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From AI and Data Science to Cryptography: Microsoft Researchers Give 16 Predictions for 2016

Last month, Microsoft released the book “ Future Visions ” - an anthology of small stories written by some modern science fiction writers, based on conversations with Microsoft researchers and visits to their laboratories. The electronic version of the book is available for free on Amazon and other sites.



Today we are pleased to offer you an anthology of another kind. This is a collection of predictions from 16 leaders and thinkers within our technological and research organization.
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After a year since we entered the era called Peter Lee, corporate vice president of Microsoft Research NExT, the new Golden Age of technological advantages, we decided that it would be useful to get an understanding of not only that waits next year, but also on the horizon 10 years.

Microsoft Research employs more than 1,000 scientists and engineers who work in a wide range of disciplines in collaboration with many laboratories around the world , so this list cannot be exhaustive, but we hope that you can get important information from it.

The year 2016 is a kind of reporting point for the Microsoft research division. MSR will celebrate its 25th anniversary since Nathan Myhrvold was founded in 1991, which, in its 21-page document sent to Bill Gates, argued that Microsoft "needs to invest in the future, doing more research and technology."

These investments have yielded significant results, both for Microsoft and for industry and society. Perhaps, right now, when Rafael Reif (Rafael Reif), president of MIT, says that "we leave too much innovative ketchup in a bottle," the company's investment in research is more important than ever before.

Chris Bishop



Managing Director, Microsoft Research, Cambridge, UK
Microsoft Distinguished Scholar

What technologies should we expect from a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


In 2016, we will see the emergence of new silicon architectures set up for intensive use of machine learning tasks, which provide a significant performance boost compared to the GPU.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological achievement in Europe and what impact will this have on personal experience with computers?


By 2026, we will have a ubiquitous translation at a human level of quality between all European languages, so this will remove the language barrier in Europe.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


We will see new interesting scenarios for using camera depth on mobile phones.

Doug burger



Director, Hardware, Devices, and Experiences, Microsoft Research NExT
@dcburger

What technologies should we expect from a breakthrough or a significant contribution in the computer environment in 2016?


The key technological breakthrough can be the successful and large-scale inclusion of specialized cloud computing accelerators, which will provide tremendous advantages in big data processing, bioinformatics, high-performance computing, and many other important verticals.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological achievement and what impact will it have on personal experience of interaction with computers?


The big change can be a partial shift from von Neumann computer systems to systems focused on intensive computing, which should lead to big cost savings and reduced delays in data transfer. Such a shift will make a big breakthrough in deep personalization, for example, intelligent computer assistants who know you well and can serve you well, greatly increasing productivity at work or saving life through highly personalized medicine.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Tunable computing (for example, FPGA ) will become an important focus in data centers and will be considered on a par with other computing accelerators.

Bill buxton



Lead Researcher, Microsoft Research
@wasbuxton

What technologies should we expect from a breakthrough or a significant contribution to man-machine interactions in 2016?


57 years after the appearance of the first light pen, 53 years after the first graphic tablet with a stylus, 27 years after the appearance of the first computer with a stylus and 14 years after the launch of the Tablet PC at Microsoft, drawing, adding annotations and taking notes with the pen finally will be widely supported and take their place in the complex mosaic of how we interact with digital devices.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological achievement in human-machine interactions and what impact will this have on personal experience with computers?


Based on the history and my inner skepticism, I would just add 10 years to all the time stamps and reiterate my prediction for 2016. However, my inner optimist believes that over the next 10 years there will be three related changes: things will just work, they will work together seamlessly and transparently, and if so, complexity will significantly decrease and the value and level of freedom will increase, allowing people to concentrate on what is really important: the realization of the full human potential.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


There will be a huge number of digital trinkets and handicrafts, a new phenomenon of old age planning will begin to manifest itself and the focus of the industry and users will shift from technology, as such, to improving human experience, creating value and unlocking potential.

Lili cheng



Honored Engineer and General Manager, Microsoft Research NExT
@lilich

What technologies should we expect from a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


Our online conversations will increasingly involve assistants helping us to laugh and be more productive in time. This will lead to a question and make you think seriously about how we treat computers, phones, our memory and our relationships.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological achievement and what impact will it have on personal experience of interaction with computers?


Every child going to school will learn to write code and create the solutions that we use every day. This means that we can better design and manage how computers affect our lives.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


For an increasing number of children, the first job will be in a virtual rather than physical space. Over time, this will force us to rethink our view of the work and ways of designing physical cities, neighborhoods and local communities.

