What money does the economy need
Money of the future (reasoning on practical futurology).
As you know, there is nothing more practical than a good theory. And when the theory takes possession of the masses, it forms the future. But until then - any theory - this is only the basis for predictions.
We offer (and justify) a forecast of the future of money or, if you wish, a description of the principles for constructing possible future monetary systems:
- There will be a lot of money. Not in the sense that many banks and states will print them (such a scenario is also possible, but this is not about him). There will be many different types of money at the same time. And at first glance, some of them (but only at first glance) are not money at all, but perform the functions of money. And some types of this new money will be enough, i.e. there will not be a shortage of money in the economy (but certainly not necessarily in your personal pocket).
Justification and details.
The main reason for the emergence of money was and continues to be the social division of labor and the resulting division of production and consumption (division by subjects, and / or at the place of action, and / or by time).
For further analysis, you must first decide what the actual money is. The most appropriate definition of money is the following: money is the main functions that they perform in the economy. There are two main functions that are necessary and sufficient to clarify the concept of money:
- is a measure of value;
- and means of payment (means of payment and circulation).
Of course, the money to which we are all accustomed, there are other functions:
- means of accumulation;
- a means of economic coercion for the state and the source of its existence;
- world money (it is clear that not all money has such a function).
However, since these other functions can in principle be performed by some other tools, it is therefore advisable to leave only two of their main functions in the definition of money — a measure of cost and a means of calculation, because the fact that it does not unambiguously perform these functions is not money. Moreover, everything that these two first functions systematically perform in society and economics (measure of value and means of payment) should be considered money (as if “it” is not called in practice).
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Of the entire set of "money" in the analysis, it is advisable to allocate money of the state - this is the official money of this or that state. They differ from all other money only in one quality - the state considers them obligatory to receive in all settlements and payments. And in order to further strengthen and justify this requirement - the obligation to receive in all payments - the state often declares (both at the legislative level and in propaganda) all other types of money (unless of course they are not official money of other states) as money substitutes. But this is nothing more than a “nickname” that has nothing to do with the essence of money. Those. for the economy, all money is money. And for the state - not all.
The economy knows various types of money. Moreover, in different periods of time and in different countries, one or another of them dominated. It:
- commodity money (remember, the bride costs 18 sheep);
- precious metals;
- paper money, fully secured with precious metals (or in general, some other values);
- fiat (fiat) money or money for trust (in particular, unsecured money, now being issued by any state or the central banks of the states);
- credit money “issued” by commercial banks when issuing loans (or issued by mutual credit societies operating on the basis of additional (local) currencies);
- electronic money;
- money - as the equivalent of working time spent on the production of a product or service (time-money system).
We make a small digression. Let us analyze the following question: does the emission of money by the state always lead to an increase in inflation? Even from the above list of different types of money already follows a negative answer to this question. Since, for example, the issuance of maternity money may be accompanied by a reduction in the supply of credit money. And the money that performs the measure of value in the financial and foreign exchange market is the basis for fictitious growth in turnover due to, among other things, various financial bubbles. But back from inflation to money.
So the first question: will there always be money?
Or can conditions be created when there will be no economic need for money? For example, in order for the economic necessity to disappear in money, the separation of the functions of production and consumption suffices to disappear. And oddly enough - we are really moving towards this. In a certain theoretical limit, to which modern economy is striving for in one of the trends, everything will be done right at the place of consumption (simplified example: 3D printers will print everything you need on the spot). However, in practice, a full coincidence of production and consumption throughout the economy should not occur. After all, in order for someone in some future 3D printer (or a replicator of fantastic works) to produce something, this subject must acquire (receive) this printer / replicator and / or must acquire (receive) information on how to produce what he required.
Question two: what other (besides the coincidence of production and consumption) significant metamorphosis can occur with the economy, which will in turn determine what money will be in the future.
Now you can point to the following points of growth of new economic entities:
1. Replacing the circulation of goods with a turnover of services (example: you can buy an air conditioner and an air ventilation system, or you can buy the “always fresh air” service).
2. The development of various bonus programs for customer loyalty, which can lead to the fact that without these bonuses will not be made and can not be made any significant purchase. Those. Bonuses will be much more "traditional" money and their presence will be no less mandatory for the transaction than the availability of money.
