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Green, Surgeon and Pudding: thinking out loud about it’s prospects in Russia

I really want to write about my projects, share analysis of useful data and talk about the nuances of IT legislation. But: despite the fact that many business books and entrepreneurs themselves advocate that “there are no problems, there are difficulties that need to be fixed,” in fact, there are problems in this world and they also need to be solved . Silence, however, leads to an exponential increase in complexity, which at a certain point becomes critical and destroys the system. In a word, there is no difference between pessimists and optimists: both of them distort reality too much.

This post is about problems and how they could be solved. While - conceptually. In general, the third article on the topic. The most difficult: article-reflection.

questions from menascope

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The first problem is green

This, of course, about Sberbank : literally last week, the e-commerce news channel heard that amid the general mini-crisis in the banking sector (which, however, the head of VTB did not recognize) showed a profit of 100,000,000,000 rubles . The total profitability of the banks is 109,000,000,000, that is, the others - less than 9,000,000,000. That is, less.

It is clear that the shares of the Security Council of the Russian Federation are growing (see Chart No. 1), because there is gold on the exchange, probably already even platinum, the rule is: if you do not know where to invest money on the MICEX, buy Sberbank shares. I will not develop this thesis: but even in the crisis of 2008–2009, when stocks did not reach the bottom, it was this simple technique that helped me earn my first dividends.

Sberbank shares on menascope

But I do not leave the idea that the state. corporations (first of all, Rosneft, VTB, Sberbank, and others) make money on the dollar rate: they buy when it is cheap, they sell it — when it’s expensive. At least here is the second graph and compare it with the first one, in my opinion, quite easy.

dollar exchange rate on menascope

It would be nothing bad if it were not for the two “buts”: first, Sberbank is absolutely state-owned, which means that the state itself earns on what introduces society into an economic collapse, but at the same time tries to make good money on it; secondly, this week the Security Council , after the previous news, it is extremely important, announced that ... it lowers the rates on deposits , including in Russian rubles. In my opinion - comments in this case are superfluous. However, I could be wrong.

I’m not mistaken about one thing exactly: the Security Council of the Russian Federation occupies up to 45% of the deposit market, more than one third of the credit market, and still, it still manages to take 1% from each transfer outside the region . And it is the largest bank in transactions of individuals. How much is one percent? Yes. Only 100 people are needed (however, mathematicians will correct me, which is less), so that the amount inside the Security Council turns into zero. This is what the head of WebMoney once said, explaining why we need the well-known rate of 0.8%.

And all this against the background of what the Central Bank does with banks and NPOs: in essence, we ourselves preserve the market, which initially has to be the most high-tech.

I will give just one, but very significant, example : connection to acquiring. How long does the check take? At best, 2 weeks (only the bank to which it sent the application on Friday did not answer me: RosEvro, although they claim that the total connection period is 14 days, however, let it be an error). At worst - 6 months. For example, once Ruslavbank checked the company I represented exactly six months. But what exactly is included in this test?

Check the data on the passport - 1 minute, according to the extract of the bailiffs - no more than an hour, checking at the addresses of mass registration - 5 minutes, checking by searching - no more than an hour, checking the Unified State Register - 1 minute. In addition, banks have the ability to check credit history (for example, founders, CEO, etc.), this is another 15 minutes. You can check many more, but in most cases, all this is automated: for example, telephone numbers, postal address and etc. What can be checked for 12 more days? In fact, 12 days is only for template cases .

And at the same time, the biggest laundering goes through the banks anyway . In short, the drops of documents are more often better than those of ordinary entrepreneurs , which, unfortunately, are not so advanced in accounting and jurisprudence. The second place is occupied by the Post of the Russian Federation, again - without comment, but we are talking about billions, even rubles. And if you compare how much drugs you bought for Bitcoin and, say, for Qiwi (with the help of Qiwi) and even more so for cash, even here the phrase “at times” would be appropriate. I will mention (due to the volume) about the mobile operators, who do nothing for the development of the anti-fraud, only briefly.

It is in such trifles that the main brake lies on it in Russia : the inertia of what has already been done is too strong. This is reminiscent of the R. Bradbury society, where the Martians considered all the earthlings who arrived to be crazy illusions and therefore simply killed.

Problem two - surgical

And again I speak directly about the Surgeon, a well-known associate of our President, who, as we know from the popular (?) Film, played a significant role in the history of Crimea (it’s impossible to omit this thesis because of the context of the article, but I’m not going to touch on politics).

This very man recently called for “suffering the Plato system, since the country is in a difficult situation. For me, this thesis is not clear, because for patience we had to have a huge stabilization fund , which now doesn’t mean the laziest (it’s pretty easy to calculate its size if you look at the oil chart and take 20-25 dollars, or , “As it should be”, 80-85), but at the same time, I do not get tired of repeating, this fund actually burned in the “junk” mortgage papers on the 08th, in the offshore “default” in Cyprus and other very unpleasant phenomena, but it affected the freezing pensions and on strengthening fees (such as: overhaul levy, then as Plato, evaluation of jobs until 2018, changing the flow returns to the Pension Fund and other funds, etc.). This is done because taxes need to be introduced in the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, but to make a tech rent (or even without an epithet) can be done by much simpler actions. Moreover, the Constitutional Court was not for nothing planted in St. Petersburg.

