Profession "programmer" in 5 years

A strange thing - wrote for managers "change the methods of recruitment and personnel management is not too late," and the programmers with comments, "yes!" Exactly!". I decided to write a post on megamind specifically for programmers :)

And so, where are we going in the market for near-IT employees in the next two years, I described earlier in my Facebook post. I repeat theses arguments from there:

• The world is already feeling personnel hunger in the so-called “new professions” - professions that have emerged or become relevant in the last decade, mainly related to IT, but not only. A common place in these professions is that the industry standards for them are either just established or are being established. Because of this, there is no place to study for those who want to get a professional education: there are few learning organizations or they teach the wrong thing.
  ')
  
• In Russia, there is a demographic hole factor: now there are as few as 15-20 years old people. This means that new recruits have nowhere to take. They have simply not grown.
  
  
• Kosta on this background is seriously growing, the competition of Russian organizations for people goes not only among themselves, but also with foreign companies.
  
  
• The obvious way for an extensive business is to go to those cities where there are still “undeveloped” personnel: open offices there, take people away.
  
  
• In the perspective of two years, "programmers" will have a good full life.

But no one wondered what would happen next, well, after 5 years, for example. What can happen in five years with the labor market? Let's try to imagine.

In order not to leave the market under the conditions of the most severe personnel shortage, companies are forced to invent working methods that all these “programmers” do not require. Hand on heart, a significant part of the systems does not require such strong professionals. Especially if you work with ready-made cloud systems.

Undoubtedly, to service the cloud will require some number of highly qualified personnel, but an order of magnitude smaller than what is needed now, for example, to serve all the working online stores.

The world of business is simply profitable to move towards the hiring of cloud services configurators, whose qualification is obtained in three-month courses by simply learning all the necessary schemes for the work. And if you need something more complicated, then contact your provider.

Sounds implausible? Then evaluate the level of technical knowledge required to create an online store, for example, on the InSales platform.

Clouds are not the only way to modernize a business under a new personnel paradigm. A business will not only be forced to get rid of deficient positions (it will be impossible to close them anyway), but also to attract unused personnel reserves to the wound.

Personnel hunger removes many taboos. Now, let's recognize the situation on the market honestly, many companies in Russia avoid hiring specialists of more than 40 years old. Companies wrinkle a nose at the sight of a candidate who found the Soviet Union at a conscious age. They include an internal censor called "we have a company of young professionals."

Under the conditions of personnel shortage, it’s not fat, you have to hire anyone who can do the work. And the job of a configurator is not only that dust-free and you can do it until the end of your working age (years up to 70 is easy), requires only minimal courses, and even against the background of age discounting, it becomes just profitable for companies to hire 55-year-old MailChimp or promotion specialists in social networks.

It seems to you that these people will not be able to learn how to work? Remember, many of them have already mastered a computer at least once at a conscious age. These are not disabled people, but unrealized personnel reserve.

What happens to the profession of the same programmer? It's simple: with the departure of personnel shortages, it is rapidly depreciating. And this shift will occur very, very quickly, literally over the next 5-7 years. You wake up in the morning dismissed and can not find work for the same money that you had before. And for half the size — you can't either. Just because large companies that create technological infrastructure (including clouds) will strive to recruit vacant places with young people 5-10 years younger, and the signor places have long been occupied.