Cloud - the future you have created
Well-known futurist Kevin Kelly talks about the future of cloud technologies, their driving forces, the future changes that they will make to existing business models, and why in the near future artificial intelligence will surround us everywhere ... and why it’s not too late to become part of all this.
Kevin Kelly, Independent Expert, Founder of Wired Magazine
The cloud will soon become akin to the atmosphere - we will all live in it every day, without even feeling it. The only thing we can notice is its absence. The cloud becomes a universal environment, what history has not yet known.
Three driving forces
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The cloud became possible due to the convergence of the three factors with the rapid pace of development - these are data, network bandwidth and intelligence.
1. Data
Data is the product that is produced in the largest quantity in the world. The growth of data is 66%, it is literally explosive growth. Data volumes are already measured in exabytes, zettabytes, yottabytes ... With such rates we will soon run out of names. We can hardly estimate the scale of the data. We simply cannot grasp the scale of how to produce and manage data at such a growth rate.
But this new megashkala gives tremendous opportunities: everything that can be measured will be measured; Anything that can be tracked will be tracked. As the size of the sensors decreases, we will track almost everything. Now, no matter what business you are in, this is a business with data. This is the impetus for the development of the cloud.
2. Network bandwidth
Network bandwidth is expanding rapidly, the network is becoming wireless, penetrating everywhere. According to my forecasts, in a couple of years the amount of wireless traffic will exceed the amount of wired network traffic. The car will be a new office with an even wider channel than at your home. Bandwidth is a secret ingredient, as it expands, the cloud grows as well.
3. Intellect
The third important factor is artificial intelligence (AI). Some of this intelligence is already embedded in computers and robots, but the most important AI will come to us from the cloud. Even robots will get their AI from the cloud.
Google, Baidu, Microsoft and Facebook are all endowed with giant cloud-based intelligence. But these are private clouds. Such companies do not sell intelligence as a service.
It will not take four years, as companies like Amazon will begin offering cloud-based AI services for applications such as data processing and pattern recognition. Already, artificial intelligence recognizes X-rays better than most doctors, interprets evidence better than many experts. Yes, and the pilots control the aircraft on the strength of eight minutes during the entire flight.
AI is provided as a cloud service. Now you can talk about intelligence as a service - connect and get as much “mind” as you need.
AI is needed for a cloud with its huge amounts of data to benefit. The more people use AI, the smarter it becomes. The smarter he gets, the more people will want to use it. Artificial intelligence is a driving force in the development of cloud technologies for the next 20 years.
X + AI = Service
Let's take X and figure out how to make a cloud service out of it. Our main goal is to take something that exists physically, add artificial intelligence and get something brilliant.
Already, about 9,000 different cloud services are beginning to promote to the masses "food as a service", "furniture as a service" and "toys as a service." Such intelligence does not occur in the start-ups themselves; he is taken from the cloud.
In the new business model, the intelligence of the product, its adaptation to the user, and suitability for the home and the environment will represent value. Take the stove, make it intelligent, and it will work as a program. All the "iron" will soon go to the cloud and will behave like a program.
The cloud provides scalability, cost reduction, quick launch, easy prototyping, and device independence. Your phone, laptop, tablet, and even a home theater - they will all be in the same ecosystem. Its scope and scale will make our environment more organic and adaptive, more like an ecosystem than a machine.
Ecosystem is a good word associated with biology. It is perfectly suited for adding physical things to the cloud, because it is associated with the whole habitat, and not with a separate device.
Mesh networks
It is usually assumed that the information is transferred from the device to the cloud and back, and the Big Data server farm is located in the center of the cloud. But in mesh structures, all interactions are carried out on the peer-to-peer principle, from device to device.
In the mesh version of the cloud, your phone communicates with another phone directly, and not through a cellular tower. Communication takes place at the boundaries of the cloud, where different devices can exchange data directly: the phone communicates with the satellite, the satellite speaks to the tractor, the tractor communicates with the humidity sensor. And all this is implemented in a distributed system.
This is a new kind of “Internet of things” (IoT), with which we still do not know how to handle. But I predict that by 2025, 50% of all cloud computing will be made on the border of the cloud, and not in its server farms.
Distribution of all
How to implement cloud protection in a distributed system, without using a firewall or passwords that need to be stored somewhere? Protection needs to be implemented at the border of the cloud. And how then to ensure identification without resorting to a centralized authentication and authorization service?
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency, in which security is guaranteed not by the bank, but by a distributed accounting technology in the entire chain of blocks of transactions (Blockchain). Blockchain is a very smart way to provide cloud protection, because with this technology, authorization tools and user identification are not stored in one place. Many Silicon Valley startups and Wall Street firms are generously investing in Blockchain technology because it is adaptive to distributed cloud services. Health care, education, analytics and forecasting can all be done differently in the cloud, but we still need to learn how to use these features.
Real global society
A single very large planetary cloud is a challenge for nations, countries, corporations and individual users, because we still lack experience in cloud technologies. After all, the cloud is developing so fast that it will soon surpass the total computing power. The future comes very quickly.
You are not late
To believe in such a future, you must free your mind from prejudice. One thing is certain: while we are at the very beginning. The first day of the creation of the Cloud. The greatest products of the next 20 years have not yet been invented. And in 20 years we will talk about what today does not even exist. That shows only one thing: you yourself have to participate in the development of the greatest creations. This means that you are not late.