3. The development of social networks. They seem to lie outside the economy. But the positions and ratings that are “earned” there are already beginning to influence the possibilities of obtaining quite material incomes. Those. ratings of social networks, as well as bonuses of trading systems - are beginning to become a prerequisite for the possibility of acquiring new tangible and intangible benefits.
4. There is another trend and another danger to the economy and society. The active development of remote work can lead to a decrease in motivation to work. Not everyone with further expansion of the tendency to the organization of remote work will be sufficiently productive to work at home. This is perhaps a hypothetical danger, but it is. And the fact that it is indirectly confirmed, for example, is the following - if you look at the worlds of future universal abundance described by some science fiction writers, for example, in the Strugatskys, the thought stubbornly crawls between the lines - in these worlds (where everyone needs) it’s scary. Out of boredom, some of the main characters rush into space, while other characters die of boredom. Now people are working (not all, but many) for money. If their deficit disappears - what will be the incentive to work?
The way out of this situation can be the transformation of the economy into a game. A reasonable man turns into a man playing. And he no longer earns money, but points and positions in the "game".
5. Another striking trend in modern life is the expansion of resource sharing. Example: rental and micro rolling system. The development of this trend leads to the unification of people into certain communities. And so in the future it will not be enough money to access resources, it will be necessary to be a member of all the necessary resource communities.
The third question from the field of the future of money: what significant changes can occur in the technology of their emission.
Today, at the new technological level, many money emission centers are emerging. This is primarily a release in addition to some central currency of local currencies (the most interesting of which are local money (coupons, coupons, etc.) with a demurrage. These are also distributed and fully decentralized emission systems of some non-cash units of value and means of settlement (the most well-known example is Bitcoins), based in particular on the technology of distributed storage of transactions - “block-chasing.” Finally, the emission functions of new money can be completely transferred ... well, for example, to system operators ties (and in this direction the corresponding trend of the modern economy also goes.) Or perhaps new values ​​will arise, which at a new level will bring us back to commodity money (a new value of gold type will be opened and limitedly accessible, but not gold at all, for example some unknown yet valuable mineral, substance or substance, elixir of life extension, etc.).
Question four: will the central banks continue to play and what role will they play in the future?
The answer - apparently yes, will remain. As they still have the lowest risk of default, and, as a rule, other economic entities benefit from keeping certain reserves there (now expressed in ordinary currency, and in the future some other reserves are possible). However, if new types of reserves that provide liquidity, new types of money will not be expressed in currency values, then it is more logical to call new central banks “central warehouses”, central depositories, “I don’t know what to call” central ones.
All this is possible and interesting, you will say, but what can be practically done on the basis of the above analysis in order to either bring this future closer or be as ready as possible for it. And here I would like to attract what is called “collective intelligence”. From myself I can make the following recommendations:
1. When planning your transactions and your budget, if possible, distinguish between the various functions of money. And do not forget that the function of accumulation is not the main and not the only function of money. And besides the “traditional” forms of accumulation (bank deposits, stocks, bonds and other securities, real estate) there may be other ways of accumulation. The main thing is to assume that accumulation is the preservation (taking into account inflation and other negative factors), and not multiplication.
2. I think it is advisable in serious and long-term transactions to use to determine the price of the transaction other opportunities other than national or foreign currency. Leaving for money only the function of calculations.
3. The recommendation is purely for the IT community - the development of blockchasing technology, which lies in particular (but in particular) at the heart of the emission of bitcoins - a very promising thing with many applications in data storage technology and with direct access to the economy.
4. If you rise to the level of the state, then the most promising idea here may be a proposal to introduce new types of “money” used exclusively for settlements and emitted by the state (not the central bank, but the government). And if they satisfy the following conditions:
a. They cannot pay for securities and derivative financial instruments.
b. They can not buy foreign currency.
c. Cannot be used to repay loans, loans and interest payments (penalties and other things) on loans and borrowings.
d. You can not lend at interest.
e. should not be used for accumulation (for this, they must be with a demurrage - the cost of possession).
It will be an excellent, non-inflationary and anti-corruption, means to finance public investment (provided that the money will be returned to the state in paying taxes).
