Google predicts Oscar winners

There are a few days left before the Oscars, perhaps the most famous and significant film award in the world. Specifically for this event, Google opened the page The Oscars , dedicated to the nominees for the award. On the evening of February 24, the live broadcast of the awards ceremony will begin there, but for now the space is given to the demonstration of Google technologies - voice search, Google Now, Hangouts and others.

However, the most interesting is the rating of possible winners, based on Google Trends . This technology allows you to find out the frequency of queries in a search engine for a certain period of time. And if the Oscars were presented to those nominees whose names and names are most often searched on the Internet, then the winners in the main nominations would be ...


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Best Movie - “Operation Argo ”

Among the nominees presented, the film Ben Affleck users are most often looking for. However, it can be assumed that only requests in English are taken into account. Anyway, and in the opinion of the users of IMDB, the film turned out to be good - its rating of 8.0 speaks about it. “Operation Argo ” talks about rescuing American diplomats from revolutionary Iran in 1980, and elegantly turns a possible story for an action movie into an exciting and “smart” story, where dialogue is more interesting than explosions.

The probability of coincidence of the forecast: quite high, the film has already received the Golden Globe.

Behind him in the ranking are: "Miserable", "Lincoln", "Django liberated" and "Life of Pi".



Best actress - Jennifer Lawrence (for the role in the film “My boyfriend is crazy”)

Despite the fact that in Russia the film Silver Linings Playbook was not lucky with the translation of the title, this will not affect the opinion of English-speaking users. However, as well as on the opinion of cinema academics - the probability of coincidence of the Google Trends forecast and the results of the awards ceremony is very high. This year allowed us to talk about the discovery of a new star - Jennifer Lawrence looked equally organically in the sensational film adaptation of the novel The Hunger Games, and in the more complex role of Tiffany in the Silver Linings Playbook. Among all the nominees, Lawrence has the greatest chances to get an Oscar, especially if film academics have seen her photoset for Esquire not prepared for any surprise.

The probability of coincidence of the forecast: high.

The following places in the rankings were taken: Jessica Chastain, Naomi Watts, young Queensan Wallis and the venerable Emmanuel Riva.



Best Actor - Hugh Jackman (for his role in the film adaptation of the musical "Les Miserable")

It's more and more complicated here. Jackman's popularity in Google Trends is explicable, first of all, by the popularity of the actor himself and the film “Les Miserables”, but the cinema academics hardly share the delight of singers Jean Valjean. The fact is that the "Outcast" were met with criticism ambiguously, and sometimes very cool, which drastically reduces Jackman's chances to get an Oscar. Most likely, someone from other nominees will get the statuette, especially probably the actor who played in the “patriotic” film that is now popular in Hollywood.

The probability of coincidence of the forecast: low. Americans will prefer American patriotism to French.

Following in the ranking are: Denzel Washington, Daniel Day-Lewis, Bradley Cooper and Joaquin Phoenix.



Best Director - Steven Spielberg (for the movie "Lincoln")

Steven Spielberg shot another film on a historical theme, which was once again nominated for an Oscar. From the viewer side, Lincoln seems like a solid job, but who doubted that Steven Spielberg can make a movie? Most likely, the popularity of Spielberg’s name itself provided him leadership in Google Trends, since not one of the competing directors could boast comparable fame. However, for film academics the name has little meaning. “Best Director” is a nomination too difficult to predict this year.

The probability of coincidence of the forecast: everything is difficult.

Following in the ranking are: Ang Lee, David Owen Russell, Michael Haneke and Ben Zaytlin.

Google predicted the winners in two other categories: if Oscar winners were chosen according to Google Trends statistics, the prize for Best Supporting Actress would have been Anne Hathaway (which may well coincide with the results of this Oscar), and supporting actress Christoph Waltz .

Regardless of how much Google Trends forecasts coincide with the opinion of cinema academics, their results seem fascinating and interesting. Analysis of search engine query data allows us to evaluate the opinions and interests of a huge number of people, which was impossible a decade ago. Traditional sociological polls are beginning to lose their relevance and pale in comparison with the colossal opinion poll, in which each of us takes part every day - just by typing a word in the search box.