Is there room for man in the computer future?
Manages one who correctly predicts
Each of us controls our lives better or worse. And professional managers know that the one who has more horizon planning and planning more precisely manages more effectively.
The interaction of man and computer in modern society, in the era of information, is of particular importance, and the question itself has a special meaning, and the content of this future depends on how accurately we predict our possible options for future development.
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We decided to look at the situation with a fresh look and analyze the potential of the most discussed options for the development of information technology.
Who remembers the times of Netscape?
Anyone who can remember the reasons why the more advanced browser Netscape lost the battle of Internet Explorer, remember that at that moment, namely in the mid-90s, analysts disagreed on how the Internet will develop and how the Internet will work through five years. The community was hotly debating about the future architecture of computer communications. Then Microsoft made a bet on the architecture of the webtop, took a chance and won.
Today the information technology industry seems to be facing a similar moment. There are disputes about how the user experience will look like in five years, where the traffic will go, which technologies will be in demand, which websites will work and so on.
Again, the future business results of companies and even, perhaps, entire industries depend on the one who guesses and who misses.
Scenario 1. Mobility above all
A very popular hypothesis today is the assumption that after 2-3 years all traffic and all user actions will irrevocably go to the “mobile”. This implies that businessmen will make decisions about cooperation with business partners, surfing the sites on their mobile and sending their applications to mobile widgets.
The situation now: contrary to the assumptions of mobile evangelists today, there is a fairly clear separation between the ways or scenarios of sales of B2C and B2B. When selling in B2C mobile traffic gives the result in the form of real sales. When selling in B2B, mobile technologies, at best, serve as a “front end” of a progressive company that cares about the convenience of communicating with it and tracking trends. However, until now, mobile history has not been convincingly implemented as a sales channel in B2B. Correct me if I'm wrong.
What prevents domination: the “general mobilization” scenario, in our opinion, is hampered by the fact that complex services, in particular B2B services, cannot be sold at least effectively through mobile.
Scenario 2. Three-dimensional augmented reality
The idea of ​​three-dimensionality has taken its firm place in the ranks of information technology of another two-dimensional era. So, on two-dimensional screens, three-dimensional design, a 3D image and a cubic representation of data have spread widely.
The situation now: Appearing in the 2000s, the trend is successfully developing. A number of devices with gesture recognition have already been successfully commercialized, KINECT technology is widely mastered in all new devices, technologies of holographic image representation have been developed, and leading world IT corporations are investing huge amounts of money in creating 3D data presentation technologies.
What prevents domination: These technologies obviously have one clear limitation: they all require enough space for themselves to be convenient to use. In addition, the three-dimensional representation and management of objects has another genetic vulnerability: to be technically possible, this technology must be very sensitive, and it is this sensitivity that can make its use inconvenient.
An important limitation for the mass distribution of three-dimensional representation and data management technologies could be smog in cities, especially in Asian ones. Those who have been to Delhi or Beijing will agree with the rather vague promising three-dimensional images in the Asian air.
Scenario 3. Computer-human society
We can all become androids, says a certain social group of a globalized community. Freaks-radicals emit in Youtube videos of their experiments with the implantation of individual components of calculating iron. Chiping has already captured a significant share of world passports, has spread to domestic animals and is actively promoted, for example, in the United States.
What is there to talk! Recall the textbook footage of Neo’s first virtual fight with Morpheus, when Neo, with somewhat puberty, joyful pride, told an experienced mentor: “I know Kung Fu.”
The situation now: For many cyber-freaks, geeks, gamers, IT autists quote "I know Kung Fu" and with it the ideas of androidization-chipization became a propaganda slogan, hypnotizing mantra, which prompted them to experiment with their career, with their social environment, with your mind and even with your body.
Whether androidization will become a truly mass trend will, of course, only time will tell, but there are enough reasons to believe that rather this trend, like many other fashion trends, will obey the law of normal distribution.
What prevents domination: for ten to twenty years, that is, a nanosecond by the standards of the Universe, voluntary android people who have appeared can perform on the social stage, show their merits, fully reveal their shortcomings and, like a hippie of the 70s of the twentieth century, become overcooked intellectual knowledge of society. The idea of ​​implanting a super-powered chip for every reasonable person implies the idea that this chip can be turned off or blown up right in the head.
Does anyone remember how wildly popular the crusaders were once in Europe?
Scenario 4. Society of robots
Finally, the already-mentioned film The Matrix, and a number of other films before it, examines the motive of society under the dictates of robots and computers. World exchanges are already controlled by robot programs, time is calculated by a computer, drones and anthropomorphic robots are used in the army, not to mention the automation of the production of goods.
If humanity once loses its mind, then losing control of life, giving it to artificial intelligence, will be a real alternative. And then the technological path of development and the natural self-destruction of civilization can also be real.
The situation now: the well-known company Boston Dynamics recently presented its “Atlas”, a humanoid robot, to the public.