As you know, there is nothing more practical than a good theory. And when the theory takes possession of the masses, it forms the future. But until then - any theory - this is only the basis for predictions.
We offer (and justify) a forecast of the future of money or, if you wish, a description of the principles for constructing possible future monetary systems:
- There will be a lot of money. Not in the sense that many banks and states will print them (such a scenario is also possible, but this is not about him). There will be many different types of money at the same time. And at first glance, some of them (but only at first glance) are not money at all, but perform the functions of money. And some types of this new money will be enough, i.e. there will not be a shortage of money in the economy (but certainly not necessarily in your personal pocket).
Justification and details.
The main reason for the emergence of money was and continues to be the social division of labor and the resulting division of production and consumption (division by subjects, and / or at the place of action, and / or by time).
For further analysis, you must first decide what the actual money is. The most appropriate definition of money is the following: money is the main functions that they perform in the economy. There are two main functions that are necessary and sufficient to clarify the concept of money:
- is a measure of value;
- and means of payment (means of payment and circulation).
Of course, the money to which we are all accustomed, there are other functions:
- means of accumulation;
- a means of economic coercion for the state and the source of its existence;
- world money (it is clear that not all money has such a function).
However, since these other functions can in principle be performed by some other tools, it is therefore advisable to leave only two of their main functions in the definition of money — a measure of cost and a means of calculation, because the fact that it does not unambiguously perform these functions is not money. Moreover, everything that these two first functions systematically perform in society and economics (measure of value and means of payment) should be considered money (as if “it” is not called in practice).
')
Of the entire set of "money" in the analysis, it is advisable to allocate money of the state - this is the official money of this or that state. They differ from all other money only in one quality - the state considers them obligatory to receive in all settlements and payments. And in order to further strengthen and justify this requirement - the obligation to receive in all payments - the state often declares (both at the legislative level and in propaganda) all other types of money (unless of course they are not official money of other states) as money substitutes. But this is nothing more than a “nickname” that has nothing to do with the essence of money. Those. for the economy, all money is money. And for the state - not all.
The economy knows various types of money. Moreover, in different periods of time and in different countries, one or another of them dominated. It:
- commodity money (remember, the bride costs 18 sheep);
- precious metals;
- paper money, fully secured with precious metals (or in general, some other values);
- fiat (fiat) money or money for trust (in particular, unsecured money, now being issued by any state or the central banks of the states);
- credit money “issued” by commercial banks when issuing loans (or issued by mutual credit societies operating on the basis of additional (local) currencies);
- electronic money;
- money - as the equivalent of working time spent on the production of a product or service (time-money system).
We make a small digression. Let us analyze the following question: does the emission of money by the state always lead to an increase in inflation? Even from the above list of different types of money already follows a negative answer to this question. Since, for example, the issuance of maternity money may be accompanied by a reduction in the supply of credit money. And the money that performs the measure of value in the financial and foreign exchange market is the basis for fictitious growth in turnover due to, among other things, various financial bubbles. But back from inflation to money.
So the first question: will there always be money?
Or can conditions be created when there will be no economic need for money? For example, in order for the economic necessity to disappear in money, the separation of the functions of production and consumption suffices to disappear. And oddly enough - we are really moving towards this. In a certain theoretical limit, to which modern economy is striving for in one of the trends, everything will be done right at the place of consumption (simplified example: 3D printers will print everything you need on the spot). However, in practice, a full coincidence of production and consumption throughout the economy should not occur. After all, in order for someone in some future 3D printer (or a replicator of fantastic works) to produce something, this subject must acquire (receive) this printer / replicator and / or must acquire (receive) information on how to produce what he required.
Question two: what other (besides the coincidence of production and consumption) significant metamorphosis can occur with the economy, which will in turn determine what money will be in the future.
Now you can point to the following points of growth of new economic entities:
1. Replacing the circulation of goods with a turnover of services (example: you can buy an air conditioner and an air ventilation system, or you can buy the “always fresh air” service).
2. The development of various bonus programs for customer loyalty, which can lead to the fact that without these bonuses will not be made and can not be made any significant purchase. Those. Bonuses will be much more "traditional" money and their presence will be no less mandatory for the transaction than the availability of money.
