My predictions for 2006: results
Last year, like many others, I made a series of predictions that should have happened in 2006. Now is the time to look around and assess how right I was.
The media will go to sharp criticism of Google, the company's shares will fall in price
It did not come true. The press has become more critical of Google, focusing on company management, issues with privacy issues and buying YouTube . At the same time, there were no serious disappointments or scandals, and the share price only increased.
Yahoo will bet on communities, acquire even more start-up companies and practically will not benefit from it
Come true. Yahoo has made an obvious stake in communities and social search ( Yahoo Answers , My Web , del.icio.us ), but the results are generally contradictory. Del.icio.us and Jumpcut were purchased. Investors are disappointed with Yahoo's financial performance, which led to a significant reorganization announced recently .
')
Microsoft will launch a service that competes with AdSense, but will not succeed
Come true. Microsoft has launched adCenter , which still poses no real threat to Google AdSense .
MSN search will be more widespread
It did not come true at all. Moreover, the share of MSN in the search engine market has decreased markedly . I even repeat: just amazing how bad things are for MSN.
Microsoft will refuse from Windows Live
It did not come true. A year ago, I wanted to say that Microsoft will not be able to support both brands (MSN and Live), and therefore they will stop at MSN, refusing the costly attempt to start Live from scratch. And in this I was mistaken. Microsoft does not refuse MSN or Live. The company is trying to promote both brands, creating some confusion .
Users will enjoy using tags for images and videos, but not for documents.
For the most part come true. My Web 2.0 , del.icio.us and other document tagging resources do not seem to have a very large audience. The use of tags for images on Flickr and videos on YouTube is quite popular, but even in the case of images and videos, it is not clear how much the users are inspired by the idea of using tags everywhere.
Sites using tags will be full of spam.
It did not come true, at least to the extent that I expected. It seemed to me that Technorati , del.icio.us and Flickr would simply be overwhelmed with spammers posting random tags to their advertisements and other nonsense in an attempt to get visitors. There is spam on Technorati and del.icio.us, but it’s impossible to say that they are full.
Spam bots attack Wikipedia
It did not come true, although that part of the prediction in which it was said that Wikipedia "would prohibit anonymous editing of articles and establish additional control over their changes" almost came true. According to Nick Cara (Nick Carr): “the administrators have adopted official rules, which were called ...“ midfield ”, which does not allow vandals to use an open encyclopedia for their own purposes. And besides, as Eric Goldman notes , it is possible that large spam attacks are just a matter of time.
Yahoo and MSN will start blog search, Technorati and Feedster share will diminish, and Google search will come to the fore
Not true, for the most part. Yahoo and MSN still do not have separate blog search projects, although Ask has launched a similar project. Feedster has serious problems, but Technorati looks surprisingly good against Google Blog Search.
Google will surprise us with a new, more ambitious version of Google Q & A
Not true, at least for now. I was expecting something really impressive in this direction, a service that uses the power of the Google computer network at full capacity, but nothing came of it. At the same time, I should note that hints of the emergence of interesting features still occasionally slip in the speeches of Peter Norvig (Peter Norvig) . Perhaps you just need to wait a bit.
There will be another Internet bubble around personalization, fueled by venture capital investors.
It did not come true. There is interest in new personalization and recommendation companies, as well as the corresponding financial investments, but not on absurdly rash scales that I thought about.
Google News will add recommendations, MSN and Yahoo will experiment with personalization, and all three will focus on targeted advertising
For the most part come true. A section with recommendations based on previously read articles appeared on Google News. AOL has launched a recommended news service on My AOL. Both Yahoo and MSN are conducting the first experiments in the field of behavioral advertising (behavioral targeted advertising), but have not yet achieved significant achievements in comprehensive personalization.
The general passion for application interfaces (APIs) and integrated services ( mashups ) that use them will fall
It did not come true. Rather, the hype is only increasing. As far as I understand, people have not yet been disappointed with the existing limitations or lack of guarantees for uninterrupted operation of interfaces. Perhaps in the future, a single scandal with a drastic change in the rules for using the API or a long interruption in work may be enough.
eBay will stop flourishing and companies will have to make new acquisitions to support growth
Almost come true. The development of the company has slowed. The costly purchase of Skype has limited the enthusiasm for new acquisitions, but eBay still spent $ 2 million to buy Meetup , $ 48 million on Tradera, and entered into an agreement with Google .
Yes, there is practically nothing to brag about. Only one third of the predictions have come true completely or partially. Maybe I should put aside my crystal ball?
