What awaits us in the next 25 years? Predictions from Raymond Kurzweil
Raymond Kurzweil, who predicted computer victory in a chess game with a man in 1997, in 1990, the ability of personal computers to get answers on the Internet without wires by 2010 and using exoskeletons in medicine in the early 2000s gave a forecast for the next 25 years. People will not be allowed to drive on highways, we will be able to load our consciousness into a computer and connect our brains to an artificial neocortex.
American aviation engineer and entrepreneur Peter Diamandis interviewed Raymond Kurzweil for his new book BOLD.
In 1990, he predicted ...
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... that the computer will win a chess fight with the world champion until 1998. The victory took place a little earlier - in 1997, IBM's Deep Blue computer beat Garry Kasparov.
... that computers will be able to respond to requests with access to information via the Internet without wires by 2010.
... that in the early 2000s, exoskeleton joints will help people with disabilities walk. And exoskeletons in medicine are really used.
In 1999, Raymond predicted ...
... that people will talk to computers and give them commands until 2009. Apple Siri began to develop in 2007, and the first iPhone with it - the 4S model - went on sale in 2011. In 2012, Google Now appeared in Android 4.1.
... that computer displays embedded in augmented reality glasses will appear by 2009. Laboratories and research teams worked on similar gadgets until 2009, and Google began experimenting with prototypes of Google Glass in 2011. Today, there are many similar devices, including those just introduced by Microsoft Hololens.
In 2005, he predicted ...
... that by 2010 there will be solutions that can translate oral speech into the language of the listener and display it in the form of subtitles visible to users of augmented reality glasses. Miscosoft does this with Skype Translate, Google with Translate. Word Lens uses the camera and translates texts online on the display of smartphones.
Peter Diamandis noted that it is especially important for entrepreneurs to listen to Kurzweil’s forecast for the near and distant future and think about how these events may affect their business.
By the end of 2010, glasses will be able to project images directly onto the retina. The amount of memory in 10 TB (about as much data contains the human brain) will cost $ 1000.
By 2020, most of the disease will disappear, as nanobots will become smarter than current medical technology. Normal human food can replace nanosystems. The computer will pass the Turing Test. Unmanned vehicles will become commonplace, and live drivers will not be allowed to drive on high-speed highways.
Virtual reality will seem 100% real by 2030. We will be able to load our mind / consciousness into the car by the end of this decade.
By 2040, non-biological intelligence will be billions of times more powerful than ours. Nanotechnologies will allow to make food from rarefied air and create any objects of the physical world.
By 2045, we will multiply our intellect by connecting the brain to a synthetic neocortex in the cloud.
Raymond's predictions are based on his understanding of Moore's Law and the “Law of Accelerating Return” developed by him. Technologies will develop exponentially - not just computer.
Peter Diamandis:
American aviation engineer and entrepreneur Peter Diamandis interviewed Raymond Kurzweil for his new book BOLD.
What predictions has Raymond Kurzweil made over the past 25 years?
In 1990, he predicted ...
')
... that the computer will win a chess fight with the world champion until 1998. The victory took place a little earlier - in 1997, IBM's Deep Blue computer beat Garry Kasparov.
... that computers will be able to respond to requests with access to information via the Internet without wires by 2010.
... that in the early 2000s, exoskeleton joints will help people with disabilities walk. And exoskeletons in medicine are really used.
In 1999, Raymond predicted ...
... that people will talk to computers and give them commands until 2009. Apple Siri began to develop in 2007, and the first iPhone with it - the 4S model - went on sale in 2011. In 2012, Google Now appeared in Android 4.1.
... that computer displays embedded in augmented reality glasses will appear by 2009. Laboratories and research teams worked on similar gadgets until 2009, and Google began experimenting with prototypes of Google Glass in 2011. Today, there are many similar devices, including those just introduced by Microsoft Hololens.
In 2005, he predicted ...
... that by 2010 there will be solutions that can translate oral speech into the language of the listener and display it in the form of subtitles visible to users of augmented reality glasses. Miscosoft does this with Skype Translate, Google with Translate. Word Lens uses the camera and translates texts online on the display of smartphones.
Raymond's predictions for the next 25 years
Peter Diamandis noted that it is especially important for entrepreneurs to listen to Kurzweil’s forecast for the near and distant future and think about how these events may affect their business.
By the end of 2010, glasses will be able to project images directly onto the retina. The amount of memory in 10 TB (about as much data contains the human brain) will cost $ 1000.
By 2020, most of the disease will disappear, as nanobots will become smarter than current medical technology. Normal human food can replace nanosystems. The computer will pass the Turing Test. Unmanned vehicles will become commonplace, and live drivers will not be allowed to drive on high-speed highways.
Virtual reality will seem 100% real by 2030. We will be able to load our mind / consciousness into the car by the end of this decade.
By 2040, non-biological intelligence will be billions of times more powerful than ours. Nanotechnologies will allow to make food from rarefied air and create any objects of the physical world.
By 2045, we will multiply our intellect by connecting the brain to a synthetic neocortex in the cloud.
Raymond's predictions are based on his understanding of Moore's Law and the “Law of Accelerating Return” developed by him. Technologies will develop exponentially - not just computer.
Peter Diamandis:
As humans, we think linearly. As entrepreneurs, we must think exponentially. I always talk about six-dimensional exponential thinking ... Look at the largest companies that were destroyed as a result of technological advances in artificial intelligence, virtual reality, robotics, optical character recognition, mobile phones, translation software, voice control technologies. Each of these technologies dematerialized, demonetized, and democratized access to services and products that were linear and non-scalable. Now these technologies allow multi-million dollar companies to exist and affect billions of lives.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/283852/
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