What professional skills will become significant in the coming years?

In this article, Tyler Cowan, a professor of economics at George Mason University, will tell you how income inequality, automation and artificial intelligence will change our work and life , and who will benefit from these changes.

In 2011, Foreign Policy Magazine ranked Tyler Cowen to 72nd place in his ranking of the “Top 100 World Wise Men”.
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Tyler is the best-selling author of the New York Times, who has written 13 books, among which are “Discover your inner economist” ^★ and “Great Stagnation” ^★ .

Tyler and I discussed the skills that will become important in the coming years, when ordering a dish with the worst name on the menu makes sense, and why the end of Star Wars is contrary to the future.

Obey the machines

Eric:

One of the leitmotifs of the book "Average left behind" ^★ sounds like "listen to the machines."

Tyler:

The smarter the cars become, the clearer the outlines of how people should change. We are accustomed to the fact that we are the only creatures endowed with mental abilities - the mind. But today, if the car is smarter than you, then this is a new level of development, and you need to know when to give it up. This applies to understanding when the advantage is yours, and when the machine, and more and more recently, the championship remains behind it. I think that along with this comes back such virtue as humility.

Eric:

Who will succeed in the future, and how can we prepare for what awaits us, in your opinion?

Tyler:

More will achieve those who have the ability to work with computers and software programming. This is obvious, but I think that with increasing income inequality, there will be success for specialists who are well positioned in the service sector, who have some sort of marketing plan, or who have managed to capture the attention of better-off people. In principle, all psychology-related skills will be scarce in the future, since computers have not yet reached the required level in this area. Good professions will be associated with branding. These include all industries that analyze ways of capturing people's attention. I think this is really a promising sector.

Marketing and motivation: do what is not available to computers

Eric:

You talked a lot about the importance of marketing in the future.

Tyler:

Theoretically, marketing for a neoclassical economist is a complex problem. This is partly due to the art of persuasion, which we have not been able to fully understand, and partly to the ability to win the attention of a person that is almost impossible for modeling. The increase in the share of marketing in our economy signals a constant limitation of the ability of economic theory to explain the current situation. I predict an increase in the significance of those whom I call "economic anthropologists." It will be difficult for them to prove that, along with traditional accountants, they are engaged in science, but their work will make it possible to understand the essence of current events.
Therefore, I am a big fan of people like Grant McCracken, who, in fact, is an anthropologist. He spends a lot of time working with companies and helps them figure out what their customers care about and how to capture the attention of these people.

Eric:

You also mentioned motivators. You said that the importance of people capable of stimulating others to act will grow in the coming years.

Tyler:

Many of us will be like preachers. Imagine a priest or deacon in a church trying to keep someone’s attention, forcing others to follow the moral code of religion. "Go back to church." "Give the money to the church." And so on. Here is the same: the cheaper it is to produce things for which there is a clear demand, the more important is the attraction of attention, human resources and charitable donations, and simply the motivation to work. Many professions in the future will be a mixture of what makes people feel pride in themselves or remorse. And again, all this rests on having a clear understanding of the elements of human psychology.

“There is no shortage of information; everything depends only on the desire to work with it.”

Eric:

You paid a lot of attention to such a personal trait as conscientiousness. There has now been a broad discussion of such non-cognitive skills, for example, in the books of Paul Tafa “How Children Achieve Success” ^★ and “The Work of Angela Duckworth” ^★ . Can you talk about how integrity will become more important in the future?

Tyler:

Paul Thaph wrote a very interesting book, mostly about returning to stamina. He has a very good last name for this (approx. Tough means “hardy” in English). Here's how to look at it: the more information is available, the more you win if you just want to sit down and find a use for yourself. There is no shortage of information; everything depends only on the desire to work with it. Therefore, if you are a native, say, from China or India, and you are really smart and have a high level of motivation, you are much more likely to succeed in this new world than you did, for example, 10 or 20 years ago.

But in more prosperous countries there are many people whom I would not call lazy, they simply do not differ in superstrong motivation. They think they can more or less make ends meet and be normal. It seems to me that these people have already experienced a relative decrease in wages, because in reality they are not as valuable employees as they think. They will be fine. They can always find a job, but they are not at risk of increasing income. And I think it can be an unpleasant discovery for many.

