All social networks are developing on schedule.

I recently signed up on Facebook. I resisted as long as I could, but it happened. And I could not help but notice a whole stream of other people whom I know and who registered at the same time with me, which immediately causes a certain feeling of deja vu. More recently, the same excitement was around the other social network Myspace, which was in the spotlight. It seems that each social network goes through several standard stages in its development.



This trend continues because new sites are replacing the old ones. The audience runs from one resource to another, which causes a sharp increase in newcomers and the smooth decline of previous leaders.

For example, the Facebook audience is growing at the expense of Myspace, and the Digg audience at Slashdot.
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The graph shows that the most dangerous for a startup is the first stage of its development, when it experiences a stage of "uncertainty" and recession. Then either rapid growth or death of the project can follow.