In the modern era of the game, patches, DLC and extensions have become an integral part of the game’s life cycle. Since its release, and even from the development stage, DLCs are planned to infuse new content throughout the life of the game in order to preserve its freshness, appeal, balance and relevance. However, patches are notorious for paying consumers; they perceive them as an indulgence for developers to release unfinished games and to hide the game’s opportunities for paywalls and microtransactions for the benefit of profit.

There was a lot of controversy about Street Fighter V (SFV), because from the point of view of buyers, it combines both good and bad sides. I decided to analyze the SFV, because it is my favorite eSports discipline among all broadcasts. I like not only athletes, but also people who make up the Fighting Game Community ( founded in 2000. ), such as Mike Ross, Gootecks, Floe, K-Brad, Justin Wong, GamerBee, Tokido, Infiltration, Daigo and Marn.

Can a DLC save an SFV?

The opinion of Fighting Gaming Community (FGC) on SFV is contradictory, and Steam reviews eloquently show 50% of those who recommended the game. The release of the game was a disappointment and ridicule for gamers. Her reputation was a marketing nightmare that repelled any newcomer to the genre who picked up a game for herself. However, I am sure that SFV has a very strong game mechanic, this is recognized even by its strongest critics. The question is: can an SFV recover from a terrible start and attract more players with DLC and patches?
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To answer it, we will look at the change in the number of players over time relative to the release of the four main DLCs and check how much they have increased the number of players:

1. Alex (03/28/2016)
2. Guile (04/28/2016)
3. Cinematic + Balrog + Ibuki (06/30/2016)
4. Juri (07/25/2016)

The black line shows the daily number of SFV players on the PC. Red markings indicate the output of each DLC.

Objective: to determine the effect of each DLC on the number of players in Street Fighter V (SFV) on the Steam platform.

Method: We will create a Bayesian Structural Time Series for the number of players in an SFV based on the control variables of similar fighting games: Guilty Gear Xrd (GGX) and Mortal Kombat X (MKX). They are played by SFV players, as well as members of the fighting game community (FGC), without exposure to SFV patches. Therefore, they can be ideal control values ​​as a covariant of trends in the number of players and its decline. Using these two games and simulating weekly cycles, we will create a hypothetical prediction of how the number of players should look like without the use of patches. In essence, we will predict how the number of players in an SFV without a DLC would look like and compare it with the actual number with a DLC. The difference between this hypothetical prediction and the actual amount will make up the impact that the DLC had on the number of players.

Data: We collected the daily number of SFV players on the PC platform via Steam (data for PS4 is not available). This is the number of unique players who played SFV for any time on a given day. It would be better to look at the number of new players or purchases, because we want to track the growth of the SFV user base, but, unfortunately, these data are not publicly available. Therefore, we will be based on how many people have played the game.

Predicting the number of players in Street Fighter from Guilty Gear Xrd and Mortal Kombat X

Below is a graph of the daily number of players in three similar games: Street Fighter V (SFV), Guilty Gear Xrd (GGX) and Mortal Kombat X (MKX). We chose GGX and MKX because they are popular with the FGC and are often played along with SFVs. As with any game, the largest number of players was on the release date, after which a sharp decline was noticeable, followed by a slow attenuation of numbers approximately corresponding to its most devoted fans. Of course, new players can buy the game at any time, but data on new players is not available, so you have to take all the players as they are.





Both SFV and MKX are of similar size, while the GGX has a smaller player base (upper chart). If we logarithmically scale the number of players (lower graph), we will notice that the decay patterns are similar. The MKX and SFV charts have bursts due to the release of patches and the DLC, but after the release, there were no serious patches or characters added in the GGX, so the natural attenuation is shown for it. It will serve as an example of how the number of players looks without the influence of developers.

