a regular basis earn $ 5,000 a month or more?”. Suppose that about one percent. And knowing this, you assess your chances of the same figure.
What does this statistic have to do with your personal chance to succeed? Yes, none at all.
For me, asking such questions is like asking, “What are my chances of becoming a kung fu master?”. If you have firmly decided to become a black belt of kung fu style, and are ready to give time and effort to training, then it is likely that you will become one. But, if you have never practiced martial arts and are expecting quick and easy success, then you will be greatly disappointed.
In many areas of activity, only this one percent of the successful will be, since the remaining 99% only create the appearance of participation in the activity. They are just amateurs, not serious contenders for success. This one percent of success is often found in areas with “low entry barriers,” such as blogging, acting, and music. In these areas you will find only a small percentage of people who really decide to reach the pinnacle of mastery, while the rest have almost no chance of achieving significant success.
Leaving the crowd in any sphere of life is just a matter of choice. And this choice is a firm decision to gain mastery. But very few people make such a choice, because it requires hard work, determination, patience, discipline, and is designed for the long term. Wishing to become an actor, but who surrendered in the first year of study, he did not exactly make that choice. As well as the blogger who abandoned the case after six months. If you want to succeed in an area in which you have practically no experience, you should expect to devote at least 3-5 years to this area before you will achieve significant success. If it scares you - quit your venture and save your time.
When you start your activity in an area you have not explored, without having any experience in it, you will suffer defeats ... and probably very serious defeats. But the worst thing is that you will not even realize how sorry you look. You are taking on a new activity, full of confidence and ... completely incompetent and not even aware of it.
So what's next? And then - you screw it up. If you are lucky, your results will be just bad, and not painfully terrible. But it normal. This was to be expected. Learn from mistakes. And each such mistake helps you to see new opportunities and develop your skills.
Imagine a student in the martial arts, sparring for the first time. He has poor coordination, speed, lacks the ability to maintain balance, endurance and flexibility ... not to mention self-confidence. But everyone starts like that. Even the best black belts started with a white belt.
It may take years to achieve significant success in any worthwhile business and hone your skills, but it is precisely because of this that you will move from these 99% of amateurs to 1% of those who succeed. Amateurs try to do business for six months and then quit, deciding that it is too hard. But the challenging activity is good - long-term investments in the development of your skills will mean something to you, such as a black belt. It would not be such an achievement if it were too easy.
Imagine yourself a beginner white kung-fu belt with no martial arts experience. You approach the instructor and say "I want to participate in competitions of the black belt level." Your coach will probably laugh at you. If you spar with an opponent who has passed at least half the way to the black belt, you will lose each time. If you do 100 such fights, you lose all 100 fights. And it is in this place that amateur amateurs decide that they are not destined to succeed in kung fu. But those who have made a firm decision to achieve their goal know that a long way of mastery lies ahead of them. Becoming a black belt is a choice, although definitely not the easiest.
And the whole injustice of such areas as blogging, acting, music is that white belts and black belts are thrown into one cauldron. And white belts are compelled to oppose black ones who have been honing their skills for years. This is certainly unfair. But this is what challenges and makes it interesting.
When you start as a white belt in a dishonest fight, you will be crushed. Black belts will beat you again and again. And no matter what you do, it will seem like nothing helps. But if you are serious, you will not expect early success. This is just training. Your task is to survive and learn, not win. And here you have the advantage - you can develop your skills much faster than black belts.
And you train. And train. And train. And if you have been doing this for a long time, then at some point you will find yourself possessing a black belt in your area. And at this level, everything will be much simpler due to the fact that now your abilities will be enough to cope with the challenge. And therefore, it will be possible for you to achieve such results that are practically impossible for those who are just starting. And then you will have the opportunity to think about what to say to people asking you "what are my chances of getting a black belt?"
Your chances of success in the chosen case you will not find in any statistics. Success is what you have to choose, not what should "happen" to you. And you will succeed by deciding what you want, knowing why you want it, and devoting yourself entirely to it.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/31197/
All Articles