Forecast for the future

wearable and implantable medical devices with sensors will become ubiquitous ... Medical nanobots will be widely used for precise endoscopic operations and drug delivery, growing organs using 3D printers. Cyberorgans will be produced and implanted.

The state will regulate legislation on data protection, control systems that prevent data hacking, methods of encryption, specialized systems of protection and protection against targeted attacks on data and devices.

Again, these are not phrases from a cyberpunk science fiction novel, and especially fanfic on Orwell, but “a forecast of the future in 10-20 years”, which “for a clearer understanding of the program and its place in Russia's long-term development strategy” "More than 1000 experts of the Internet community and Internet business") "in areas that are reflected in the proposals for" "Proposals for the formation of a long-term program for the development of the Russian part of the information and communication network" Internet "and related sectors of economy and September 29, 2015 "developed by the Institute for Internet Development.

So, what awaits us in the very near future?

Medicine and health. Remote medicine will become the main focus of medical care: wearable and implantable medical devices with sensors, constant monitoring of medical parameters of patients through the network, remote diagnostics and counseling, surgical robots - remotely controlled and working automatically using embedded algorithms. Medical nanorobots will be widely used for precise endoscopic operations and drug delivery, organ growth using 3D printers. Cyberorgans will be produced and implanted.
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Some food like sweets and snacks will also be printed on printers. Biological organs, teeth, bones will also be printed on the printer and implanted by robotic surgeons.

It's funny that all such predictions are susceptible to pods of the moment. Have the first remote operations appeared? We write that everyone will enjoy! And it does not matter that now such operations are carried out in specialized centers, and for operations in the field it is necessary to create a place with a sterile atmosphere for each operation, to deliver a team of anesthesiologists (for some reason they do not talk about remote anesthesia), orderlies to prepare the patient for surgery . Finally, the diesel-generator robot itself must also be delivered to ensure continuity of work. Naturally - all this is solved, but for some reason in the forecasts of development underwater roughness shyly fall.

The profession of a robotics engineer and a software engineer will appear in most universities and will be one of the most sought-after in the country. Higher education institutions in Russia will produce at least a million engineers a year, most of whom will be specialists in programming, systems engineering, robotics and artificial intelligence, as well as in applying IT in the national economy and business.

Is iron produced about all likelihood so in China? - the release of specialists in the field of production is not provided.

A million engineers per year is 10 million per decade. Plus their wives and children. The whole Moscow some programmers. But there are few universities:

A network of technical schools and vocational schools will be developed, and in 2-3 years they will train programmers and ICT specialists of middle level.

Plus distance education:

Much of the training will be distant, giving the opportunity in the regions to acquire basic professional knowledge and skills from the best universities and technical schools. High quality video conferencing and telepresence technology will allow to receive full-time education regardless of the distance to the university. In the composition of all programs of ordinary universities there will be a remote component.

And what awaits us in terms of domestic software?

In 2025-2030, Russia will have its own single operating system. All government institutions, strategically important parts of the infrastructure will work on a single platform that will be developed and maintained in the Russian Federation. It will run personal computers, mobile devices and wearable chips.

In the ideal Internet future, all critical sectors of the national economy will use only domestic processors, chips, routers, operating systems, smartphones.

Development of domestic software, microchips, processors and terminals will have significant benefits and be supported by the state.

In general, nothing new, except that the OS will work in chips, but oh well - who knows. What chips will be in 10 years.

But how will the state look at the software - it's interesting

Information Security. Embedding technologies in all spheres of human life will require a different approach to data protection, a change in its concept will occur: information security will cease to be a private matter even in private structures. The state will regulate legislation on data protection, control systems that prevent data hacking, methods of encryption, specialized systems of protection and protection against targeted attacks on data and devices. Unified state centers for collecting and processing information threats and unified protection systems will be created.

There will be a national ecosystem of software, mobile applications and embedded software, state-controlled : from the payment system, certificates and personal identifiers to social networks and gaming services .