What prevents domination: the mind of the common part of humanity suggests that it is reasonable to have fears of the complete freedom of artificial intelligence.
Scenario 5. Flexible, thought-driven portable devices
So, imagine. In one city, we are pleased to deploy your desktop in all its three-dimensional convenience and magnificence, and in another city you can look at it only through a narrow window of a mobile gadget. Imagine that machines can understand not only our gestures, but also thoughts. And yet all these functions are still in different technologies and devices.
Remember, once, quite recently, roomy music players, surfing devices on the Internet and devices for making calls were sold in the form of three different types of devices?
The development of information technology clearly indicates that sooner or later the main computer device will be a compact mobile device capable of presenting the data in a three-dimensional way by the owner in the air, on its screen surface or on any flat surface around. And this device will be controlled by touch, gestures and thoughts.
A future new, outstanding IT company that will again change user experience will produce supercompact mobile computing projects with touch, gestures and thoughts.
What will the sales technology look like in the computer infrastructure of the future?
If the development of computer technology avoids the deadlock of androidization, copes with the risk of losing control over robots and realizes that mobile two-dimensional limits, if portable devices appear that can flexibly display data in 2D and 3D, new horizons will open up for sales technologies.
Here are five of the possible trends that we believe will soon become a reality.
1. Marketing sites will use three-dimensional virtual assistants with artificial intelligence that will help you navigate the site and answer questions. Some companies will take to create their well-known models, and some - their employees. To increase the depth of views and increase the conversion of the site, these three-dimensional virtual assistants will be widely used, actively and sensibly advising visitors.
2. Sites will receive a new function "show in the air" (show on air) - a button to switch the display from two-dimensional on the screen to three-dimensional in the air or in your stereo glasses.
3. A new file format for 3D brochures displayed in the air or in stereo glasses will appear.
4. When presenting products, three-dimensional animation and “password effects” will be widely used with the ability to “twist” the thing in front of you and, if necessary, disassemble it into details.
5. For a short time can become popular services to work with abandoned baskets, providing calls to visitors with an abandoned basket on behalf of a three-dimensional virtual assistant. For a while it will give a wow-effect, but will quickly cause a negative, because the robot can never reproduce the warmth of human communication. The emergence of stable negative connotations in the expression “virtual assistant” and negative expressions like 'vAss' is not excluded.
Man picks
Good news. Our future will be chosen by us. It is each person who will vote for one or another path of development with his choice.
At this moment it is especially important that everyone remembers what it means to be human.
Each of us controls our lives better or worse. And professional managers know that the one who has more horizon planning and planning more precisely manages more effectively.
The interaction of man and computer in modern society, in the era of information, is of particular importance, and the question itself has a special meaning, and the content of this future depends on how accurately we predict our possible options for future development.
')
We decided to look at the situation with a fresh look and analyze the potential of the most discussed options for the development of information technology.
Who remembers the times of Netscape?
Anyone who can remember the reasons why the more advanced browser Netscape lost the battle of Internet Explorer, remember that at that moment, namely in the mid-90s, analysts disagreed on how the Internet will develop and how the Internet will work through five years. The community was hotly debating about the future architecture of computer communications. Then Microsoft made a bet on the architecture of the webtop, took a chance and won.
Today the information technology industry seems to be facing a similar moment. There are disputes about how the user experience will look like in five years, where the traffic will go, which technologies will be in demand, which websites will work and so on.
Again, the future business results of companies and even, perhaps, entire industries depend on the one who guesses and who misses.
Scenario 1. Mobility above all
A very popular hypothesis today is the assumption that after 2-3 years all traffic and all user actions will irrevocably go to the “mobile”. This implies that businessmen will make decisions about cooperation with business partners, surfing the sites on their mobile and sending their applications to mobile widgets.
The situation now: contrary to the assumptions of mobile evangelists today, there is a fairly clear separation between the ways or scenarios of sales of B2C and B2B. When selling in B2C mobile traffic gives the result in the form of real sales. When selling in B2B, mobile technologies, at best, serve as a “front end” of a progressive company that cares about the convenience of communicating with it and tracking trends. However, until now, mobile history has not been convincingly implemented as a sales channel in B2B. Correct me if I'm wrong.
What prevents domination: the “general mobilization” scenario, in our opinion, is hampered by the fact that complex services, in particular B2B services, cannot be sold at least effectively through mobile.
Scenario 2. Three-dimensional augmented reality
The idea of ​​three-dimensionality has taken its firm place in the ranks of information technology of another two-dimensional era. So, on two-dimensional screens, three-dimensional design, a 3D image and a cubic representation of data have spread widely.
The situation now: Appearing in the 2000s, the trend is successfully developing. A number of devices with gesture recognition have already been successfully commercialized, KINECT technology is widely mastered in all new devices, technologies of holographic image representation have been developed, and leading world IT corporations are investing huge amounts of money in creating 3D data presentation technologies.