Menascope oil graph

Part Three - Interrogative

And now briefly about the main thing. First, the web has already passed the news of how the Central Bank works in good faith: yes, I mean the closure of Intellektmani and Robokassa for physicists and individual entrepreneurs (which was predictable ). While typing text closed and ibank.

And here it is necessary to stop and tell a little about Baikal . Let me explain: not so long ago, with my old comrade, I went to Bolshaya Goloustnoye - to try out new equipment on the rocks. On the way back we stopped at a roadside cafe, which is located right in the national park with a beautiful view of the deepest lake in the world. We drank a cup of tea with lemon and he received messages for the day (there was almost no communication in the mountains). One of the last - from a common friend, who works in the tax and one brings up her son. Her comment concerned just the question of what to pay a fee for capital construction (in one of the long tapes of social networks, as I understand it). I asked my counterpart: “how much is it, in general, this collection?”. It turned out that something about 150 rubles . Unfortunately, I still can not confirm this: the apartment is on the design.

Big goloustnoye

And at this very moment I realized that our economy is very close to a critical point : if people start discussing even such amounts, it means that something wrong is going on in their minds.

He immediately remembered another one of our common acquaintances who work in taxis: as you know, the state, especially after the arrival of Uber , decided to tightly regulate this industry (in particular, projects like “Maxim”). At the same time, as a fellow driver noted to me, there are more than 300,000 cars in Irkutsk, and that’s not counting motorcycles (and it’s not a little driving through the main streets since April). So they take a tax from everyone: as you know, you cannot get away with non-payment here, since they block the account / card and take one of their own. And now, by the way, can deprive and control the vehicle. But at the same time, the roads every year, beginning with the 350th anniversary (five years ago) of the city, become only worse: so much that this pandemic affected everyone this year (the problem was discussed in the last conversation of the head of state).

At the same time, according to statistics, 2015 was a turning point (and, I hope, my colleagues will soon complete their excellent article on this trend): people began to buy more and more online in China . Yes, Chinese goods from China are worse than Chinese goods from the USA or Europe, but the choice is not great due to the dollar rate and the notorious sanctions. And just that moment came when people who came to the network 1-3 years ago learned how to make purchases (as a rule, this time is usually necessary).

Runet's audience

To summarize, this model is obtained: despite the fact that the tax for individual entrepreneurs in the Russian Federation is minimal (6% + fees + servicing the account and a small accounting outsourcing), the guarantees that are acquired for this tax are even less than the tax itself . In addition, neither this nor other taxes, which are paid as a result by 1 person (the same IP, owning a car or living in an apartment), do not solve any problems : neither logistics, on the contrary, the ubiquitous Russian Post also increases turnover, but introduces preferences specifically for large players, who at the same time work at a loss, and creating your own logistics for individual entrepreneurs or even a small LLC is absurd (and in Siberia, where online is simply frozen due to transport problems, this issue for e-commerce is in many respects a key : highly recommend to get acquainted with the thesis closer examining at least through the search description of the road through the same or Toulon Zabaikalye); no issues of "iron", since its not there, and the west does not become cheaper; no issues of common development (just last week, most of the projects of Rosnano were recognized as unprofitable , however, it is worth remembering Skolkovo, who has scored the edge of teeth, just here); neither financial accounting (for example, for me is still a big question, why change the form of the declaration every time? or why even with EDS a number of actions have to be done on paper in 2016 (!) year? about the courts, especially general jurisdiction, when it comes to It’s about consumer protection, for example, I’ll keep silence: the word progress is simply not appropriate here).

In short, people do not understand what they pay for 6%, 13%, 18% or even 150 rubles . They do not understand, because the tax that a monopolist company must pay for extracting the same oil actually lies in the cost of gasoline. Transport tax - see above. And now here’s Plato’s technology. But this is a whole industry, road maintenance, which includes just a lot of opportunities for IT: take at least columns with solar panels that have just appeared in my region. If you look at the numbers, how many were “knocked out” (you just can't pick up another word) - it becomes uneasy.