Smacks of total control

Imported devices, software and foreign services will comply with the requirements of the law for the installation of domestic software and certified information security tools.

Installing our software on foreign services. I want to look at it!

State services and government. Full availability of public services in any locality, instant authorization, instant response, answers to questions and complaints will be provided.

This place is very interesting. Especially in combination with other forecasts.

Due to the powerful development of a network of cameras in public places, as well as video-nanodayers covering all public areas , vehicles tracking means, radio tags and intelligent devices connected to the Internet in most products, large amounts of data will be constantly collected, first of all, data and Meta-data on the behavior of people , video, audio, geography and retrospective, with remote biometrics reading - temperature, pressure and blood sugar level. With the help of profile calculations in social networks and retail - data on marital status, connections, consumer preferences, purchase history, political views, financial condition, other social data .

The masses of video cameras will be installed everywhere . Virtual cameras on distributed nano-sensors will be able to give a three-dimensional picture of what is happening at any point, from different angles and in retrospect .

Public territories are not only populated areas - this is the whole country plus accessible underground spaces. Cover the entire territory of Russia with nano-sensors ... Boldly

There will be a continuous measurement of the ratings of state structures, politicians, parties in real time. Much of the election will be conducted by online voting.

Large data on citizens will be accumulated by state structures and private companies that will organize their exchange and sale. The completeness and time depth of the data about each person will be such that in the hands of the owners, for example, investigators or marketers, there will actually be a time machine that allows you to restore the complete history of actions of any citizen at any given time interval — with sound and video.

Private life will be unprecedentedly open, which will require special regulation of the use of data, the rights to oblivion, etc., of constant control over the use of data. Big data will actually be nationalized , the rules for their use will be strictly regulated.

Orwell? No Russia 2025

Full coverage of the territory of the Russian Federation with a digital TV signal will be achieved. Regulation and licensing of TV transmission from foreign spacecrafts over the surface of the Russian Federation and direct access of foreign content producers to user screens will be made, licensing of any content broadcasting to any screen will be required

Credit cards will die out, about ordinary money is not even mentioned.

A single payment system of the Russian Federation will be widely distributed. Payment instruments of foreign origin will be strictly regulated and used only through conversion. Credit cards will largely lose their value or disappear: most payments will be made remotely from a wearable device or by a single citizen identifier.

It is not entirely clear what needs to be done in the case of a trip abroad and how the presentation of information to a citizen of the Russian Federation will be regulated there.

True, life will be good:

Nanosensors (small disposable devices with a camera, sensors and radio communications) will be used to protect and monitor weather, environmental conditions, road and crop conditions, fire safety, traffic flows.

Any device, home or industrial, will have a connection to the Internet, a voice interface and built-in artificial intelligence, be controlled by voice, report on their functions and status, download updates, interact with each other. Everything: things, places, people, animals, plants will be recognized and marked up by augmented reality devices (tablets, smartphones, glasses, scanners, binoculars, etc.).

The growth of the resolution of a television picture will increase by orders of magnitude, the distinctive ability of the human eye will be exceeded (it will not be possible to determine by eye an image or real object), the speed of content delivery will increase to tens of gigabytes per second.

the proportion of user-generated content will increase, and the number of channels and broadcasters of content will reach thousands in each household. Video viewing will be completely personalized, the choice of content is based on recommendatory social mechanisms. Half of the video content will be consumed in cars and other vehicles.

Robots will be used in everyday life in most areas of activity: home robots (automatic interlocutors, nannies, butlers, maids), cleaning robots, window cleaners, lawn mowers, unmanned vehicles, robots for interacting with public services and services (control robots in elevators and escalators, public transport). Intellectual interlocutors and agents when dealing with retail commerce, government services, schedules, posters, any mass and retail services will be the most common interface. The professions of the receptionist and secretary on the telephone, cashier, security guard, watchman, consultant on the trading floor, etc., will practically disappear.

