Amazon wins, Patch dies, media appears that only works on Facebook, and other predictions for 2012
Editorial note: We are completing 2011 with a survey of the most intelligent experts in the field of journalism. Below are their predictions about media business, journalism, various sites in 2012. The list includes: Brian Boer , Rick Edmonds , Kevin Kelly , Joy Mayer , Alan Murray , Alan Mutter , Geneva Overholser , Howard Owens and Sri Srinivasan . The entire list of our publications on this topic can be found here .
What will 2012 bring? More adequate sites instead of proprietary applications for different platforms, new products that will not be sharpened for desktops, but for mobile devices and tablets, a new term that will combine mobile / tablets / pocket / sofa devices, and a huge number of flying video cameras ... Just everything that I do now. It will be a fun year.
I hate being boring, giving obvious predictions, but in 2012 and maybe in 2013 I don’t expect anything particularly new. There will still be problems with advertising revenues, although the general hysterics over the transition to numbers may subside due to improvements in the economy. The digital revolution in newspapers is a long thing, so I’ll be surprised if 2012 is a breakthrough year. Definitely it can be said that paid access to content and package subscriptions will gain momentum. Many may opt out of the paper version or home delivery on certain days of the week, but it is unlikely that they will immediately or otherwise.
You know, I have long been concerned that cuts, of which there will be many more, can greatly reduce the reporter's potential in many media. As the Pulitzer Prize winner Glen Frankel said in an interview with John Temple several years ago: “If we have nothing to say, nothing to do as journalists, then we don’t need new technologies. We don't need to be at all. We will not be. "
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Electronic books will continue to grow like mushrooms, Amazon will prevail over paper book publishing, Google+ will become a channel with the possibility of making money, tablets with touchscreens will lose their sharpness, streaming TV will begin to overshadow the broadcast, games will try to make a news delivery tool, and the first one will really open successful media that will work exclusively within Facebook.
News will increasingly become a dialogue format, rather than a simple sequence of reports.
In 2012, the gap between journalists who specifically monitor and serve the needs of the audience, and those who continue to work in the old manner, based on their own ideas about their needs, will widen. It is a pity, but I can not say anything particularly optimistic about the crumbling standards. On the contrary, I am going to follow the examples of new formats, where the news will be a developing dialogue, and not a cycle of one-sided journalistic reports. In an election year, it is especially important to be responsive to the information needs of users and participate in discussions.
Printed word and video will continue to merge. With the advent of new technologies, it makes no sense for a good reporter to limit himself to just paper. As there is no sense in television reporters who just take off.
The popularity of the ipedo will make news sites become more readable, easily viewed and less awkward.
Mobile themes, relevant last year, will remain relevant in this. The best media will find new ways to deliver content on smartphones.
In 2012, the best coverage of the elections will be made for the first time by those media outlets that give priority to a figure.
Sorry, Siri, but I don’t think that in 2012 people will start talking to their newspapers and websites. Maybe next year.
In the new year, large technology companies will follow smaller publishing and broadcasting companies more than ever before. Many regional companies never dreamed of what awaited them. As discussed in my blog , this is what you need to wait in 2012 and beyond:
Socially significant information will increase in volume, the number of its sources will grow from individuals to organizations of various kinds. The findings and results of the analysis of this information will not be obvious to society. By generating different feelings and thoughts in some, it will leave others at a loss, inability to determine who to trust and what to believe. Communities will conclude that reliable and complete information about what is happening is a public good that needs their support. Discussions on the future of journalism will be enriched with a wider range of opinions, they will be held in more places and at different venues.
Traditional media companies will continue to try to innovate from above, but they will not really succeed in this. Passive resistance in them will continue to keep progress. Many newspapers will introduce paid access to their content. And some of them will find that they are competing with news startups that work only on the network.
The revenues of all newspapers will decrease, even if the economy starts to grow.
Business will be unstable, but the business model will develop.
The Patch project will not survive this year.
The fall of Patch will strengthen the long-known truth among the leaders: “You see! We said: hyperlocal media cannot build a viable business model. ”
But in the meantime, individual local companies will continue to struggle for survival, gradually increasing the viability of their business.
The number of independent online publishers in the United States will double in 2012. We do not have accurate data on how many regional Internet news companies exist in the market, but this segment will continue to grow.
I am very optimistic about the media scene in 2012. Although there will still be a lot of concern on the market about possible and actual layoffs and tightening belts in newspapers and on TV, there will be many new web projects. My boss Nick Lehman, the dean of the school of journalism at Columbia University , often says that the future of journalism is “digital and highly specialized”. This trend is definitely more pronounced in 2012. Journalists who already know how to work with numbers should take advantage of new opportunities or find a way to use their skills in a new way to really shine.
The last prediction: I hope, I am mistaken, but I think I will be asked for the Nth time after some more hype in the news: “Have social media finally matured?”
Brian boer
What will 2012 bring? More adequate sites instead of proprietary applications for different platforms, new products that will not be sharpened for desktops, but for mobile devices and tablets, a new term that will combine mobile / tablets / pocket / sofa devices, and a huge number of flying video cameras ... Just everything that I do now. It will be a fun year.
