Friday format: Mental models or approach to solving complex problems
Mental models are a way of our perception of the world, a set of tools with which we think. Each model offers its own system of views on life, which allows interpreting various real situations.
The term “mental models” was first used by the Scottish psychologist Kenneth Craik in the Nature of Explanation in the mid-20th century. Craik suggested that the brain creates "diminished models of reality" and uses them to evaluate future events.
In total there are tens of thousands of different mental models related to different disciplines, however, as well-known American lawyer and economist Charlie Munger said, “only 80 or 90 basic models can make you an experienced person confidently oriented in 90% of life situations. "
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In this article we will try to highlight some of the most important of them.
/ photo Hey Paul Studios CC
The system approach as a methodical principle is used in various branches of science and human activity. The Australian biologist Ludwig von Bertalanffy is considered the founder of the general theory of systems. He considered the system as a set of interrelated elements, having an outlet (goal), input (resources), communication with the external environment and feedback.
Without the Systems Thinking method, no professional activity can do today. For example, his appointment in project management is to direct the efforts of the manager to the company's system development. He can view the project as a complex system: everything starts with setting and agreeing on a goal, then planning, executing the envisaged work and getting the necessary result.
A systematic approach involves continuous monitoring of the project, identifying deviations from the plan and taking corrective actions (up to a change in the project’s basic parameters agreed with stakeholders: deadlines, budget, characteristics of results and goals).
This is another mental model, which is a process of analyzing possible scenarios for the future. In this case, the experience of the past is used, when the previously established stable trends are studied, that is, in the process of scenario analysis, possible scenarios and turning points related to past events are considered.
Experience shows that it is preferable to simultaneously form three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely, since a larger number of them can lead to incorrect analysis. A project is considered sustainable if under all scenarios it turns out to be efficient and feasible from a financial point of view, and possible adverse consequences are eliminated by measures provided for by organizational and economic mechanisms.
In practice, scenario analysis can be performed using spreadsheets (for example, Excel), or using special computer programs that allow the use of simulation methods (as a variant of Simulink).
Studies of various natural - natural, economic and social - data show that many indicators are distributed precisely in accordance with a power law. Most often, the Pareto law (principle 20/80) is used to illustrate it, which states that 20% of the efforts yield 80% of the result, and the remaining 80% of the efforts - the remaining 20%.
It can be used as a base when analyzing the factors of the effectiveness of any activity and optimizing its results: having correctly selected the minimum set of necessary actions, you can quickly complete a significant part of the project. Moreover, it may turn out that further improvements will be ineffective and unjustified (according to the Pareto curve ).
One of the very first corporations to adopt the 80/20 Principle was the American company IBM. In 1963, IBM employees found that approximately 80% of computer time was spent processing 20% ​​of the teams. The company immediately rewrote the system software in such a way as to make them most effective. This allowed IBM to increase the speed of their computers and overtake competitors.
This law plays an extremely important role in probability theory. The physical quantity is subject to normal distribution when it is influenced by a huge number of random noise. In our reality, this is a fairly frequent phenomenon, because the normal distribution is most common.
Inaccurate modeling methods are based on the central limit theorem , which states that if we add up a set of independent variables with the same distribution and finite variance, the sum will be normally distributed.
Popular psychological tests often use lists of questions, the answers to which are compared with a certain number of points. Depending on the sum of these points, the subject is assigned to one category or another. It turns out that, according to the central limit theorem, if the questions have no meaning and are in no way related to the categories to which the subjects are ranked (that is, the test is false), then the distribution of sums will be approximately normal.
This means that most of the subjects will be assigned to a certain average category. Therefore, if after passing a test, you “hit” in the middle of the scale, then, quite possibly, the normal distribution worked, and the test is useless. Read more about the normal distribution here .
Sensitivity analysis is to assess the impact of changes in the initial parameters of the project on its final characteristics, which, as a rule , use the internal rate of return or net present value (NPV).
The sensitivity analysis is based on the question “What will happen if ...?”, Which is designed to determine how much the project’s effectiveness will change if one of the input parameters deviates from the norm. This type of analysis allows to determine the most critical variables that are most likely to affect the feasibility and effectiveness of the project. The initial variables can be taken as the sales volume, the price per unit of production, the term of payment delays, the rate of inflation, etc.
The results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in tabular or graphical form, although the latter is more illustrative. However, the sensitivity analysis has a serious limitation - it is a single-factor method, therefore it is not applicable in situations when a change in one variable entails a change in another.
This approach allows you to measure the total costs and benefits of a project, using the same unit of measurement (usually money). In the process of analysis, the answer to the following questions is sought: “Is this product or project worth its money?” Or “Which option is most beneficial?”.
The problem when comparing the costs and benefits is that the costs are usually material, specific and expressed in financial indicators (software price, cost of installation services), while the benefits can not always be expressed in monetary terms (improving business efficiency). processes). For this reason, such an analysis should be carried out only if all the involved parameters can be represented “in money”. This is usually not possible when it comes to ethical, internal, temporal and aesthetic components.