Well, a little for UAV supporters:

By 2025-2030, the national economy management system will be automated, so that commodity, cash, and logistics flows, government revenues and expenditures, and document management throughout the country will be generated and analyzed automatically.

Most of the passenger and cargo will be carried out by unmanned public transport. Cars will be equipped with radio tags, their systems will begin to communicate with each other, with traffic lights, road services and the police. Flying and floating drones will be widely used, in particular, for automatic delivery.

Gas stations will become deserted, payment of fuel and energy will be remote

In large retail stores there will be no cash desks and cashiers; the basket automatically read by the 3D scanner will be made automatically from electronic wallets: from the customer’s mobile wearable device or directly from his bank account.

The overwhelming part of the trade turnover in the country will be provided by online stores. The problem of delivery and responsibility for delivery, cancellation of payment and return of goods on the Internet will be solved.

And how to achieve all this?

A comprehensive system of development institutions will be created, providing access to inexpensive and “long” credit resources for long-term innovative projects. A system of flexible planning and coordination of their development will be created, including for individual products and business models, industries and technological trends, allowing them to flexibly adapt to changing conditions and change the infrastructure of the economy and state institutions according to the changing trends and challenges of science, technology and socio-economic development. For its effective development, a scientific and educational system will be created and constantly improved for the advance creation of the necessary future competencies and retraining of employees.

But this is the future, and what do we have now?

Due to the inaccessibility of high-quality medical services and the time spent on visiting doctors, the population of Russia has little use of medical services. The situation is aggravated by poor awareness and disbelief in the possibility of public and private medicine. According to the Ministry of Health, 55% of people in Russia are ready to go to another region or locality if they are provided with better medical care.

Up to 70% of drugs are purchased for the treatment of chronic patients, for whom visiting a pharmacy is often difficult. To prevent any abuse in this area, it is necessary to develop strict rules for selling drugs through the Internet, including the procedure for obtaining an electronic prescription.

The development of ICT in medicine can be supported by an emerging economically active, young population interested in a healthy lifestyle. Access to high-quality convenient medical services for this group of the population will simultaneously ensure an increase in the quality of life and the development of the quality of medical services. It is this audience that will act as a driver for new services in medicine, even though medical services are most in demand by the age audience.

It is completely incomprehensible why the young audience will become the driver of the development of medicine - it is good for the most part with health - the age audience has completely different needs and demands

Stimulation of the development of medical consulting and diagnostic services to the population of public and private medical institutions through electronic communication channels. Stimulation of the separation of functions of primary examination and diagnosis with the involvement of more experienced doctors in regional medical centers and special medical institutions. As a result of incentives, including legislative changes, measures to support entrepreneurship and public awareness, experts expect the following changes:
• Increased availability of medical services of equal quality throughout the country, regardless of the size and type of settlement;
• Reducing the cost of medical services beyond the MHI for the population, reducing the cost of medical care;
• An increase in the employment of doctors in the sparsely populated regions of the country and a decrease in the migration of doctors to large settlements

Ie roughly speaking, all the complex (they are expensive) work will be done remotely. With local doctors, this work will be removed. Why should their employment and salary increase - all the more so that in order to increase their qualifications they will now have to go to major cities?

Systematization, standardization and accessibility of medical knowledge of all kinds, including the creation or consolidation and streamlining of existing databases, databases of reference information (indices, registries), databases of medical organizations, medical reference books, equipment, etc. Application of the open data concept for create databases, indexes and registries.

I’m not sure that data openness is good in this case.

Internet capabilities allow you to create extensive training systems that involve several online and offline channels at the same time. In Russia, there are many new initiatives (start-ups) of commercial and non-commercial (for example, “total dictation”), however, attention and credibility to them is still small. The development of such initiatives stimulates not only the growth of the education system, but also the interest of the population in further education and personal development.

Russia is experiencing an acute shortage of ICT specialists due to the small (relative to demand) number of educational programs and the insufficient prestige of ICT specialties among schoolchildren and applicants.

And what's stopping us?

