If oil is no more
I read a book called “If there is no more oil” from half a year ago. In Russia, the circulation was about 3 thousand copies. She came to me through third parties with the recommendation “after her you will look at everything differently”. In the book, accessible, but at the same time, supported by facts and calculations, the language tells us that life we are living in may end very soon. And to write about it now I was moved by the prices of oil, which are reported every day as reports from the front, and the fall of the markets of developed countries. I think it will be useful for HabraSoo community to know where everything is going.
We now live at the level of technology hitherto never humanity achievable, and continue to grow. The same with the population of the earth - never before, except in the 20th 21st century, the population of the earth did not amount to 6 billion figures. And the explosive growth occurred precisely in the 20-21 centuries, for some decades. This growth is connected with the fact that mankind has learned to extract and transform fossil hydrocarbons.
Everything went gradually. At first, 90% of all people stupidly tried to feed themselves and did not think about anything else. Then there was a tractor and oil, and now in the states the whole country is fed in abundance by 5% of farmers. People, after eating, it becomes more. Then the unnecessary 85 percent of the rural population moved to the cities. First, the workers, then came up with a conveyor. In terms of per worker production, it has been produced ten times more. Increased mobility of people. More people began to receive education. It became less workers.
')
All these mechanisms are driven by energy at every stage. A farmer without fossil hydrocarbons will produce 100 times less corn, which is barely enough to feed his family and sell something in the city. The steel plant will smelt 100 times less steel and produce 100 times fewer cars, for which the army of marketing specialists and designers will not need to be sold.
Everything would be nothing, but 95 percent of the energy that we now use is fossil, created by nature for millions of years. The book contains facts about explored and theoretical fields, taking into account the fact that all countries distort this information for various reasons. It turns out an unpleasant picture that oil is not infinite. Moreover, in the coming years, the peak of oil production will be passed, and further oil production will only decline.
The author as one of the main symptoms of the approaching peak of production leads the situation of a constantly rising barrel. Oil prices have always fluctuated, soared and fell. If prices rise continuously, it means that there is not enough oil. I want to note that the book was written in those times when the barrel cost another 30-40 dollars. Today's prices of 130-140 dollars per barrel only confirm the picture. And no weak dollar and excess of money can justify such a picture.
And there is no real alternative now. With current consumption, gas will last for 50 years. And if they also have to fill the cars for 20 years. Atomic energy depends on uranium, which is also not so much. The only hope, oddly enough, for coal, which is exactly enough for our age. But coal is the end of the planet, because when it is burned, the most CO2 is released.
What will happen? Nothing special, just slowly, we will sink into the 18th century. First, you will use the machine only on weekends. In Europe, for example, this is already observed. Then stop altogether. You can also forget about traveling. Any imported goods will be expensive because of transportation, and globalization and corporations will gradually come to an end. Hot water and light will be given for a couple of hours a day.
How can all this be avoided? Develop alternative energy now. The choice is good, and for each region there is something different. It is profitable to put windmills in Norway, to build solar farms in Morocco, to use geothermal energy in Kamchatka. It is assumed that there will be something like the energy of the Internet. You connect to the global network, and when you have an evening, you can buy solar energy from the Sahara, where it is day. And vice versa.
We'll have to reduce consumption and live within our means, which nature gives us. Drink beer is not from bottles and jars, the production of which leaves the energy, and go with your can to the barrel. Do not drive to work on a three-ton jeep, standing for two hours in a traffic jam and burning 10 liters of gasoline, but get into an ascetic half-bicycle with a mini-motor.
We all need to understand that if we do not develop alternative energy now, our life will change drastically, and it will take a very long time to reach the development lines of at least the beginning of the 21st century. And this is not some kind of apocalyptic scenario, this is what has already begun to occur - the global economy is facing an ever-expanding crisis, not explained by the problems of the US mortgage market and an excess of dollars.
We now live at the level of technology hitherto never humanity achievable, and continue to grow. The same with the population of the earth - never before, except in the 20th 21st century, the population of the earth did not amount to 6 billion figures. And the explosive growth occurred precisely in the 20-21 centuries, for some decades. This growth is connected with the fact that mankind has learned to extract and transform fossil hydrocarbons.
Everything went gradually. At first, 90% of all people stupidly tried to feed themselves and did not think about anything else. Then there was a tractor and oil, and now in the states the whole country is fed in abundance by 5% of farmers. People, after eating, it becomes more. Then the unnecessary 85 percent of the rural population moved to the cities. First, the workers, then came up with a conveyor. In terms of per worker production, it has been produced ten times more. Increased mobility of people. More people began to receive education. It became less workers.
')
All these mechanisms are driven by energy at every stage. A farmer without fossil hydrocarbons will produce 100 times less corn, which is barely enough to feed his family and sell something in the city. The steel plant will smelt 100 times less steel and produce 100 times fewer cars, for which the army of marketing specialists and designers will not need to be sold.
Everything would be nothing, but 95 percent of the energy that we now use is fossil, created by nature for millions of years. The book contains facts about explored and theoretical fields, taking into account the fact that all countries distort this information for various reasons. It turns out an unpleasant picture that oil is not infinite. Moreover, in the coming years, the peak of oil production will be passed, and further oil production will only decline.
The author as one of the main symptoms of the approaching peak of production leads the situation of a constantly rising barrel. Oil prices have always fluctuated, soared and fell. If prices rise continuously, it means that there is not enough oil. I want to note that the book was written in those times when the barrel cost another 30-40 dollars. Today's prices of 130-140 dollars per barrel only confirm the picture. And no weak dollar and excess of money can justify such a picture.
And there is no real alternative now. With current consumption, gas will last for 50 years. And if they also have to fill the cars for 20 years. Atomic energy depends on uranium, which is also not so much. The only hope, oddly enough, for coal, which is exactly enough for our age. But coal is the end of the planet, because when it is burned, the most CO2 is released.
What will happen? Nothing special, just slowly, we will sink into the 18th century. First, you will use the machine only on weekends. In Europe, for example, this is already observed. Then stop altogether. You can also forget about traveling. Any imported goods will be expensive because of transportation, and globalization and corporations will gradually come to an end. Hot water and light will be given for a couple of hours a day.
How can all this be avoided? Develop alternative energy now. The choice is good, and for each region there is something different. It is profitable to put windmills in Norway, to build solar farms in Morocco, to use geothermal energy in Kamchatka. It is assumed that there will be something like the energy of the Internet. You connect to the global network, and when you have an evening, you can buy solar energy from the Sahara, where it is day. And vice versa.
We'll have to reduce consumption and live within our means, which nature gives us. Drink beer is not from bottles and jars, the production of which leaves the energy, and go with your can to the barrel. Do not drive to work on a three-ton jeep, standing for two hours in a traffic jam and burning 10 liters of gasoline, but get into an ascetic half-bicycle with a mini-motor.
We all need to understand that if we do not develop alternative energy now, our life will change drastically, and it will take a very long time to reach the development lines of at least the beginning of the 21st century. And this is not some kind of apocalyptic scenario, this is what has already begun to occur - the global economy is facing an ever-expanding crisis, not explained by the problems of the US mortgage market and an excess of dollars.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/27854/
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