This type of simulation is an imitation of the management of any real process or system for some time. Simulation is resorted to in cases where it is not possible to conduct research on a real object or build an analytical model. It turns out that this method is the only practically feasible method intended for the study of complex systems.
The purpose of simulation is to reproduce the behavior of the system based on the results of the analysis of the most significant relationships between its elements. The simulation methodology allows you to build models that describe different processes as they would in reality, making it possible to assess the risks of a large project and minimize losses. The imitation itself is carried out with the help of specialized computer programs, such as Arena from Systems Modeling Corporation.
Pareto optimality is a system state in which the value of each particular indicator cannot be improved without deterioration of the others. In simple words, this is getting the maximum possible benefits from the available resources. To do this, you need to constantly relate the benefits and costs, that is, to behave rationally.
Rational behavior is that the producer and consumer of benefits seek to maximize their benefits and minimize costs. Pareto improvement occurs when a change in the economic situation leads to an improvement in the position of at least one individual without deteriorating the position of another. In other words, these are changes in which no one loses, but at least one wins.
Optimum Pareto is a popular model for performance studies, but is rarely used for social research because it has two drawbacks. Firstly, it does not take into account the distribution of resources between people. As Nobel laureate in economics Amartya Sen wrote, “the state of society may be Pareto optimal, but some may be in extreme poverty and others may swim in luxury, since the poverty of some cannot be mitigated without reducing the level of luxury rich.
Secondly, the optimum Pareto believes that efficiency is achieved spontaneously, without government intervention, and this does not always correspond to the real state of affairs. You can read more about the Pareto efficiency here .
The action of each of the above mental models goes beyond one particular discipline. For example, Pareto's law finds application in management, economics, commerce, and other areas.
“Models must be borrowed from various disciplines, because the wisdom of the world is not contained in the only academic department,” writes Charles Munger in his autobiographical book Poor Charlie's Almanac (The Almanac of the Poor).
The secret of success lies in having as many models as possible, otherwise you risk being in the situation described by Maslow: “For a man with a hammer, any problem looks like a nail.”
Mental models will help to see the situation from a different angle and solve the seemingly difficult task. The effect of their use is especially noticeable when, as a result of mental training, you get the ability to see several solutions to a problem at once.
There is no universal method, however, having mastered several mental models, you will be able to choose the most effective one according to the situation. Try to look at things in a new way - this is the best approach to overcoming difficulties.
PS A couple of additional materials on the topic from our blog on Habré:
PPS Materials on the development of our IaaS provider:
The term “mental models” was first used by the Scottish psychologist Kenneth Craik in the Nature of Explanation in the mid-20th century. Craik suggested that the brain creates "diminished models of reality" and uses them to evaluate future events.
In total there are tens of thousands of different mental models related to different disciplines, however, as well-known American lawyer and economist Charlie Munger said, “only 80 or 90 basic models can make you an experienced person confidently oriented in 90% of life situations. "
')
In this article we will try to highlight some of the most important of them.
/ photo Hey Paul Studios CC
Systems approach ( Systems Thinking )
The system approach as a methodical principle is used in various branches of science and human activity. The Australian biologist Ludwig von Bertalanffy is considered the founder of the general theory of systems. He considered the system as a set of interrelated elements, having an outlet (goal), input (resources), communication with the external environment and feedback.
Without the Systems Thinking method, no professional activity can do today. For example, his appointment in project management is to direct the efforts of the manager to the company's system development. He can view the project as a complex system: everything starts with setting and agreeing on a goal, then planning, executing the envisaged work and getting the necessary result.
A systematic approach involves continuous monitoring of the project, identifying deviations from the plan and taking corrective actions (up to a change in the project’s basic parameters agreed with stakeholders: deadlines, budget, characteristics of results and goals).
Scenario analysis
This is another mental model, which is a process of analyzing possible scenarios for the future. In this case, the experience of the past is used, when the previously established stable trends are studied, that is, in the process of scenario analysis, possible scenarios and turning points related to past events are considered.
Experience shows that it is preferable to simultaneously form three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely, since a larger number of them can lead to incorrect analysis. A project is considered sustainable if under all scenarios it turns out to be efficient and feasible from a financial point of view, and possible adverse consequences are eliminated by measures provided for by organizational and economic mechanisms.
In practice, scenario analysis can be performed using spreadsheets (for example, Excel), or using special computer programs that allow the use of simulation methods (as a variant of Simulink).
Exponential (power) law ( Power law )
Studies of various natural - natural, economic and social - data show that many indicators are distributed precisely in accordance with a power law. Most often, the Pareto law (principle 20/80) is used to illustrate it, which states that 20% of the efforts yield 80% of the result, and the remaining 80% of the efforts - the remaining 20%.
It can be used as a base when analyzing the factors of the effectiveness of any activity and optimizing its results: having correctly selected the minimum set of necessary actions, you can quickly complete a significant part of the project. Moreover, it may turn out that further improvements will be ineffective and unjustified (according to the Pareto curve ).
One of the very first corporations to adopt the 80/20 Principle was the American company IBM. In 1963, IBM employees found that approximately 80% of computer time was spent processing 20% ​​of the teams. The company immediately rewrote the system software in such a way as to make them most effective. This allowed IBM to increase the speed of their computers and overtake competitors.