Exactly the same thing with the work of many online entrepreneurs (beginners for the most part) as individuals: people are just used to looking for methods so that they don’t share with the state, and not vice versa. At the same time, any schemes when people share - the state is trying to monopolize and lose . Here and now, the physicists of Robokassa are divided into 2 camps: one goes to the white and fluffy processing, and the others go abroad. And the latter, at least, not less. I have already given examples, I will not repeat. After all, the law itself has been created in such a way that you can become an entrepreneur when there is profit (and the tax authorities can reveal this issue to you in 777 aspects, doing everything so that taxes are “consolidated”, even if your business is just a matter for the soul and you do not bake pancakes for pennies), while an individual is talking about income. There is simply no transitional form. There are USN and individual entrepreneurs, but even they are afraid of many: just look at the closure statistics after raising payments to the Pension Fund a few years ago (the schedule is not mine, but it should be shown in this section, since the losses for the microbusiness were significant). The state simply checked: how long can the pedal of fees survive?

SP according to Menascope

In short, people lack elementary guarantees. And what to do? As you know, criticism in itself does not produce anything. In my opinion, it is precisely in this aspect in the it sphere that the greatest prospects for Russia are :

Firstly, Russian programmers are among the most sought after in the world . The same thesis was confirmed, though not beloved by me, but very developed from the point of view of economic indicators, E. Kaspersky . Silicon Valley can also confirm this (however, in this case, links can be selected ten times more). And this must be used: the era of magnetism is coming, the connection between the ideal and the material through digital and therefore not using the intellectual potential of creative engineers of Russia is a sin.

Secondly, the state does not need to deal with p2p (be it a taxi “Maxim”, bitcoin, messengers, torrents or something else), you need to learn how to take it from the ready one . The United States, for example, does it well, although I don’t like (it) the state. And not only them. The fact that people will always look for cost optimization is one thing, and where, how and why is the second . Unfortunately, we do not have this gradation. Because of this, the budget is bursting at the seams, and start-ups are simply a fashionable phenomenon that attracts investments for the sake of growing a share, not profit. Hence, the famous smoothies and TOP-100 e-commerce projects, where inept businessmen rule the ball, but they are excellent machinists like Ozone, Enter, and the like.

Thirdly, the procedure for registering trademarks, computer programs” (in my opinion, the talking name) and, in general, the entire turnover of public services must also be simplified and made online in its full cycle . Today, even opening an account on the Internet is still under discussion, not to mention the requirements of the Federal Tax Service that “the agreement should be only on paper”. But you don’t even need to do anything: everything is already written in the Civil Code, you just don’t need to patch it with special laws on “cash substitutes”, “payment system”, “commodity aggregators”, “national cryptosystem” and so forth., Etc., etc. It is enough to let the market work and then it will appear in the distant future (whatever it is now) one of the world's first WebMoney payment, one of the largest services on the Planet - Yandex , unique ABBYY, and at least Dr.Web and Kaspersky (listed I don’t like them in general, but this doesn’t mean their performance indicators). The guys started working in the 90s, and today the situation, from a legal point of view, is much worse. Just at times. Freedom of contract with each passing year becomes a category of legal abstractions and even fictions , and interference in private affairs becomes the norm, and not the exception.

Fourthly, since in fact you need to look for money, you need to look for them in big business, which often goes on the territory of the Russian Federation and lives out (from memory of the same banks that are directly related to IT, this is O. Tinkov, M Friedman, yes, what is there, even if the head of xsolla has long been living far beyond the borders of Perm). And to search not with searches in “Sistema” or “Oneksime”, but with legal, profitable methods, and not with methods that are aimed at patching holes in the state. budget.

Fifthly, in order to prove to business that investment in Russia is safe, you need to build a process in which everyone, even the smallest player, will be sure that his contributions go to his pension, his taxes go state. employees , who then meet him with a smile (even if “glued”), and do not yell at any error, as it happens in the FTS, and in arbitration, and, of course, in the RF Post, in the absence of postmen in which - always there is a client's fault. More precisely, no: absolutely always .

Otherwise, any start-ups (no matter how much I love this word again) simply cannot be born: because people who solve problems, do not plan to implement new opportunities. And this is our main problem. IT-areas in the first place, since innovations require investment and stability. Neither one nor the other is now: if a person does not have his own roof, then, as a rule, there is no growing family.

After

"... I thought about it, breathing in the clean air, which absorbed the melting ice of clear water, strong sun and ancient forests. We got up, thanked for the hospitality, got into the car and headed home.

The departure was overshadowed by the fact that a tick rushed at me from the headrest, already in the car, which apparently caught on one of the backpacks. Removed the bloodsucker quickly and without consequences. But all the way, as always in such cases, I had the feeling that another parasite was scouring my body in search of breakfast: exactly the same thing happens with our business, which sees nothing in reforms but a tick, a creature which was created, as my comrade correctly noted, as an “absolute predator” who does nothing but drink blood and transmit diseases. The only difference is that in nature, communication is more complicated, and globally even viruses play a positive role . "

Hopefully, Russia’s will be able to unfold this trend-tradition and direct it in the right direction. I hope these thoughts will be perceived as an opinion that it is sometimes useful to get out of your comfort, work and co-residence zone to see that the world has changed a bit.

PS And the pudding on the Harba sites is not discussed: not a culinary theme.

Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/300416/


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