3. The development of social networks. They seem to lie outside the economy. But the positions and ratings that are “earned” there are already beginning to influence the possibilities of obtaining quite material incomes. Those. ratings of social networks, as well as bonuses of trading systems - are beginning to become a prerequisite for the possibility of acquiring new tangible and intangible benefits.
4. There is another trend and another danger to the economy and society. The active development of remote work can lead to a decrease in motivation to work. Not everyone with further expansion of the tendency to the organization of remote work will be sufficiently productive to work at home. This is perhaps a hypothetical danger, but it is. And the fact that it is indirectly confirmed, for example, is the following - if you look at the worlds of future universal abundance described by some science fiction writers, for example, in the Strugatskys, the thought stubbornly crawls between the lines - in these worlds (where everyone needs) it’s scary. Out of boredom, some of the main characters rush into space, while other characters die of boredom. Now people are working (not all, but many) for money. If their deficit disappears - what will be the incentive to work?
The way out of this situation can be the transformation of the economy into a game. A reasonable man turns into a man playing. And he no longer earns money, but points and positions in the "game".
5. Another striking trend in modern life is the expansion of resource sharing. Example: rental and micro rolling system. The development of this trend leads to the unification of people into certain communities. And so in the future it will not be enough money to access resources, it will be necessary to be a member of all the necessary resource communities.
The third question from the field of the future of money: what significant changes can occur in the technology of their emission.
Today, at the new technological level, many money emission centers are emerging. This is primarily a release in addition to some central currency of local currencies (the most interesting of which are local money (coupons, coupons, etc.) with a demurrage. These are also distributed and fully decentralized emission systems of some non-cash units of value and means of settlement (the most well-known example is Bitcoins), based in particular on the technology of distributed storage of transactions - “block-chasing.” Finally, the emission functions of new money can be completely transferred ... well, for example, to system operators ties (and in this direction the corresponding trend of the modern economy also goes.) Or perhaps new values ​​will arise, which at a new level will bring us back to commodity money (a new value of gold type will be opened and limitedly accessible, but not gold at all, for example some unknown yet valuable mineral, substance or substance, elixir of life extension, etc.).
Question four: will the central banks continue to play and what role will they play in the future?
The answer - apparently yes, will remain. As they still have the lowest risk of default, and, as a rule, other economic entities benefit from keeping certain reserves there (now expressed in ordinary currency, and in the future some other reserves are possible). However, if new types of reserves that provide liquidity, new types of money will not be expressed in currency values, then it is more logical to call new central banks “central warehouses”, central depositories, “I don’t know what to call” central ones.
All this is possible and interesting, you will say, but what can be practically done on the basis of the above analysis in order to either bring this future closer or be as ready as possible for it. And here I would like to attract what is called “collective intelligence”. From myself I can make the following recommendations:
1. When planning your transactions and your budget, if possible, distinguish between the various functions of money. And do not forget that the function of accumulation is not the main and not the only function of money. And besides the “traditional” forms of accumulation (bank deposits, stocks, bonds and other securities, real estate) there may be other ways of accumulation. The main thing is to assume that accumulation is the preservation (taking into account inflation and other negative factors), and not multiplication.
2. I think it is advisable in serious and long-term transactions to use to determine the price of the transaction other opportunities other than national or foreign currency. Leaving for money only the function of calculations.
3. The recommendation is purely for the IT community - the development of blockchasing technology, which lies in particular (but in particular) at the heart of the emission of bitcoins - a very promising thing with many applications in data storage technology and with direct access to the economy.
4. If you rise to the level of the state, then the most promising idea here may be a proposal to introduce new types of “money” used exclusively for settlements and emitted by the state (not the central bank, but the government). And if they satisfy the following conditions:
a. They cannot pay for securities and derivative financial instruments.
b. They can not buy foreign currency.
c. Cannot be used to repay loans, loans and interest payments (penalties and other things) on loans and borrowings.
d. You can not lend at interest.
e. should not be used for accumulation (for this, they must be with a demurrage - the cost of possession).
It will be an excellent, non-inflationary and anti-corruption, means to finance public investment (provided that the money will be returned to the state in paying taxes).
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/296800/
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