Impact analysis

We use GGX and MKX to provide a Bayesian model SFV time series of information about its trends with the “aging” of the game. We will also take into account weekly cycles, because there are more players on weekends than on weekdays. Building a time series, we will pay attention to the release of the first DLC with the character Alex. As can be seen from the very first figure, at the time of its release there is a surge in players, but we need to evaluate this value numerically. For this we use impact analysis (Causal Impact). This method is primarily used to measure the impact of marketing campaigns on metrics such as ad clicks. We use it to measure the effect of a patch on the number of players. In other words, we can predict the number of players in the SFV, if Alex had not been released. The difference between these two values ​​will give us the effect of Alex’s release on the number of players.


Alex Edition: March 28, 2016

The graph below shows the solid black line with the actual number of players, and the dotted line shows the predicted number without the release of Alex, also known as the hypothetical prediction (the blue area is the 95% prediction interval). The upper chart shows the true values ​​of the number of players, the middle one shows the difference between real and predicted numbers, and the lower one shows the integral distribution curve for the difference of two numbers.



The influence of Alex added 14,190 man-days (an increase of 29%) over several days. However, the effect was short, and we see that the schedule returned to normal in just a week. This means that the addition of Alex, although it gave a short-term increase in players, but did not have a lasting effect.


Guile Release: April 28, 2016

We repeat the same process for the release of Guile. In general, it seems that he has less effect than Alex: he added a total of 4,542 man-days (an increase of 20%) and influenced only half a week. The difference with Alex in this release is that the “Rage Quit” penalty system was introduced with it. ( comment pev .: in SFV online battles there is a player rating based on the number of battles, victories and defeats. Some players are trying to improve their rating by leaving the battle that they will lose soon. This system of penalties has been created against those who particularly abuse this. Rage Quit means quitting the game in a rage at losing. ) It seems that its effect has led to a faster than usual decrease in the player base.


Above: Actual number of players (solid line) and hypothetical prediction without exposure to Guile DLC (dashed line). In the middle: the difference between real and predicted numbers. Bottom: integral difference distribution curve. The average is lower than predicted, possibly due to the introduction of a “Rage Quit” fine.

The actual number dropped below that predicted by about 550 players and the decline continued some time after the initial surge. This may mean that the “Rage Quit” system works, perhaps it happened because the penalized players began to play less.


Juri Edition: July 25, 2016

The next patch after Guile was the Story Mode + Balrog + Ibuki DLC. But for now we’ll skip this release and move on to Juri. As in other issues, we see a short jump of about 4,518 man-days (an increase of 22%) and a return to the normal curve.




Exit Story Mode + Balrog + Ibuki: 06/30/2016

Finally, we move on to the biggest release of the SFV add-on with two new characters, Balrog and Ibuki, and the new Cinematic Story mode. This campaign for 4-5 hours shows not only the same jump in the number of players after the release, but also the rise of the whole trend. He even corrected the deficit, (possibly) arising from the introduction of the Rage Quit penalty system. For 56 days, there were 57,340 man-days (minus the effect of the Juri patch). Moreover, the effect of the patch mode Story Mode is preserved in the future, as can be seen from the rise of the integral distribution curve of the difference. However, others coincided with this event, which could affect the number of players:

• Discount 33% (July 15 - July 17)
• EVO 2016 (July 15 - July 17)
• Discount 33% (18.08 - 21.08)

Above: actual number of players (solid line) and hypothetical prediction without exposure to DLC Story / Ibuki / Balrog (dashed line). In the middle: the difference between real and predicted numbers. Bottom: integral difference distribution curve. Unlike previous character releases, the effect persists over time.

Cinematic Story mode contains 4-5 hours of content. This means that some players will not pass it in one day, but stretch over several days, so one player may appear in our data for several days. In addition, a well-made history mode means that new players who have ignored the game during its life cycle have the opportunity to adapt to it from scratch. The game will “hold the hand” of a novice, lead him along the storyline, introducing him not only with the game mechanics, but also with the characters of the characters and their place in the world of Street Fighter. Unfortunately, we have no data on how much better the game holds newcomers with the history mode compared to its absence, so we cannot evaluate the effectiveness of this mode. Be that as it may, he still has a significant influence on the number of players in the long run. I think that “soft” content like the Cinematic Story mode doesn’t affect the game mechanics, but it’s still important for retaining players.