The media will go to sharp criticism of Google, the company's shares will fall in price
It did not come true. The press has become more critical of Google, focusing on company management, issues with privacy issues and buying YouTube . At the same time, there were no serious disappointments or scandals, and the share price only increased.
Yahoo will bet on communities, acquire even more start-up companies and practically will not benefit from it
Come true. Yahoo has made an obvious stake in communities and social search ( Yahoo Answers , My Web , del.icio.us ), but the results are generally contradictory. Del.icio.us and Jumpcut were purchased. Investors are disappointed with Yahoo's financial performance, which led to a significant reorganization announced recently .
')
Microsoft will launch a service that competes with AdSense, but will not succeed
Come true. Microsoft has launched adCenter , which still poses no real threat to Google AdSense .
MSN search will be more widespread
It did not come true at all. Moreover, the share of MSN in the search engine market has decreased markedly . I even repeat: just amazing how bad things are for MSN.
Microsoft will refuse from Windows Live
It did not come true. A year ago, I wanted to say that Microsoft will not be able to support both brands (MSN and Live), and therefore they will stop at MSN, refusing the costly attempt to start Live from scratch. And in this I was mistaken. Microsoft does not refuse MSN or Live. The company is trying to promote both brands, creating some confusion .
Users will enjoy using tags for images and videos, but not for documents.
For the most part come true. My Web 2.0 , del.icio.us and other document tagging resources do not seem to have a very large audience. The use of tags for images on Flickr and videos on YouTube is quite popular, but even in the case of images and videos, it is not clear how much the users are inspired by the idea of using tags everywhere.
Sites using tags will be full of spam.
It did not come true, at least to the extent that I expected. It seemed to me that Technorati , del.icio.us and Flickr would simply be overwhelmed with spammers posting random tags to their advertisements and other nonsense in an attempt to get visitors. There is spam on Technorati and del.icio.us, but it’s impossible to say that they are full.
Spam bots attack Wikipedia
It did not come true, although that part of the prediction in which it was said that Wikipedia "would prohibit anonymous editing of articles and establish additional control over their changes" almost came true. According to Nick Cara (Nick Carr): “the administrators have adopted official rules, which were called ...“ midfield ”, which does not allow vandals to use an open encyclopedia for their own purposes. And besides, as Eric Goldman notes , it is possible that large spam attacks are just a matter of time.
Yahoo and MSN will start blog search, Technorati and Feedster share will diminish, and Google search will come to the fore
Not true, for the most part. Yahoo and MSN still do not have separate blog search projects, although Ask has launched a similar project. Feedster has serious problems, but Technorati looks surprisingly good against Google Blog Search.
Google will surprise us with a new, more ambitious version of Google Q & A
Not true, at least for now. I was expecting something really impressive in this direction, a service that uses the power of the Google computer network at full capacity, but nothing came of it. At the same time, I should note that hints of the emergence of interesting features still occasionally slip in the speeches of Peter Norvig (Peter Norvig) . Perhaps you just need to wait a bit.
There will be another Internet bubble around personalization, fueled by venture capital investors.
It did not come true. There is interest in new personalization and recommendation companies, as well as the corresponding financial investments, but not on absurdly rash scales that I thought about.
Google News will add recommendations, MSN and Yahoo will experiment with personalization, and all three will focus on targeted advertising
For the most part come true. A section with recommendations based on previously read articles appeared on Google News. AOL has launched a recommended news service on My AOL. Both Yahoo and MSN are conducting the first experiments in the field of behavioral advertising (behavioral targeted advertising), but have not yet achieved significant achievements in comprehensive personalization.
The general passion for application interfaces (APIs) and integrated services ( mashups ) that use them will fall
It did not come true. Rather, the hype is only increasing. As far as I understand, people have not yet been disappointed with the existing limitations or lack of guarantees for uninterrupted operation of interfaces. Perhaps in the future, a single scandal with a drastic change in the rules for using the API or a long interruption in work may be enough.
eBay will stop flourishing and companies will have to make new acquisitions to support growth
Almost come true. The development of the company has slowed. The costly purchase of Skype has limited the enthusiasm for new acquisitions, but eBay still spent $ 2 million to buy Meetup , $ 48 million on Tradera, and entered into an agreement with Google .
Yes, there is practically nothing to brag about. Only one third of the predictions have come true completely or partially. Maybe I should put aside my crystal ball?
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/30874/
All Articles