Eric:

Given the vision of the future presented in the “Medium is in the Past” ^★ , what should today's students specialize in and what skills do they need to work on?

Tyler:

It all depends on what you can do, what you have a tendency, and what you like. If you are not enjoying the abstract good deed, then I will not push you on this path. First, you will become unhappy, and secondly, do not show any abilities. I will emphasize the point: it seems to me that there will be a lot of so-called programmatic humanitarian sources that are theoretically capable of bringing decent wages to diligent and intelligent employees. I don’t want to say that everyone should become programmers, especially since a huge amount of this work can be done by outside organizations or entrusted to “intelligent” machines.
Therefore, I would just pay attention to the fact that the value of understanding the course of the thought of another person acquired in the process of obtaining a profile education is very great. But only if you like it and you have a clear inclination for such activities. It should not be all in the mass order to engage in computer science. However, of course, many should think about it.

Eric:

But even those who will not do this, still need to learn to “obey the machines”?

Tyler:

GPS is a good example. GPS is not perfect, but usually the imperfections are in us, not in the GPS program. The more we rely on intelligent machines, the more we want to use them. And this leads to the fact that we make our environment easier and, to some extent, meaningless, literal. It is such that everything can be arranged on the shelves and explained, such as, for example, entering information about a chessboard into a computer. Therefore, I think this is the path in which changes will take place in the world, as well as the roads will change to become suitable for unmanned vehicles. But we are mostly not ready for this. It seems to me that change is a huge plus, but, to some extent, the world will become uglier and seem dumber. It resembles an auxiliary menu. You can do everything right by simply pressing the keys. But it annoys people. In general, you get better service and a cheaper product than the old system with mercenary operators, but, as you know, many people do not like this system.

Do not use force, Luke

Eric:

In the book, you also discuss an application based on artificial intelligence, which is able to make recommendations in the field of social or romantic relationships, for example, when exactly you should kiss someone on a date. Do you think romantics will refuse this? People who do not want to apply scientific knowledge in these areas of their lives?

Tyler:

I assume that such people will be half. But those who will obey the machines can succeed. They will get more chances for a successful marriage. Their dates will be more successful. They will kiss or do what the car advises, on time. Their portfolio will be better. Their diets will be more effective. Whatever the matter, I always expect that about half of humanity will not want to obey.

Eric:

Interesting. So it’s not so much “to be able” to obey the car as to “want” to use its advice. Philosophical question.

Tyler:

Right. I assume that this is due to humility, because the machine many times will make it clear what to do. Therefore, you will not need to learn to read tea leaves if you learn to use the machine. But often she will give advice that will seem wrong. She will say: “Hey, you live in Manhattan. Go on a date with this guy from New Jersey. ” And you are: “Oh, New Jersey. And I live in Manhattan. " On average, if this happens, someone decides: “Why not try it?” But the whole point of the car is that it goes against your intuition, which is far from perfect. Therefore, of course, many will think: “Oh, I know that the machines are right, but they do not understand me. This computer has never been to New Jersey. So let him go there himself. " And then they will flee to Brooklyn.

Eric:

I was immediately struck by the climax of Star Wars. Obi-Wan's ghost tells Luke: “Turn off the control computer and use power. Trust yourself. Do not use a computer. Secular religion, preached by Hollywood, always calls to follow your feelings and intuition - and what you say is diametrically opposed to this.

Tyler:

True, Obi-Wan also tells Luke: “Finish your studies in the Dagobah system.” Right? How many times did he tell him that? Yoda tells him. Yoda. What does Luc do? He asks Yoda to stop bothering him. So I think people are programmed to be a little rebellious and out of control. But at the same time, they are well aware that the rest are trying to control them just as they are trying to control them. But this means that in the new conditions that we have not yet encountered in the course of evolution, we can destroy much. Just like Luke, who did not complete his studies in the Dagobah system.

PS We recommend another article on the topic - Career tips for representatives of the Millennium generation: 10 ways to get a job.

Translated by Vyacheslav Davidenko, founder of MBA Consult