Games like Overwatch have proven that new players choose characters for a variety of reasons. Developers with the help of skins, lora and stories manage the sympathy of players to certain characters, and therefore to the game. Even when people are not involved in the game process, they create entire communities around fan art, character videos and amateur game instructions. If the game is as complex as SFV and cannot easily smooth out the learning curve for new players (except for long practice and honing skills), then I think developers should attract and tie players to characters using such more “soft” methods.

The story mode was fairly well received and influenced the players' perception of the game as a whole. The graph below shows a surge in the SFV rating on Steam immediately after the release of Cinematic Story mode at the end of June. Also noteworthy is the drop in rankings after the introduction of “Rage Quit” in early May. Maybe the embittered rage-quit-players began to underestimate the ratings of the game in the reviews, and maybe this system is simply not well perceived by the majority of players.


The orange line is the integral rating at a given time , the blue line is the number of reviews / votes on that day . We see a jump not only in the number of votes after the release of Cinematic Story Mode, but also a positive reception. Notice the downgrade from May 5 to June 5. It may be due to the introduction of the Rage Quit system in the Guile release on April 28th.

Conclusion

Releases of new characters led only to temporary jumps in the number of players, and such content as Cinematic Story Mode provided a lasting effect. Perhaps this indicates that Capcom should put more effort into this type of release. I do not want to say that the issues of the characters do not affect the life of the game at all, but this influence is not so obvious. Of course, there are other character release effects besides short-term ones, because they attract former Street Fighter players to SFV. Personally, I didn’t plan to buy SFV until they revived Karin from the days of the Alpha series. Our only metric was the number of players per day, not the number of new players, so we are not sure whether Story Mode has provoked its growth: an increase in the number of players after the release of the story mode can be inflated only because old players got 4-5 hours of new occupations. It would be more interesting to see how he attracted new players, and how Story Mode influenced the transition of players from single to online game, but this data is not available.

As a result, below is a combination of all the predictions and the actual number of players.


The black line is the actual number of players every day, the red line is the predicted number excluding DLC ​​issues.

Here are the conclusions that can be drawn from this analysis:

• The release of each character temporarily increases the number of players for several days, which then gradually returns to normal without significant long-term effects.
• On the other hand, the Cinematic Story Mode (June 30) showed not only a short surge, but also increased the daily number of players, continuing with time.
• The release of Guile (April 28) was introduced along with the “Rage Quit” fines system. As usual, we see a short-term jump in the number of players, but then a decline that differs from the expected one. Perhaps this is a consequence of the actions of rage-quit-players, and this means that the system works correctly. However, only Capcom has data, so only she knows if this is true.

Personal reasoning

(This analysis is complete and my own thoughts about the future of SFV continue. You can read them if you are interested in the arguments of an ordinary fan.)

Although it seems that Story Mode had a greater impact than the release of characters, you should not immediately begin to judge the growth of SFV. The basis of SFV is an online mode, and the question of how long an SFV’s life is is how well content like Story Mode turns new players into online fighters. Of course, we don’t have data to test, but it would still be interesting to see if players who have gone through Cinematic Story Mode remain longer in multiplayer online battles.

Street Fighter V has its own problems, but a lot of good things happen in it. Despite the bad reviews on Steam, the majority agrees that the project has a strong core of game mechanics - this is even recognized by the authors of the negative reviews (minus the K-Brad, because at the Tokyo Game Show CPT he realized that he played incorrectly). The aggressive style of SFV battles, in contrast to the style of its predecessors and other FGC games, leads to explosive-dynamic matches, which, I believe, have become the most attractive ones for watching among other cyber competitions. They can become popularly popular so that viewers can fill the Mandalay Bay Stadium.

