By the year 2060, programmers will not be needed
It is good to be a programmer - the industry is flourishing and developing, the demand for coders is increasing, wages are growing. But how long will it last?
You can draw unexpected parallels between modern programmers and telegraph operators of the 19th century. By today's standards, operators were poorly technically savvy - all their work consisted in receiving and forwarding messages transmitted by wire with Morse code. The task is monotonous and requiring high concentration. Today's programming requires a person to have a sufficiently wide knowledge and understanding of the work of complex systems, as well as the ability to quickly learn and master the ever increasing number of different frameworks.
However, in the middle of the 19th century, telegraph operators were well paid, respected and considered technically rather savvy. They moved easily from place to place, and experienced operators flew to major cities in search of good work. As more and more wires were laid, the demand for operators grew rapidly. Standards were developed to speed up the transfer of messages, and operators had to adapt, memorize increasingly complex and efficient systems of abbreviations and protocols. At the beginning of his career, Thomas Edison worked as a telegraph operator, before he followed his true vocation and began buying up patents, stealing ideas from Nikola Tesla and building an empire. It is not surprising that, as in the case of programming, there was a big difference in pay between men and women.
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But by the 20th century, a telephone was invented that did not require human participation to convert the code into natural language. By the 1920s, only a small part of a large number of operators remained, compared with the 1890s.
Fast forward a hundred years to come - and we will find ourselves in a similar situation, only with programmers. Of course, this profession requires more skills and intellectual capabilities than the telegraph operator. But programmers today occupy a niche that is functionally similar to operators. The explosive spread of software is similar to the proliferation of early 19th century communications. The demand for operators grew in proportion to the growth of networks, and the demand for programmers grows in proportion to the growth of software. Previously, all telegrams needed to be translated from Morse code into the human language, and today all code must be written by man.
Programs become more efficient, frameworks appear that require writing less code, and more advanced languages, compilers, and interpreters make the programmer's life easier compared to the 1980s and 1990s. But still the process of writing programs remains a lesson for a person.
But all this will change.
In today's version of the profession already crush from two sides. First, site creation tools like Weebly allow everyone to create a site without having to write code. Base level programming is becoming more accessible, so the gap between generating ideas and programming them gradually disappears.
Secondly, programs are becoming increasingly useful in helping to create new programs. And although we are still far from automatic programs that other programs will be able to write themselves, replacing the programmer with them, we are moving towards this. And we do not even need a real AI to greatly reduce the role of the programmer. Just the role of programs in the creation of new programs will gradually increase. By analogy, imagine semi-automatic driving a car as the first step on the road to roaming vehicles.
And although in the future there will still be a need for specialized programmers and other people familiar with computers, it seems inevitable that programming will gradually disappear as a profession approaching the 22nd century.
But if you are a programmer (like me), do not despair. Critical thinking and technical skills will still be useful to us in the future for other tasks. Well, if not - just in case, postpone part of the earnings.
Telegraph operators of the 21st century
You can draw unexpected parallels between modern programmers and telegraph operators of the 19th century. By today's standards, operators were poorly technically savvy - all their work consisted in receiving and forwarding messages transmitted by wire with Morse code. The task is monotonous and requiring high concentration. Today's programming requires a person to have a sufficiently wide knowledge and understanding of the work of complex systems, as well as the ability to quickly learn and master the ever increasing number of different frameworks.
However, in the middle of the 19th century, telegraph operators were well paid, respected and considered technically rather savvy. They moved easily from place to place, and experienced operators flew to major cities in search of good work. As more and more wires were laid, the demand for operators grew rapidly. Standards were developed to speed up the transfer of messages, and operators had to adapt, memorize increasingly complex and efficient systems of abbreviations and protocols. At the beginning of his career, Thomas Edison worked as a telegraph operator, before he followed his true vocation and began buying up patents, stealing ideas from Nikola Tesla and building an empire. It is not surprising that, as in the case of programming, there was a big difference in pay between men and women.
')
But by the 20th century, a telephone was invented that did not require human participation to convert the code into natural language. By the 1920s, only a small part of a large number of operators remained, compared with the 1890s.
Sunset programming as a profession
Fast forward a hundred years to come - and we will find ourselves in a similar situation, only with programmers. Of course, this profession requires more skills and intellectual capabilities than the telegraph operator. But programmers today occupy a niche that is functionally similar to operators. The explosive spread of software is similar to the proliferation of early 19th century communications. The demand for operators grew in proportion to the growth of networks, and the demand for programmers grows in proportion to the growth of software. Previously, all telegrams needed to be translated from Morse code into the human language, and today all code must be written by man.
Programs become more efficient, frameworks appear that require writing less code, and more advanced languages, compilers, and interpreters make the programmer's life easier compared to the 1980s and 1990s. But still the process of writing programs remains a lesson for a person.
But all this will change.
In today's version of the profession already crush from two sides. First, site creation tools like Weebly allow everyone to create a site without having to write code. Base level programming is becoming more accessible, so the gap between generating ideas and programming them gradually disappears.
Secondly, programs are becoming increasingly useful in helping to create new programs. And although we are still far from automatic programs that other programs will be able to write themselves, replacing the programmer with them, we are moving towards this. And we do not even need a real AI to greatly reduce the role of the programmer. Just the role of programs in the creation of new programs will gradually increase. By analogy, imagine semi-automatic driving a car as the first step on the road to roaming vehicles.
And although in the future there will still be a need for specialized programmers and other people familiar with computers, it seems inevitable that programming will gradually disappear as a profession approaching the 22nd century.
But if you are a programmer (like me), do not despair. Critical thinking and technical skills will still be useful to us in the future for other tasks. Well, if not - just in case, postpone part of the earnings.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/274987/
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