From Kevin Kelly's keynote speech at the Huawei 2015 Cloud Congress, September 18, Shanghai, China
Kevin Kelly, Independent Expert, Founder of Wired Magazine
The cloud will soon become akin to the atmosphere - we will all live in it every day, without even feeling it. The only thing we can notice is its absence. The cloud becomes a universal environment, what history has not yet known.
Three driving forces
')
The cloud became possible due to the convergence of the three factors with the rapid pace of development - these are data, network bandwidth and intelligence.
1. Data
Data is the product that is produced in the largest quantity in the world. The growth of data is 66%, it is literally explosive growth. Data volumes are already measured in exabytes, zettabytes, yottabytes ... With such rates we will soon run out of names. We can hardly estimate the scale of the data. We simply cannot grasp the scale of how to produce and manage data at such a growth rate.
But this new megashkala gives tremendous opportunities: everything that can be measured will be measured; Anything that can be tracked will be tracked. As the size of the sensors decreases, we will track almost everything. Now, no matter what business you are in, this is a business with data. This is the impetus for the development of the cloud.
2. Network bandwidth
Network bandwidth is expanding rapidly, the network is becoming wireless, penetrating everywhere. According to my forecasts, in a couple of years the amount of wireless traffic will exceed the amount of wired network traffic. The car will be a new office with an even wider channel than at your home. Bandwidth is a secret ingredient, as it expands, the cloud grows as well.
3. Intellect
The third important factor is artificial intelligence (AI). Some of this intelligence is already embedded in computers and robots, but the most important AI will come to us from the cloud. Even robots will get their AI from the cloud.
Google, Baidu, Microsoft and Facebook are all endowed with giant cloud-based intelligence. But these are private clouds. Such companies do not sell intelligence as a service.
It will not take four years, as companies like Amazon will begin offering cloud-based AI services for applications such as data processing and pattern recognition. Already, artificial intelligence recognizes X-rays better than most doctors, interprets evidence better than many experts. Yes, and the pilots control the aircraft on the strength of eight minutes during the entire flight.
AI is provided as a cloud service. Now you can talk about intelligence as a service - connect and get as much “mind” as you need.
AI is needed for a cloud with its huge amounts of data to benefit. The more people use AI, the smarter it becomes. The smarter he gets, the more people will want to use it. Artificial intelligence is a driving force in the development of cloud technologies for the next 20 years.
X + AI = Service
Let's take X and figure out how to make a cloud service out of it. Our main goal is to take something that exists physically, add artificial intelligence and get something brilliant.
Already, about 9,000 different cloud services are beginning to promote to the masses "food as a service", "furniture as a service" and "toys as a service." Such intelligence does not occur in the start-ups themselves; he is taken from the cloud.
In the new business model, the intelligence of the product, its adaptation to the user, and suitability for the home and the environment will represent value. Take the stove, make it intelligent, and it will work as a program. All the "iron" will soon go to the cloud and will behave like a program.
The cloud provides scalability, cost reduction, quick launch, easy prototyping, and device independence. Your phone, laptop, tablet, and even a home theater - they will all be in the same ecosystem. Its scope and scale will make our environment more organic and adaptive, more like an ecosystem than a machine.
Ecosystem is a good word associated with biology. It is perfectly suited for adding physical things to the cloud, because it is associated with the whole habitat, and not with a separate device.
Mesh networks
It is usually assumed that the information is transferred from the device to the cloud and back, and the Big Data server farm is located in the center of the cloud. But in mesh structures, all interactions are carried out on the peer-to-peer principle, from device to device.
In the mesh version of the cloud, your phone communicates with another phone directly, and not through a cellular tower. Communication takes place at the boundaries of the cloud, where different devices can exchange data directly: the phone communicates with the satellite, the satellite speaks to the tractor, the tractor communicates with the humidity sensor. And all this is implemented in a distributed system.
This is a new kind of “Internet of things” (IoT), with which we still do not know how to handle. But I predict that by 2025, 50% of all cloud computing will be made on the border of the cloud, and not in its server farms.
Distribution of all
How to implement cloud protection in a distributed system, without using a firewall or passwords that need to be stored somewhere? Protection needs to be implemented at the border of the cloud. And how then to ensure identification without resorting to a centralized authentication and authorization service?
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency, in which security is guaranteed not by the bank, but by a distributed accounting technology in the entire chain of blocks of transactions (Blockchain). Blockchain is a very smart way to provide cloud protection, because with this technology, authorization tools and user identification are not stored in one place. Many Silicon Valley startups and Wall Street firms are generously investing in Blockchain technology because it is adaptive to distributed cloud services. Health care, education, analytics and forecasting can all be done differently in the cloud, but we still need to learn how to use these features.
Real global society
A single very large planetary cloud is a challenge for nations, countries, corporations and individual users, because we still lack experience in cloud technologies. After all, the cloud is developing so fast that it will soon surpass the total computing power. The future comes very quickly.
You are not late
To believe in such a future, you must free your mind from prejudice. One thing is certain: while we are at the very beginning. The first day of the creation of the Cloud. The greatest products of the next 20 years have not yet been invented. And in 20 years we will talk about what today does not even exist. That shows only one thing: you yourself have to participate in the development of the greatest creations. This means that you are not late.
From Kevin Kelly's keynote speech at the Huawei 2015 Cloud Congress, September 18, Shanghai, China
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/281825/
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