Kate crawford



Lead Researcher, Microsoft Research
@katecrawford

What technologies should we expect from a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


The key breakthrough should be that each data processing training program should include a data ethics module dedicated to a deeper understanding of the impact on humanity of huge large-scale data collections and experiments (and, ideally, leading to an increase in honesty and protection from various forms of discrimination based on data).

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological breakthrough in data science, and what impact will this have on personal experience with computers?


AI agents like XiaoIce will seem so real and play such an important and trusted role in our lives that we will require them to have the same ethical and legal restrictions that we have with doctors, lawyers and therapists.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


We will begin to embed the necessary mechanisms to protect processes within big data processing systems that affect health, space management, and employment decisions.

Li deng



Partner Research Manager, Microsoft Research NExT

What technologies of deep learning should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


The rapid development of the processing of natural languages ​​based on deep learning methods will continue, a qualitative leap in machine translation efficiency can be achieved through sequence study techniques with a focus of attention used in deep learning.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological advancement in deep learning and what impact will this have on personal experience with computers?


Deep learning will develop or even surpass the human level in AI in several important areas related to speech and vision, and possibly in some areas of cognitive functions. Artificial intelligence technologies will be widely used by ordinary people in their daily lives.

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Deep learning is beginning to penetrate business solutions, including predictive analytics, which will lead to an increase in interest in deep learning technologies beyond the already existing successful areas of speech processing, images and natural language.

Jasmin fisher



Senior Researcher, Microsoft Research Cambridge, UK

What technologies in the field of health should we expect to make a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


One of the key changes in medicine and maintaining health in 2016 is to be expected in the area of ​​using new interdisciplinary technologies designed to improve and prolong the lives of patients with complex diseases.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be a key technological achievement in computed biology and what impact will this have on personal experience with computers?


Ten years from now, cancer will become a solved problem thanks to interdisciplinary breakthrough approaches, which allow researchers and doctors to calculate the controlling mechanisms of cancer, as well as understand, define, diagnose and treat patients at an individual level. I believe that computed biology will play a key role in solving this huge task.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Cloud technologies will begin to realize their true potential in changing and improving the lives of patients.

Hsiao-wuen hon



Corporate Vice President, Microsoft Research Asia and Microsoft's Asia-Pacific R & D Group

What technologies should we expect from a breakthrough or a significant contribution in China in 2016?


Significant growth in the use of AI with optional human participation for personal assistance services, allowing to expand the use of messaging platforms, reduce the cost of labor and improve the electronic availability of services and services.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be a key technological achievement in China and what impact will this have on personal experience of interacting with computers for Chinese people?


The mixture of atoms and bits, as predicted by HoloLens , will become natural, so that people can use advanced digital technologies in learning, shopping, traveling and interacting with people and things.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Distributing video on the Internet will bypass the TV broadcast. In China, more people will watch the Olympics through the web than through TV. Video analysis technologies, such as those offered at Project Oxford , will accelerate the development of intelligent video processing in the cloud.

Eric Horvitz



Technical Board Member and Managing Director, Microsoft Research Redmond Lab
@erichorvitz

What technologies in the field of AI should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


A visible breakthrough in computational intelligence will be conducting a flexible, multi-step conversational dialogue with a machine that will be noticeably more natural and competent than the verbal interaction that we have with computers and phones today.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological achievement in AI and what impact will it have on personal experience of interaction with computers?


Although the capabilities of AI will make a significant contribution in areas such as transport, health care and self-employment, I believe that the most significant use of AI will be found in the sciences, where smart systems will radically change scientific research and make significant breakthroughs in areas such as energy, biology and medicine.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Personal assistants will become more useful by understanding such important things in people's lives as their work tasks and the promises they give to other people.

Lucas Joppa



Preservation Researcher, Microsoft Research
@lucasjoppa

What technologies in conservation science should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


Cheap long-distance sensors that consume little energy will make exponential growth in environmental monitoring possible and set the basis for parallel access to information about the planet.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological achievement in conservation science and what impact will this have on personal experience with computers?


By 2026, computing technologies will become ubiquitous in natural environments, providing a digital slice of the state of nature, which will constantly monitor the pulse of life on the planet.

How do you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ... </ h4?
The world is aware of the potential of technology in preventing the 6th mass extermination and changing the way we observe, model and manage life on earth.

Brian lamacchia



Director, Security & Cryptography, Microsoft Research

What technologies in cryptography should we expect to make a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


A key technological breakthrough in cryptography in 2016 will be the demonstration of a fully encrypted TLS connection using quantum-resistant public key algorithms for both key exchanges (for confidentiality) and digital signatures (for authentication). The imminent emergence of reasonable-sized quantum computers in the next 15 years will make it necessary to migrate all existing cryptosystems on public keys to new quantum-resistant algorithms and quantum-stable TLS (used in all https connections) is the first step.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological advancement in cryptography and what impact will it have on personal experience of interacting with computers?