According to experts, the main barriers to the innovative development of the Internet in Russia are:

1) Lack of a single coordinator in making state decisions. The ICT industry is subordinated to the Ministry of Communications and Mass Media of Russia, the Ministry of Industry and Trade oversees the development of microelectronics and hardware, innovative development is supervised by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, the Ministry of Education and Science is the coordinator of the formation of the forecast of scientific and technological development does not allow to fully use the full potential of the development of the Internet as a driver of national economies and;

2) The absence of real tools and, in general, a mechanism for evaluating the effectiveness of the implementation of public policies aimed at developing the Internet economy, allowing independent evaluation of the effectiveness of the heads of federal executive bodies and senior officials (heads of the highest executive bodies of state power) of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation favorable conditions for the development of the Russian segment of the Internet in sectors of the economy.

That is a problem with the role of the state. There are no problems with the demand for relevant services, which would attract the attention of investors.

it is necessary to significantly simplify the processes of obtaining permits for building new and developing old infrastructure, simplifying procedures:

Our bureaucracy is yes ...

The experts noted that the main obstacles to the development of cloud technologies in Russia are:
• Underdevelopment of basic Internet infrastructure and broadband access networks;
• The unwillingness of top management of Russian companies to use cloud services - fear of data leakage, doubts about the quality of services, staff resistance;
• Lack of legal framework within which disputes regarding the management of cloud services can be resolved.

To reduce these barriers, it is necessary to develop legislative initiatives on security issues and the establishment of new standards for the development of network infrastructure.

Let's go to the plans in the field of software.

Creation of new and development of existing Russian software products, operating platforms and platform solutions in critical sectors of the economy for economic security and international competitiveness of products. In all sectors of the economy, the use of Russian software products, even those that are not inferior in performance to their foreign counterparts, is not enough. In this regard, it is necessary to:
• Identify a single developer of industry development strategy on behalf of the state, business, industry associations and consortia;
• Develop target programs for the development of the sector, programs for the development of individual integrated products and ICT systems, software for microelectronics, CAD, etc .;
• To stimulate the creation of sectoral and inter-sectoral consortia for the implementation of targeted programs, the development of promising products and platforms;
• Develop a system of long-term concessional financing of strategic projects, including export support;
• Improve state support measures, including the extension of the reduced rate of contributions to insurance funds, reduction of tax payments;
• To provide stimulation of demand by long-term orders and guarantees of purchases from the state and large corporations; create various preferences (tax concessions, accelerated depreciation, concessional financing, etc.) to state and other companies in terms of purchasing domestic software and ICT systems, direct orders for the development and development of promising and priority products for the state, etc .;
• Introduce the mandatory requirement of teaching the use of Russian software in state educational institutions, in state institutions, to stimulate big business to this;
• Increase the quantity and quality of students studying programming in Russian universities, including grants from the state and orders from Russian companies with commitments to work in Russia or backward compensation covering grants from the state, subsidies from companies, as well as government expenses for free education.

Creation of integral technological chains of software development and creation for the preservation and development of competencies and expertise, growth of competitiveness of Russian software on an international scale.
4) Creating software solutions in key software segments at the level of the best world analogues, ensuring a high level of competitiveness in the domestic and foreign markets, becoming one of the leaders in individual software products in the world. For this, according to experts, it is necessary to provide:
• Consulting, marketing, legal and credit support for the export of Russian companies in international markets through specialized companies and other instruments (VAT refunds, patent expenses, etc.);
• Implementation of demonstration projects to support companies entering the markets of China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam and others.

And as a result - access to the eastern markets. Access to the markets of developed countries is not planned.

No less interesting is the situation with iron:

The development strategies of the key companies in the global microelectronics market provide for a transition from the race for performance (in this industry is close to economic and even physical growth limits) to electronic systems engineering systems, achieving greater economic and product effects. At the same time, the industry as a whole does not refuse to develop improvements in the performance of microchips, but only optimizes the costs of them.