Rick Edmonds
I hate being boring, giving obvious predictions, but in 2012 and maybe in 2013 I don’t expect anything particularly new. There will still be problems with advertising revenues, although the general hysterics over the transition to numbers may subside due to improvements in the economy. The digital revolution in newspapers is a long thing, so I’ll be surprised if 2012 is a breakthrough year. Definitely it can be said that paid access to content and package subscriptions will gain momentum. Many may opt out of the paper version or home delivery on certain days of the week, but it is unlikely that they will immediately or otherwise.
You know, I have long been concerned that cuts, of which there will be many more, can greatly reduce the reporter's potential in many media. As the Pulitzer Prize winner Glen Frankel said in an interview with John Temple several years ago: “If we have nothing to say, nothing to do as journalists, then we don’t need new technologies. We don't need to be at all. We will not be. "
')
Kevin kelly
Electronic books will continue to grow like mushrooms, Amazon will prevail over paper book publishing, Google+ will become a channel with the possibility of making money, tablets with touchscreens will lose their sharpness, streaming TV will begin to overshadow the broadcast, games will try to make a news delivery tool, and the first one will really open successful media that will work exclusively within Facebook.
Joey mayer
News will increasingly become a dialogue format, rather than a simple sequence of reports.
In 2012, the gap between journalists who specifically monitor and serve the needs of the audience, and those who continue to work in the old manner, based on their own ideas about their needs, will widen. It is a pity, but I can not say anything particularly optimistic about the crumbling standards. On the contrary, I am going to follow the examples of new formats, where the news will be a developing dialogue, and not a cycle of one-sided journalistic reports. In an election year, it is especially important to be responsive to the information needs of users and participate in discussions.
Alan Murray
Printed word and video will continue to merge. With the advent of new technologies, it makes no sense for a good reporter to limit himself to just paper. As there is no sense in television reporters who just take off.
The popularity of the ipedo will make news sites become more readable, easily viewed and less awkward.
Mobile themes, relevant last year, will remain relevant in this. The best media will find new ways to deliver content on smartphones.
In 2012, the best coverage of the elections will be made for the first time by those media outlets that give priority to a figure.
Sorry, Siri, but I don’t think that in 2012 people will start talking to their newspapers and websites. Maybe next year.
Alan Mutter
In the new year, large technology companies will follow smaller publishing and broadcasting companies more than ever before. Many regional companies never dreamed of what awaited them. As discussed in my blog , this is what you need to wait in 2012 and beyond:
- Google already knows everything about the streets from Portland to New York in order to successfully sell ads and reference directories for small and medium businesses. Small and medium business - the latest support for local newspapers and directories.
- Amazon has long been ripe in order to oust local stores and supermarkets, as he did with the example of the book trade. Main Street and Big Mall are the largest advertisers in local newspapers, local radio stations and TV. If Amazon and other digital competitors bypass local retailers, regional media will suffer along with them.
- This month, Microsoft has succeeded in gradually splitting the regional audience of terrestrial and cable TV, starting to provide access to Netflix and ESPN through its Xbox game consoles. On the successes of Apple in this field, we have yet to hear. When Apple, Google, Sony, Netflix, or anyone else does the right Internet TV — and someone does it for sure — the local on-air and cable TV will disappear. The same will happen with their business model.
- Facebook has not collected the budgets of regional advertisers. Until. But the infectious Yakovnost (self-centeredness, personalization - comment of the translator) of its content penetrates deeper and deeper into the minds of the audience of all traditional media. And the advertiser will follow the audience - this is an axiom. There is no regional media company that can compete with the breadth of coverage and the subtlety of customizing Facebook advertising opportunities. As the younger generation enters the business, they will increasingly turn to Facebook opportunities, looking for clients among friends and friends of their friends. A simple comparison of advertising prices with local media does not speak in favor of the latter.
Geneva Overholser
Socially significant information will increase in volume, the number of its sources will grow from individuals to organizations of various kinds. The findings and results of the analysis of this information will not be obvious to society. By generating different feelings and thoughts in some, it will leave others at a loss, inability to determine who to trust and what to believe. Communities will conclude that reliable and complete information about what is happening is a public good that needs their support. Discussions on the future of journalism will be enriched with a wider range of opinions, they will be held in more places and at different venues.
Howard owens
Traditional media companies will continue to try to innovate from above, but they will not really succeed in this. Passive resistance in them will continue to keep progress. Many newspapers will introduce paid access to their content. And some of them will find that they are competing with news startups that work only on the network.
The revenues of all newspapers will decrease, even if the economy starts to grow.
Business will be unstable, but the business model will develop.
The Patch project will not survive this year.
The fall of Patch will strengthen the long-known truth among the leaders: “You see! We said: hyperlocal media cannot build a viable business model. ”
But in the meantime, individual local companies will continue to struggle for survival, gradually increasing the viability of their business.
The number of independent online publishers in the United States will double in 2012. We do not have accurate data on how many regional Internet news companies exist in the market, but this segment will continue to grow.
Sri Srinivasan
I am very optimistic about the media scene in 2012. Although there will still be a lot of concern on the market about possible and actual layoffs and tightening belts in newspapers and on TV, there will be many new web projects. My boss Nick Lehman, the dean of the school of journalism at Columbia University , often says that the future of journalism is “digital and highly specialized”. This trend is definitely more pronounced in 2012. Journalists who already know how to work with numbers should take advantage of new opportunities or find a way to use their skills in a new way to really shine.
The last prediction: I hope, I am mistaken, but I think I will be asked for the Nth time after some more hype in the news: “Have social media finally matured?”
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/288254/
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