Normal Distribution Law
This law plays an extremely important role in probability theory. The physical quantity is subject to normal distribution when it is influenced by a huge number of random noise. In our reality, this is a fairly frequent phenomenon, because the normal distribution is most common.
Inaccurate modeling methods are based on the central limit theorem , which states that if we add up a set of independent variables with the same distribution and finite variance, the sum will be normally distributed.
Popular psychological tests often use lists of questions, the answers to which are compared with a certain number of points. Depending on the sum of these points, the subject is assigned to one category or another. It turns out that, according to the central limit theorem, if the questions have no meaning and are in no way related to the categories to which the subjects are ranked (that is, the test is false), then the distribution of sums will be approximately normal.
This means that most of the subjects will be assigned to a certain average category. Therefore, if after passing a test, you “hit” in the middle of the scale, then, quite possibly, the normal distribution worked, and the test is useless. Read more about the normal distribution here .
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis is to assess the impact of changes in the initial parameters of the project on its final characteristics, which, as a rule , use the internal rate of return or net present value (NPV).
The sensitivity analysis is based on the question “What will happen if ...?”, Which is designed to determine how much the project’s effectiveness will change if one of the input parameters deviates from the norm. This type of analysis allows to determine the most critical variables that are most likely to affect the feasibility and effectiveness of the project. The initial variables can be taken as the sales volume, the price per unit of production, the term of payment delays, the rate of inflation, etc.
The results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in tabular or graphical form, although the latter is more illustrative. However, the sensitivity analysis has a serious limitation - it is a single-factor method, therefore it is not applicable in situations when a change in one variable entails a change in another.
Cost-benefit analysis ( Cost-benefit Analysis )
This approach allows you to measure the total costs and benefits of a project, using the same unit of measurement (usually money). In the process of analysis, the answer to the following questions is sought: “Is this product or project worth its money?” Or “Which option is most beneficial?”.
The problem when comparing the costs and benefits is that the costs are usually material, specific and expressed in financial indicators (software price, cost of installation services), while the benefits can not always be expressed in monetary terms (improving business efficiency). processes). For this reason, such an analysis should be carried out only if all the involved parameters can be represented “in money”. This is usually not possible when it comes to ethical, internal, temporal and aesthetic components.
Simulation modeling
This type of simulation is an imitation of the management of any real process or system for some time. Simulation is resorted to in cases where it is not possible to conduct research on a real object or build an analytical model. It turns out that this method is the only practically feasible method intended for the study of complex systems.
The purpose of simulation is to reproduce the behavior of the system based on the results of the analysis of the most significant relationships between its elements. The simulation methodology allows you to build models that describe different processes as they would in reality, making it possible to assess the risks of a large project and minimize losses. The imitation itself is carried out with the help of specialized computer programs, such as Arena from Systems Modeling Corporation.
Pareto Efficiency (Optimality) ( Pareto Efficiency )
Pareto optimality is a system state in which the value of each particular indicator cannot be improved without deterioration of the others. In simple words, this is getting the maximum possible benefits from the available resources. To do this, you need to constantly relate the benefits and costs, that is, to behave rationally.
Rational behavior is that the producer and consumer of benefits seek to maximize their benefits and minimize costs. Pareto improvement occurs when a change in the economic situation leads to an improvement in the position of at least one individual without deteriorating the position of another. In other words, these are changes in which no one loses, but at least one wins.
Optimum Pareto is a popular model for performance studies, but is rarely used for social research because it has two drawbacks. Firstly, it does not take into account the distribution of resources between people. As Nobel laureate in economics Amartya Sen wrote, “the state of society may be Pareto optimal, but some may be in extreme poverty and others may swim in luxury, since the poverty of some cannot be mitigated without reducing the level of luxury rich.
Secondly, the optimum Pareto believes that efficiency is achieved spontaneously, without government intervention, and this does not always correspond to the real state of affairs. You can read more about the Pareto efficiency here .
Conclusion
The action of each of the above mental models goes beyond one particular discipline. For example, Pareto's law finds application in management, economics, commerce, and other areas.
“Models must be borrowed from various disciplines, because the wisdom of the world is not contained in the only academic department,” writes Charles Munger in his autobiographical book Poor Charlie's Almanac (The Almanac of the Poor).
The secret of success lies in having as many models as possible, otherwise you risk being in the situation described by Maslow: “For a man with a hammer, any problem looks like a nail.”
Mental models will help to see the situation from a different angle and solve the seemingly difficult task. The effect of their use is especially noticeable when, as a result of mental training, you get the ability to see several solutions to a problem at once.
There is no universal method, however, having mastered several mental models, you will be able to choose the most effective one according to the situation. Try to look at things in a new way - this is the best approach to overcoming difficulties.
PS A couple of additional materials on the topic from our blog on Habré:
- Scientists again "puzzled": Is it possible to upgrade the brain and what to expect from it
- "Closer to the people": Does the manager need to understand programming
PPS Materials on the development of our IaaS provider:
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/308552/
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