If the developers continue to stir up interest in the game with the help of “long-playing” content and change the attitude of the public towards it, there will be organically created personalities in the community that Capcom should actively support. I believe that SFV is waiting for the resurrection and it will pick up a critical mass, like other e-sports games, the fandom of which has become large enough to become the main marketing force.

CS: GO had a Counter Strike 1.6 fan base, on the basis of which the game gained popularity, and in the arena of competition there is no one as old as Street Fighter. Those who switched from CS 1.6 to CS: GO and from DotA to DotA2 did not do it for the sake of gameplay, the biggest improvements were the competition system, the visual component and the increased convenience. Filing and good game design can do a lot.

Riot not only supports the league of professionals of League of Legends, but also creates a reputation as the best in their business, telling about them on Youtube / Twitch / Facebook / Twitter in high-quality commercials and documentaries. SFV also identified the masters who mastered the management of characters with the deepest history of all e-sports games: if you play Ryu, look at Daigo “The Beast” Umehara and Hajime “Tokido-Murderface” Taniguchi. If you want to improve the Cammy game, watch Kenneth “K-Brad” Bradley and Chung-Gon “Poongko” Lee. Want to master the defensive tactics of Nash? Learn the game Seon-Woo “Infiltration” Lee and Du “KnuckleDu” Dang. Are you improving Ken? Watch videos from Julio, ChrisT, Brenttiscool and Momochi. If you want to learn how to play for Mika, repeat after the genius of Keita “Fuudo” Ai, if behind Gou, see the stream Martin “Marn” Phan. And there are many more players with very deep stories. Most recently, the story of Joe “Long Island Joe” Ciaramelli has been well received. Daigo has an autobiography and manga will soon be released about his way to tournament victories and about improving as a player. Capcom doesn't have to pay writers to create great stories; it just has to introduce the world to these recognized personalities and publish them on its Youtube channel and on Twitter. Remove documentaries, watch them in tournaments and increase the popularity of your game.

In addition to the pleasant characters, DotA2 already has ready cybersports and replays in the UI. Why not shoot short films and replays of someone like Justin Wong (my favorite player, manager Karin), available in the client for study and repetition? In the League of Legends there is an information segment , where the analyst acquaints the audience with the important moments of the game of professionals, analyzing smart decisions and precise coordination of teams. Such details more strongly bind the audience to the game, at the same time improving the skills of professionals. Even the half brother of FGC Super Smash Bros is interesting because the developers provide an adequate level of interaction with the game community. Cells of serious fighters are created independently: when playing with friends, in small tournaments of anime and comic festivals across the country, so that new celebrities like Ken and Isai, Armada, Mango and Hungrybox appear on Youtube and Twitch.

The SFV has everything you need to succeed, but, like everything, I sit and wait for a sign from above. I agree, the time for SFV has not yet come, but I hopefully waiting for the moment when many fans will appear in the community. Of course, the release of SFV was a disaster, but the developers did a lot to turn it into a more complete and polished game. The question is, can the community forgive Capcom and return to the franchise? Is the SFV community the biggest hindrance to your own growth? If all the bugs, problems and gaps are eliminated, will we be able to love this game again? Or is it too late and the FGC community will close in on itself? I think my advice would be useful to both parties:

• Capcom: Whatever happens, keep creating content that enhances the quality of online games and invest in content that has a lasting effect. In addition, Capcom needs to go ahead and introduce the world to professionals who already have a long history (everyone saw the fight Daigo against JWong). Investing can be risky at first, but I think when you bring Justin Wongs and Ricki Ortizs to celebrity level, the sponsors will do the marketing for you. They will push players and develop SFV.
• FGC : Let's step back from inventing memes and stop hating. Isn't SFV fun to watch? If you're interested, then I think you should forget the madness of the game's release stage and evaluate the SFV in its current state. Of course, it’s not perfect, but perhaps we can recognize its merits and at least tell those who are able to buy a game that it’s no longer “lame”.