The rapid growth of current and the emergence of new segments of the electronics and microelectronics market can lead to an explosive growth in demand for their products. Russia , due to the creation from scratch of a number of new markets in this segment, is not lagging behind and can influence the formation of rules and standards for their development , in the future to become a leader in these new areas.

Everything turns out to be great!

Experts consider the key areas of microelectronics development in Russia:
1) Securing the management of infrastructure communication networks. This is extremely important for traditional tasks related to information security and for new ones related to information and cyber warfare. To ensure security in this sector, you must:
• Develop national standards and requirements for products in key strategic areas of the sector for use in Russia, as well as with international partners and in international markets;
• Determine data transfer protocols, national requirements for the reliability and stability of systems, in order to provide the Russian manufacturer with additional orders;
• Create and develop a Russian computer operating system based on an open platform.

Stimulate the development and use of Russian microelectronic products. Establishing government requirements for energy efficiency standards and environmental friendliness of equipment, above all energy, may become an indirect driver of industry growth, will require the introduction of more advanced energy systems and microelectronic equipment, will contribute to the development of modern technologies: the Internet of things, cloud, etc.

Enterprises of the microelectronics sector are also experiencing a shortage of financial and human resources, have insufficient orders from state corporations and government agencies, a low level of protection of microelectronics and electronic equipment in Russia from bookmarks and information attacks, like other enterprises of the ICT industry, are at a disadvantage compared to with foreign competitors.

Experts believe that to support domestic producers it is necessary to:
• Establish restrictions for organizations that execute a government order, in terms of purchasing foreign services and products for its implementation, subject to the availability of similar, competitive services or products in Russia;
• Develop targeted programs for the development of the sector in key strategic areas that influence the development of the Internet economy;
• Stimulate the creation of sectoral and inter-sectoral consortia for the development of complex projects and technologies;
• Develop measures to provide long-term concessional financing for the development of strategic projects;
• Develop measures to provide tax benefits, including the establishment of a rate of contribution to social funds, similar to IT companies;
• Preserve and improve state support measures that exist for microelectronics companies in special economic zones and technoparks;
• Ensure the formation of long-term orders and the provision of procurement guarantees from the state and large corporations;
• Develop programs for advanced applied research through grants and other forms of state funding aimed at developing the Internet economy;

In general, everything is good, but you need to close the market for competitors, reduce taxes and provide state injections. As mentioned below:

One of the barriers to the development of the use of the Internet in its related industries and in industries with little penetration of the Internet ... The barrier is also the unwillingness of enterprises to compete with new services and products of the Internet economy, and sometimes the lack of demand for new Internet products and solutions

But back to the plans

3) Development of internationally competitive platforms and products, technologies and solutions for mass demand, including:
• Introduction of protective customs duties on the importation of end products of consumer equipment and electronics, subject to availability of analogues produced in the territory of the Russian Federation;
• Abolition of customs duties for the importation into the territory of the Russian Federation of electronic components.

And we will develop self-assembly support.

Development of fully Russian technological chains of production of products for the development of expertise and competencies, growth of competitiveness, including ensuring a sharp increase in domestic demand for Russian-made products. This requires the development of an entrepreneurial environment and the creation of an understandable algorithm for developing and introducing client microelectronic devices to the mass market along the chain: universities - venture funds - production - procurement

Domestic demand - by the way, as if not the only mention of its development - will be developed by financing the development. It is a wonderful thing, but how much money will it be purchased by the population?

And about the pirates of course:

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• Stimulation of the creation of Russian large digital content platforms with the availability of all or most of the legal video, etc., transparent to Russian regulatory bodies.

The focus on high competitiveness of Russian goods is wonderful. But there are dissent

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In the countries of the European Union, a multistage system of regulating the import of goods for personal use is applied. The minimum threshold for duty-free import in these countries is 17-22 euros. Starting from this amount, all imported goods are subject to VAT. Further, VAT and an additional fee will be charged on amounts over 150 euros.

Well, as a result - the Road Map “A set of measures for the development of the media communication industry.” By December 2016 should be:

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