What prevents domination: These technologies obviously have one clear limitation: they all require enough space for themselves to be convenient to use. In addition, the three-dimensional representation and management of objects has another genetic vulnerability: to be technically possible, this technology must be very sensitive, and it is this sensitivity that can make its use inconvenient.
An important limitation for the mass distribution of three-dimensional representation and data management technologies could be smog in cities, especially in Asian ones. Those who have been to Delhi or Beijing will agree with the rather vague promising three-dimensional images in the Asian air.
Scenario 3. Computer-human society
We can all become androids, says a certain social group of a globalized community. Freaks-radicals emit in Youtube videos of their experiments with the implantation of individual components of calculating iron. Chiping has already captured a significant share of world passports, has spread to domestic animals and is actively promoted, for example, in the United States.
What is there to talk! Recall the textbook footage of Neo’s first virtual fight with Morpheus, when Neo, with somewhat puberty, joyful pride, told an experienced mentor: “I know Kung Fu.”
The situation now: For many cyber-freaks, geeks, gamers, IT autists quote "I know Kung Fu" and with it the ideas of androidization-chipization became a propaganda slogan, hypnotizing mantra, which prompted them to experiment with their career, with their social environment, with your mind and even with your body.
Whether androidization will become a truly mass trend will, of course, only time will tell, but there are enough reasons to believe that rather this trend, like many other fashion trends, will obey the law of normal distribution.
What prevents domination: for ten to twenty years, that is, a nanosecond by the standards of the Universe, voluntary android people who have appeared can perform on the social stage, show their merits, fully reveal their shortcomings and, like a hippie of the 70s of the twentieth century, become overcooked intellectual knowledge of society. The idea of ​​implanting a super-powered chip for every reasonable person implies the idea that this chip can be turned off or blown up right in the head.
Does anyone remember how wildly popular the crusaders were once in Europe?
Scenario 4. Society of robots
Finally, the already-mentioned film The Matrix, and a number of other films before it, examines the motive of society under the dictates of robots and computers. World exchanges are already controlled by robot programs, time is calculated by a computer, drones and anthropomorphic robots are used in the army, not to mention the automation of the production of goods.
If humanity once loses its mind, then losing control of life, giving it to artificial intelligence, will be a real alternative. And then the technological path of development and the natural self-destruction of civilization can also be real.
The situation now: the well-known company Boston Dynamics recently presented its “Atlas”, a humanoid robot, to the public.
What prevents domination: the mind of the common part of humanity suggests that it is reasonable to have fears of the complete freedom of artificial intelligence.
Scenario 5. Flexible, thought-driven portable devices
So, imagine. In one city, we are pleased to deploy your desktop in all its three-dimensional convenience and magnificence, and in another city you can look at it only through a narrow window of a mobile gadget. Imagine that machines can understand not only our gestures, but also thoughts. And yet all these functions are still in different technologies and devices.
Remember, once, quite recently, roomy music players, surfing devices on the Internet and devices for making calls were sold in the form of three different types of devices?
The development of information technology clearly indicates that sooner or later the main computer device will be a compact mobile device capable of presenting the data in a three-dimensional way by the owner in the air, on its screen surface or on any flat surface around. And this device will be controlled by touch, gestures and thoughts.
A future new, outstanding IT company that will again change user experience will produce supercompact mobile computing projects with touch, gestures and thoughts.
What will the sales technology look like in the computer infrastructure of the future?
If the development of computer technology avoids the deadlock of androidization, copes with the risk of losing control over robots and realizes that mobile two-dimensional limits, if portable devices appear that can flexibly display data in 2D and 3D, new horizons will open up for sales technologies.
Here are five of the possible trends that we believe will soon become a reality.
1. Marketing sites will use three-dimensional virtual assistants with artificial intelligence that will help you navigate the site and answer questions. Some companies will take to create their well-known models, and some - their employees. To increase the depth of views and increase the conversion of the site, these three-dimensional virtual assistants will be widely used, actively and sensibly advising visitors.
2. Sites will receive a new function "show in the air" (show on air) - a button to switch the display from two-dimensional on the screen to three-dimensional in the air or in your stereo glasses.
3. A new file format for 3D brochures displayed in the air or in stereo glasses will appear.
4. When presenting products, three-dimensional animation and “password effects” will be widely used with the ability to “twist” the thing in front of you and, if necessary, disassemble it into details.
5. For a short time can become popular services to work with abandoned baskets, providing calls to visitors with an abandoned basket on behalf of a three-dimensional virtual assistant. For a while it will give a wow-effect, but will quickly cause a negative, because the robot can never reproduce the warmth of human communication. The emergence of stable negative connotations in the expression “virtual assistant” and negative expressions like 'vAss' is not excluded.
Man picks
Good news. Our future will be chosen by us. It is each person who will vote for one or another path of development with his choice.
At this moment it is especially important that everyone remembers what it means to be human.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/298902/
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