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Lecture 2 of 10. Seven kinds of hypotheses





For rapid growth, Internet companies need to test hypotheses. To systematize experiments and associate team actions with analytical data, you can use hopox . However, he himself does not come up with a hypothesis.



Below we analyze seven types of hypotheses so that it is clear which direction to conduct the experiments.



Today there will be a lot of cases. Immediately to the point.

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Experiments can be with attraction channels, sales funnels, monetization, user behavior, product recommendation methods, active customer retention mechanisms, resurrection of abandoned customers, etc.



You can divide the field of experimentation with the help of Dave McClure's Pirate Metrics: Attraction, Activation, Hold, Virality, Income. These five steps describe the path of the user who is able to give maximum value to the business.



1. Hypotheses of attraction


- hypotheses, testing channels of attraction to the product.

We are constantly changing something in the channels of attraction. However, now all actions are tied to the results in numbers. Depending on the channel, actions can vary greatly, but the key metrics for success are the number of impressions, audience reach and number of clicks to the site.



Channel examples:



Contextual advertising:

  1. “If we change the quick links in the ad, we will increase the CTR by 2%”,
  2. “If you connect a broker rates, the cost of the transition will decrease by 20%”
  3. “If we add a price to the ad, we will get a paying audience, increase the cost of attracting a user to 25 rubles, but the conversion to the purchase on the website will increase to 7%”




SMM:

  1. “If we do a post-interview with a well-known market expert, we will get more than 200 reposts”
  2. “If you make one humorous post per day, then we will increase the number of subscribers in two weeks by 400 people”




Email marketing:

  1. “If we change the title in the letter, then we will get a conversion to read letters more than 60%”
  2. “If we offer a discount on the 20th day after the activation, we will receive a conversion conversion to the purchase page of 15%”




Hypothesis: If we add numbers to the headline of the article and instead of “A simple test that increases the number of our subscribers” publish “A simple test that increases the number of our subscribers by 30%”, then we will increase the number of subscribers by 40%.

Alex Turnbull, Groove is a SaaS service that implements helpdesk solutions for small businesses.



2. Activation hypotheses


- hypotheses for testing the first successful user experience.

Hypothesis success metrics: Number of pages viewed for content projects, filling in a profile for SaaS, adding to the basket, but most often this is a visitor's email.



Hypothesis: “If one of the four fields in the activation form is removed, the conversion will increase by 26%”

This is a real case of Neil Patel (Neil Patel), a famous marketer and founder of the services QuickSprout, Kissmetrics, CrazyEgg and Hello Bar.



3. Retention Hypotheses


- Growth hypotheses for creating the habit of using a product and service.

It is important to know that an increase in retention of 5% increases profits by an average of 25-95%. Later there will be a separate lecture on retention hypotheses with a description of the universal mechanism. In the meantime, one familiar case.



Hypothesis: “If every time we notify users by email that someone marked it in a photo, then the CTR will be approximately 75%,” Facebook.



4. Virality hypotheses


Hypotheses to attract new customers with existing ones. There are three types of virality: built-in, artificial, and dress. But about this in the following lectures, but for now a couple of cases from the King of virality DropBox:

The functionality of inviting friends from social networks, emailing and importing contacts gave up to 30 million invitations sent in the first 30 days after launch.

referral program that allows you to increase the volume of your disk, for inviting a friend, contributed to the growth of the audience by 60%



5. Monetization hypotheses


Hypotheses test how to effectively translate active users into paying customers.



Hypothesis: “If we reduce the trial version from 30 to 14 days, then we will increase the conversion into sales at the end of the trial by 102%”.

QuickSprout Case



6. Value Hypotheses


All five of these types of Eric Ries relates to growth hypotheses, which are aimed at product development. He also highlights a large pool of business development hypotheses — value hypotheses.



Value hypotheses test the value proposition for different segments. These hypotheses are relevant for startups and companies with a new product and will not be discussed in these lectures.



7. Management hypotheses


The hypotheses associated with the focusing of the team for a long time around one key metric.







Homework:

Try to create at least 10 hypotheses in the marketing tool hopox for 2-3 for each direction of business development: Attraction, Activation, Retention, Virality, Monetization.



List of lectures:

Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/299882/

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