2016 will be the year of hangover in Silicon Valley
We will publish for you a translation of a note about the predictions for next year, Bernard Moon, co-founder and general partner of SparkLabs Global Ventures - the global seed fund and co-founder of SparkLabs - accelerator in Seoul (Korea).
2016 will be an unusual year for the tech community. It will be so different from 2015 that, like the heroes of “The Bachelor Party” - Alan, Phil and Stu - we will look around and ask what the hell happened. What seemed like a beautiful princess in 2015 will be a frog crushed on asphalt in 2016 reality.
')
I suppose most analysts predict a recession, but no one can accurately estimate its scale. Michael Berry, the protagonist of the “Fall game”, who predicted the last major crisis, believes that it is worth preparing for the next serious recession in the financial world, and personally I am inclined to share his opinion.
First, let's look at my predictions for the past year :
"The influx of security startups." Rating: 5+
Without listing specific companies, I note that, according to CB Insights and Bain Capital Ventures, by September 2015 more than $ 2.3 billion had been invested in security startups. I think, in general, over the year, the amount exceeded 2.5 billion, and there was some start-up fever in the area. I got to the point.
"Reducing the cost of Uber." Rating: 3
I do not set myself a deuce so far, since the Uber estimate is not yet complete, but its value at the moment is 62 billion, and the figure is still growing, so in any case I was wrong.
"The growing popularity of machine learning." Rating: 5.
Artificial intelligence and machine learning entered the mass market in 2015, so I rely five. I even wanted to put myself 5 with a plus, but most of the important news came down only at the very end of 2015. Toyota announced its intention to invest 1 billion in the development of artificial intelligence; OpenAI launched - a $ 1 billion non-profit project provided by Elon Mask, Peter Thiel, Sam Altman and other investors.
Even in our global seed investment fund, there were several startups involved in artificial intelligence / machine learning who tried to intervene in the insurance, drug development, manufacturing, and other sectors. We were showered with a lot of projects and applications in attempts to get funds for applying technology in very many directions, and I even had a double vision, since most of the AI ​​algorithms from the coolest teams were almost identical, with the only difference that the data sources differ user interface and app perception.
"Xiaomi will be ranked third among the largest mobile phone manufacturers in the world." Rating: 3
Xiaomi was stuck in 4th place, with a market share of 5.6% according to IDC, that is, I too boldly predicted third place for them in 2015. In justification, I will say that they took up other product lines, such as air filters, fitness bracelets, which affected the phone manufacturing sector.
Now let's move on to my 9th annual list of predictions for next year.
This is what awaits us in 2016:
1. At least 10 more “unicorns” will die in 2016
This is all predicted, but I predict a specific figure. At least 10 “unicorns” will sink into oblivion in 2015. Given the fact that there are now 144 “unicorns” according to CB Insights , you can blame me for not being bold enough in forecasts. I really would like to say 20. But I have long been not a daring entrepreneur, and limit myself to 10.
I believe that some remakes from the 90s, like Kozmo and other delivery startups, cannot always work with minimal or even negative profit. Even if Google Express and Amazon Fresh are losing money on delivery, it’s hard to imagine how such startups can avoid ruin.
As Stew would say from the “Bachelor Party”, these remakes survive now thanks to the remnants of “pizza on the couch.”
Some user applications are still in search of a stable business model, although they will have to use it closer to death in 2016. This year will not be prosperous for the world of startups, but will only be an inevitable stage in the life cycle of organizations.
2. Blockchain technology will enter the mass market
Pundits sometimes overestimate the significance of this prediction, but I am one of those who believe in the long life of the blockchain as a universal tool for maintaining financial accounting more than a bitcoin currency. 2016 will be a breakthrough year for the blockchain technology, as it begins to move away from bitcoin and turns to other aspects of the business and financial market where it is necessary to track the movement of funds between organizations.
We have already observed new ways to use the blockchain technology, but I think we should take a closer look at the Open Ledger Project. The project brought together such large corporations as IBM, the London Stock Exchange, JP Morgan, State Street, Cisco, Wells Fargo, Intel, and others. The project is run by the non-profit Linux Foundation, which seeks to develop optimal technology for large corporations around the world.
3. The Internet of Things will also be slowly introduced into homes.
I believe in the Internet of Things, as well as our entire team at SparkLabs Global, but I believe that 2016 will not be too successful for developing the Internet of Things for home use, for security systems, energy management systems, and for other solutions. If a very reliable service component does not appear, the convenience of technology will not yet outweigh the problems of security and other concerns. 2016 startups involved in the application of the Internet of Things in homes, will spend on marketing campaigns and training.
I would also like to note that, as the startups involved in this technology have already understood, the struggle for a place on the shelves of the largest retail trading companies is not an easy task. The product must be really good to get to Home Depot, Target, Ace Hardware and other centers.
3. Machine learning will still be in the shadows
Do not take me for a schizophrenic, given that I predicted a breakthrough for machine learning in 2015, but I believe that technology needs a little more to reach, and in 2017 it will return to the game, like Mr. Chau in “Bachelor Party”. For example, we have already seen a lot of start-ups engaged in machine learning within the industrial Internet of things, although the areas of industry for which they are aiming are either not yet ready, or the business model is not yet mature enough to generate significant income.
5. Google will buy Snapchat
I have to give a completely insane prediction, so as not to sound like a Grinch, so I predict that Google will buy Snapchat to keep up with the times. Google still does not understand that behind unmanned vehicles and SocailCar platforms is the future, but Google advertisers are already threatened by the Facebook empire in the form of Messanger, Instagram and WhatsApp applications. Google needs fresh blood to bypass Facebook’s growing influence on the next generation of users.
What are your predictions for 2016?
