Scenarios for the development of the Russian IT industry until 2025
The report includes an overview of the current state of the Russian IT market, its key trends and risks, as well as the international experience of Singapore and Israel. The forecast presents three scenarios for the development of the market over the next ten years: "Open Market", "Particular Way" and "Lost Decade".
The report was executed by EY by request of RVK , the full version of the report is available on the website.
The most favorable scenario provides for the policy of import substitution in the form of state support for new products in areas that are promising in the international market. The state will reduce participation in the industry while expanding the presence of Russian companies in the global market and increasing their revenues.
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In this case, the efforts of the state are focused on improving the conditions for business, on research and education. Investors will review the risk assessment with the stability of the Russian financial system.
A threat to the industry will be a shortage of personnel that will pose a challenge to the state. It is necessary to create and develop human potential and improve the quality of training.
In the “Special Way” scenario, the situation in the domestic market is relatively stable, but access to Russian technologies from Western countries will remain. The state will support the IT industry and deal with the strategy of import substitution, there will be products that are in demand in some foreign markets, especially in the BRICS countries.
The ruble rate is stabilizing. The structure of the state budget will change, low-efficient costs will be reduced, and the funds will be spent on investments. Russian system integrators, software and hardware manufacturers will be supported by a wave of government informatization.
The global IT market will become bipolar: American and some European IT giants will be opposed by companies from India, China, Singapore and Russia.
The least attractive scenario for the development of events will be a long-term restriction of access for Russian IT companies to the world market, a reduction in private investment in the country, an outflow of qualified personnel, and inefficient work in education.
The number of startups in the industry will decrease. Reduced company costs for hardware and software. The state will become the largest customer and investor in the industry.
Roman Kosyachkov, Managing Director of RVK:
The report was executed by EY by request of RVK , the full version of the report is available on the website.
Open market
The most favorable scenario provides for the policy of import substitution in the form of state support for new products in areas that are promising in the international market. The state will reduce participation in the industry while expanding the presence of Russian companies in the global market and increasing their revenues.
')
In this case, the efforts of the state are focused on improving the conditions for business, on research and education. Investors will review the risk assessment with the stability of the Russian financial system.
A threat to the industry will be a shortage of personnel that will pose a challenge to the state. It is necessary to create and develop human potential and improve the quality of training.
Special way
In the “Special Way” scenario, the situation in the domestic market is relatively stable, but access to Russian technologies from Western countries will remain. The state will support the IT industry and deal with the strategy of import substitution, there will be products that are in demand in some foreign markets, especially in the BRICS countries.
The ruble rate is stabilizing. The structure of the state budget will change, low-efficient costs will be reduced, and the funds will be spent on investments. Russian system integrators, software and hardware manufacturers will be supported by a wave of government informatization.
The global IT market will become bipolar: American and some European IT giants will be opposed by companies from India, China, Singapore and Russia.
Lost decade
The least attractive scenario for the development of events will be a long-term restriction of access for Russian IT companies to the world market, a reduction in private investment in the country, an outflow of qualified personnel, and inefficient work in education.
The number of startups in the industry will decrease. Reduced company costs for hardware and software. The state will become the largest customer and investor in the industry.
Roman Kosyachkov, Managing Director of RVK:
Obviously, the Russian IT industry has significant potential for innovation development and globalization. But in order to realize this potential, carefully thought-out, verified and coordinated actions developed in the framework of a constructive dialogue between the state and industry participants are required. A significant role in this process, no doubt, can and should be played by development institutions.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/283898/
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