Hard scenario of import substitution of equipment can lead to a 27% increase in prices for communication services
Analysts at the Center for Scientific Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics thought about the consequences of replacing imported communication equipment with Russian analogues.
They estimated the total cost of domestic equipment for transport networks and for core-level switches. It turned out that it is more expensive than import by 80% and 30%, respectively.
Russian equipment can become competitive if the cost of owning imported “iron” increases by 20–23%, according to one of the authors of the study, Dmitry Kozhevnikov. For example, due to the introduction of import duties. But foreign vendors will bear the costs of the telecom operator, which immediately affects the subscribers.
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Researchers identify several import substitution scenarios for equipment:
1. If the state makes the use of domestic equipment one of the license requirements and introduces protectionist customs barriers against the finished equipment, at the same time removing duties on components, domestic equipment can take up to 65% of the market, Kozhevnikov believes. And the cost of communication services will then increase by 27%.
According to Kozhevnikov, in 2014 the share of Russian manufacturers in the domestic market of communication equipment did not exceed 12%. Moreover, it fell by 15% yoy to $ 3.5 billion. According to him, in 2015 the market continued to decline in dollar terms.
2. Kozhevnikov considers the most likely soft scenario: the state or operators invest in domestic producers, and those - create a joint venture with Asian companies that have their own sales market. In addition, the state will also have to support exports (for example, to the BRICS countries). This scenario also provides for protectionist customs measures, but much softer. With this development, domestic products will occupy 42% of the market, and communications will rise in price by 4%, Kozhevnikov calculated.
3. This is the scenario that the authors of the study call innovative. Recently, the functionality of communication equipment is less and less dependent on hardware, and Russian developers have traditionally been strong in writing software. With the investment support of the state, in five years they could even claim to the world market.
Russian equipment is comparable to imported at the cost of purchase and cheaper at the cost of ownership, Konstantin Marchenko, the deputy director of the T8 company, does not agree with the researchers.
The technical characteristics of Russian and imported equipment are comparable, and domestic manufacturers will be able to offer lower prices if the state improves their financial conditions by guaranteeing purchases and giving credit to low rates, he told Vedomosti.
Now, domestic manufacturers are not able to fully meet the needs of operators in the construction of networks, MTS representative Dmitry Solodovnikov told Vedomosti.
There are some strong manufacturers of equipment and software in Russia, but in most cases they also buy foreign materials and components for currency, which affects ruble prices, Yulia Dorokhina, a representative of MegaFon , said in an interview with the newspaper.
At the end of 2015, the share of Russian and localized goods (equipment for spectral compaction and equipment for IP / MPLS access level networks) among Rostelecom's purchases will approach 30%.
They estimated the total cost of domestic equipment for transport networks and for core-level switches. It turned out that it is more expensive than import by 80% and 30%, respectively.
Russian equipment can become competitive if the cost of owning imported “iron” increases by 20–23%, according to one of the authors of the study, Dmitry Kozhevnikov. For example, due to the introduction of import duties. But foreign vendors will bear the costs of the telecom operator, which immediately affects the subscribers.
')
Researchers identify several import substitution scenarios for equipment:
1. If the state makes the use of domestic equipment one of the license requirements and introduces protectionist customs barriers against the finished equipment, at the same time removing duties on components, domestic equipment can take up to 65% of the market, Kozhevnikov believes. And the cost of communication services will then increase by 27%.
According to Kozhevnikov, in 2014 the share of Russian manufacturers in the domestic market of communication equipment did not exceed 12%. Moreover, it fell by 15% yoy to $ 3.5 billion. According to him, in 2015 the market continued to decline in dollar terms.
2. Kozhevnikov considers the most likely soft scenario: the state or operators invest in domestic producers, and those - create a joint venture with Asian companies that have their own sales market. In addition, the state will also have to support exports (for example, to the BRICS countries). This scenario also provides for protectionist customs measures, but much softer. With this development, domestic products will occupy 42% of the market, and communications will rise in price by 4%, Kozhevnikov calculated.
3. This is the scenario that the authors of the study call innovative. Recently, the functionality of communication equipment is less and less dependent on hardware, and Russian developers have traditionally been strong in writing software. With the investment support of the state, in five years they could even claim to the world market.
Russian equipment is comparable to imported at the cost of purchase and cheaper at the cost of ownership, Konstantin Marchenko, the deputy director of the T8 company, does not agree with the researchers.
The technical characteristics of Russian and imported equipment are comparable, and domestic manufacturers will be able to offer lower prices if the state improves their financial conditions by guaranteeing purchases and giving credit to low rates, he told Vedomosti.
Now, domestic manufacturers are not able to fully meet the needs of operators in the construction of networks, MTS representative Dmitry Solodovnikov told Vedomosti.
There are some strong manufacturers of equipment and software in Russia, but in most cases they also buy foreign materials and components for currency, which affects ruble prices, Yulia Dorokhina, a representative of MegaFon , said in an interview with the newspaper.
At the end of 2015, the share of Russian and localized goods (equipment for spectral compaction and equipment for IP / MPLS access level networks) among Rostelecom's purchases will approach 30%.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/298312/
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