I hope that by 2026 we will implement new quantum-resistant public-key cryptosystems in all of our security punctures we use and we will confidently follow the path of closing a few quantum-vulnerable systems. Ideally, if we do everything right, the migration will make all our communications protected against attacks using quantum computers, although otherwise it will not play a role in relation to everyday experience of interacting with computers.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Continuing innovation in quantum computing will lead to increased attention to the threats that they carry for existing public-key cryptosystems - this is the cryptography that underlies e-commerce and secure communications on the Internet. The security community will begin planning to migrate to new “quantum-stable” systems with public keys for which quantum computers will not provide computational advantages.

Preston McAfee



Chief Economist, Microsoft

What technologies in the economy should we expect to make a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


Economists are trying to understand why the current recovery [of the economy] does not lead to a noticeable increase in productivity compared with previous periods; perhaps, low productivity is a new norm. I think this riddle will be solved in 2016, and the answer may have important implications for government policies aimed at accelerating growth. Of course, it may turn out that the problem is in measurement errors and we are growing normally.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key breakthrough in the economy?


In the next ten years, the biggest breakthrough in the economy will occur in the application of market design techniques, which will improve market efficiency through the use of a combination of game theory, economics and algorithm design. We have already seen their successful use in search auctions, frequency auctions, kidney exchanges, and school assignments.

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Silicon Valley recognizes that the value of Uber in his store, not data, but perhaps this is too optimistic. The big data bubble will exist for a long time.

Sriram rajamani



Assistant Managing Director, Microsoft Research India

From which security technologies should we expect a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


We will see the emergence of a new generation of system solutions that guarantee security even if the operating system or other infrastructure becomes compromised by hackers.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be a key technological achievement in security and what impact will it have on personal experience of interacting with computers?


The game of cat and mouse between hackers and system manufacturers will continue. Rates will rise high enough so that security and privacy become the hallmark of selling a cloud platform or device. This will lead to breakthrough solutions across all layers of the system stack, including (1) the application level in terms of machine learning techniques that preserve privacy and purity, (2) a system architecture that ensures the isolation of user data and determines intrusion and compromised use by machine learning, and (3) new hardware capabilities and new cryptography, making such system architectures possible.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


A new generation of security solutions built on trusted hardware (such as the Intel SGX and hardware solutions with similar capabilities from other manufacturers) will begin to penetrate the market, and I’m our notions of security.

Krysta svore



Senior Researcher, Microsoft Research NExT
@krystasvore

What technologies in quantum computing should we expect to make a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


Confirming and demonstrating topological qubit will be a key breakthrough in quantum computing next year.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological advancement in quantum computing and what impact will this have on personal experience with computers?


In 2026, it seems to me that we can connect to a quantum computer through the cloud to find solutions to problems that we cannot solve with modern classical computers, in particular, the simulation of physical systems for chemistry and materials science. Imagine that we can more efficiently produce artificial fertilizers or remove carbon waste from the air.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


We will see the development and development of new, suitable for the actual use of quantum algorithms programmed in systems like LIQUi |> (Language-Integrated Quantum Operations). More people will become quantum mechanics!

Chandu thekkath



Managing Director, Microsoft Research India

What technologies should we expect from a breakthrough or a significant contribution in India in 2016?


Cheap access to technologies like free TV frequencies and affordable mobile devices will make the Internet more common in India.

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological achievement in India and what impact will this have on personal experience with computers?


Every resident of India will have a mobile device and an adequate network channel that will make full use of the mobility and access to the technologies that are difficult for us to even imagine today.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Connections in rural areas begin to penetrate into India and a large part of the population connects to the network.

Jeannette Wing



Corporate Vice President, Microsoft Research

What technologies should we expect from a breakthrough or a significant contribution in 2016?


Two answers:
Scientific breakthrough : > László Babai will publish his proof that the problem of graph isomorphism can be reduced from near-exponential to almost poly-nominal time, which will enliven the research in algorithms and the theory of complexity of problems.

Breakthrough information technology : we will see a greater number of sensors and devices that monitor the metabolism, which will allow people to monitor their health and well-being (and not just the heart rate).

Considering the 10-year horizon until 2026, what will be the key technological achievement and what impact will it have on personal experience of interaction with computers?


We can program the living cell.

As you complete the following sentence: 2016 will be the year in which ...


Presidential candidates (USA) will discuss the role of secure communications in conflicts between the needs of the state to protect national security and the needs of companies to protect the privacy of data and the identity of people.

Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/274269/


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