Bernard Moon is the co-founder and general partner of SparkLabs Global Ventures - the global seed fund and the co-founder of SparkLabs - an accelerator in Seoul (Korea). Follow him on Twitter.
2016 will be an unusual year for the tech community. It will be so different from 2015 that, like the heroes of “The Bachelor Party” - Alan, Phil and Stu - we will look around and ask what the hell happened. What seemed like a beautiful princess in 2015 will be a frog crushed on asphalt in 2016 reality.
')
I suppose most analysts predict a recession, but no one can accurately estimate its scale. Michael Berry, the protagonist of the “Fall game”, who predicted the last major crisis, believes that it is worth preparing for the next serious recession in the financial world, and personally I am inclined to share his opinion.
First, let's look at my predictions for the past year :
"The influx of security startups." Rating: 5+
Without listing specific companies, I note that, according to CB Insights and Bain Capital Ventures, by September 2015 more than $ 2.3 billion had been invested in security startups. I think, in general, over the year, the amount exceeded 2.5 billion, and there was some start-up fever in the area. I got to the point.
"Reducing the cost of Uber." Rating: 3
I do not set myself a deuce so far, since the Uber estimate is not yet complete, but its value at the moment is 62 billion, and the figure is still growing, so in any case I was wrong.
"The growing popularity of machine learning." Rating: 5.
Artificial intelligence and machine learning entered the mass market in 2015, so I rely five. I even wanted to put myself 5 with a plus, but most of the important news came down only at the very end of 2015. Toyota announced its intention to invest 1 billion in the development of artificial intelligence; OpenAI launched - a $ 1 billion non-profit project provided by Elon Mask, Peter Thiel, Sam Altman and other investors.
Even in our global seed investment fund, there were several startups involved in artificial intelligence / machine learning who tried to intervene in the insurance, drug development, manufacturing, and other sectors. We were showered with a lot of projects and applications in attempts to get funds for applying technology in very many directions, and I even had a double vision, since most of the AI ​​algorithms from the coolest teams were almost identical, with the only difference that the data sources differ user interface and app perception.
"Xiaomi will be ranked third among the largest mobile phone manufacturers in the world." Rating: 3
Xiaomi was stuck in 4th place, with a market share of 5.6% according to IDC, that is, I too boldly predicted third place for them in 2015. In justification, I will say that they took up other product lines, such as air filters, fitness bracelets, which affected the phone manufacturing sector.
Now let's move on to my 9th annual list of predictions for next year.
This is what awaits us in 2016:
1. At least 10 more “unicorns” will die in 2016
This is all predicted, but I predict a specific figure. At least 10 “unicorns” will sink into oblivion in 2015. Given the fact that there are now 144 “unicorns” according to CB Insights , you can blame me for not being bold enough in forecasts. I really would like to say 20. But I have long been not a daring entrepreneur, and limit myself to 10.
I believe that some remakes from the 90s, like Kozmo and other delivery startups, cannot always work with minimal or even negative profit. Even if Google Express and Amazon Fresh are losing money on delivery, it’s hard to imagine how such startups can avoid ruin.
As Stew would say from the “Bachelor Party”, these remakes survive now thanks to the remnants of “pizza on the couch.”
Some user applications are still in search of a stable business model, although they will have to use it closer to death in 2016. This year will not be prosperous for the world of startups, but will only be an inevitable stage in the life cycle of organizations.
2. Blockchain technology will enter the mass market
Pundits sometimes overestimate the significance of this prediction, but I am one of those who believe in the long life of the blockchain as a universal tool for maintaining financial accounting more than a bitcoin currency. 2016 will be a breakthrough year for the blockchain technology, as it begins to move away from bitcoin and turns to other aspects of the business and financial market where it is necessary to track the movement of funds between organizations.
We have already observed new ways to use the blockchain technology, but I think we should take a closer look at the Open Ledger Project. The project brought together such large corporations as IBM, the London Stock Exchange, JP Morgan, State Street, Cisco, Wells Fargo, Intel, and others. The project is run by the non-profit Linux Foundation, which seeks to develop optimal technology for large corporations around the world.
3. The Internet of Things will also be slowly introduced into homes.
I believe in the Internet of Things, as well as our entire team at SparkLabs Global, but I believe that 2016 will not be too successful for developing the Internet of Things for home use, for security systems, energy management systems, and for other solutions. If a very reliable service component does not appear, the convenience of technology will not yet outweigh the problems of security and other concerns. 2016 startups involved in the application of the Internet of Things in homes, will spend on marketing campaigns and training.
I would also like to note that, as the startups involved in this technology have already understood, the struggle for a place on the shelves of the largest retail trading companies is not an easy task. The product must be really good to get to Home Depot, Target, Ace Hardware and other centers.
3. Machine learning will still be in the shadows
Do not take me for a schizophrenic, given that I predicted a breakthrough for machine learning in 2015, but I believe that technology needs a little more to reach, and in 2017 it will return to the game, like Mr. Chau in “Bachelor Party”. For example, we have already seen a lot of start-ups engaged in machine learning within the industrial Internet of things, although the areas of industry for which they are aiming are either not yet ready, or the business model is not yet mature enough to generate significant income.
5. Google will buy Snapchat
I have to give a completely insane prediction, so as not to sound like a Grinch, so I predict that Google will buy Snapchat to keep up with the times. Google still does not understand that behind unmanned vehicles and SocailCar platforms is the future, but Google advertisers are already threatened by the Facebook empire in the form of Messanger, Instagram and WhatsApp applications. Google needs fresh blood to bypass Facebook’s growing influence on the next generation of users.
What are your predictions for 2016?
Bernard Moon is the co-founder and general partner of SparkLabs Global Ventures - the global seed fund and the co-founder of SparkLabs - an accelerator in Seoul (Korea). Follow him on Twitter.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/298126/
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