What the JavaScript market will look like in 2016

Today, a curious article “To become a programming guru in 2016 is enough to learn Javascript and move to Utah” on the Mashable website about the labor market for software developers. This material forms a very perverse picture of reality, and therefore let us understand together.

Brief background. I am a software developer and over the past several years I have repeatedly conducted interviews with people who want to join the ranks of my colleagues. In addition, I taught JavaScript developers how to get a great job. I have a decent experience in creating and consulting promising development teams and companies from the Fortune 500 list.
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I also often collaborate with recruitment agencies, so I know firsthand what the most high-tech companies in the world want. Guided by my own experience and what my students are telling, I can state with confidence that I understand the structure of the JavaScript labor market both externally and internally.

You need to learn JavaScript

No, the Mashable article did not disprove my knowledge at all. "Master JavaScript" - worthy advice. In the list of requirements for candidates for the position of software developers, more than 1/3 of vacancies imply some knowledge of JavaScript. Currently, JavaScript is the most popular programming language with a well-developed ecosystem of OSS modules, which, unlike other existing alternatives, can truly be called universal: “write once, use everywhere” is an idea that Java creators dreamed of. And thanks to JavaScript, it became a reality.

Universal JavaScript is an application that runs on servers, a web platform, and even native devices (see React Native), and the application logic (and not just the library) remains unchanged for all target platforms in the process of using. If you are writing applications in another programming language, I hasten to note that this is a waste of time and money.

Number of modules


Increase npm - Standard OSS JavaScript Package Storage

It's not Utah - the demand for software is high everywhere

I know that the example was chosen to attract the attention of readers. And, yes, the labor market for Utah software developers is indeed developing rapidly, but it’s important to understand the reason for this growth. Statewide, Utah is a fairly small market, reaching around 2,000–3,000 software developer jobs. This, to put it mildly, is not 12000-20000 in New York and is not a constant demand for 10,000-15,000 specialists of this profile in San Francisco. And we have given examples of not the only cities, having read the sentences of which, involuntarily, think about the futility of the work of a programmer in Salt Lake City.

And now more about the modern job market JavaScript, because I already have the necessary data (for December 2015):

• Washington DC 5300
• Oakland, CA, 4700
• San Jose, CA 4000
• Boston, MA, 3000
• Los Angeles, CA, 2000

In Salt Lake City, there are usually about 500 open positions for JavaScript developers. The state of Utah in general accounts for about 800 such proposals. If you want to be a programmer, I don’t think that you should listen to the advice “move to Utah”.

Want to become a programmer?
Move, literally, anywhere.

Moreover, it is not at all necessary to pack our bags, even if the situation in the local labor market is worse than ever. In different regions of the United States, remote JavaScript specialists are constantly required, there are similar vacancies in almost all countries of the world, and therefore freelance developers are always a huge choice. If you know a lot about programming, be sure to think about the possibility of remote employment. Yes, in this case it is a little more difficult to find a worthwhile offer and the competition is very high, but it is definitely worth a try.

Lack of qualified personnel is a real problem. And serious.

It is impossible to eliminate the shortage of talented specialists simply by filling the market with new ones.

In the Mashable article, there was a wording, after reading which you might think that so many people study programmers, and as a result, incredibly high competition arises between them. And here is the cruel truth:

Software development has always been and remains a very difficult specialization that requires a variety of skills, including sociability, willingness to cooperate and knowledge of technical documentation. Not for nothing is the salary of programmers, as a rule, 2 times higher than the average: and all is not so simple.

• You must have a clear interest in this field of activity and sufficient motivation;
• You must be able to learn quickly and with pleasure (technology is changing rapidly);
• You must be very sociable and willing to cooperate;
• You should be able to concentrate on the details (it is important at the stage of launching and debugging software) and the picture as a whole (in the process of development);
• You must have practical knowledge of mathematics, logic, as well as a tendency to abstract thinking;
• You must be prepared and have the opportunity to work overtime to improve skills.

If this is about you, I think you can handle it. If not, learning the basics of programming can still be beneficial, but in this case you should still choose another profession. It is completely logical that one specialty cannot ideally suit everyone. And that's fine.

If you can't get a job, you may need to upgrade individual skills or practice creating OSS samples to prove that you are suitable for a particular job.

If you can not find a job, do not rush to blame the situation on the labor market.

I’ll say from experience that companies didn’t “choose carefully” (well, unless you compare current vacancies with JavaScript proposals for 2008. JavaScript has recently become the leading application programming language).

In fact, companies have simply found effective mechanisms for determining the actual level of possession of the necessary skills when it comes to a particular candidate.

Yes, the problem of shortage of qualified personnel is not solved due to the appearance on the labor market of a huge number of beginners (and it took a long time to understand this). The development of software development, unfortunately, is still noticeably ahead of the increase in the number of good specialists. In other words, if we speak on behalf of employers, there are more vacancies than suitable candidates.

The situation is so complex that often, not finding the necessary personnel in the most promising cities, it is necessary to expand the geography of the search up to the international level. If we are talking about the most high-tech companies in the world, the number of foreign citizens employed in relevant start-ups, on average, reaches 29%. In Silicon Valley - 45%.

It costs more than tens of thousands of dollars, and it often takes more than one month to hire people from other countries on an H1-B visa. Do you think it would be worth the trouble if the qualifications of local specialists met the requirements of employers?

If the representatives of the whole industry, the government and the President of the United States note that we are faced with a shortage of qualified software developers, this sounds much more convincing than the arguments from an article in some unfortunate blog with a claim to sensation.

Why is it hard to find a job

There are many articles in the network in which the problem of shortage of qualified personnel is not considered, because their authors, you see, have heard that finding a job in a technical specialty is difficult. And now about the real state of things: there are a number of other reasons why your roommate cannot get a job. Here are the most common ones:

1. Companies are usually not interested in outstanding knowledge of popular, but completely useless methods, such as interactive electronic boards or situational tasks (if you focus on these tools, drop before it is too late. They do not work and, among other things, cost a lot). With this approach, many potential specialists are eliminated. We have to constantly improve our search principles in order to find truly outstanding candidates.
2. The candidate is simply not good enough. Mastering JavaScript is not easy. 99 out of 100 developers I interviewed could not answer the simplest questions about the two pillars of JavaScript: prototype and functional programming. Moreover, both programming styles are widely used in all serious JS applications that I have ever encountered. Practical knowledge of these aspects is vital to every JavaScript developer.
3. Vacancies suggesting the possibility of prior training are rarely offered. Although in some cases, when trying to find outstanding developers, companies have to agree and for the worse - hire junior developers and establish training in production - where, in fact, specialists get the most valuable experience.

Why are companies in no hurry to hire junior developers who can be trained on the spot? If there are no suitable conditions at the enterprise, the younger developers make their first feasible contribution to the development of the common cause only about a year later. Unfortunately, specialists of this class do not often linger in one place for more than a year. That is why it is beneficial for companies to offer employment to junior developers only if their team really knows a lot about the selection of future star personnel and their training, and is also confident in the loyalty of trained employees.

Good news: the best candidates get into teams where they have to constantly learn. Promising development teams instill a culture of learning, hire outstanding mentors and accept those in their ranks who are ready to improve their skills. Such teams not only achieve the best results, but also do not face the problem of staff turnover. Under these conditions, newcomers quickly become trainers, obviously feel motivated and enjoy working, and therefore remain in the company for a long time.

If you are a weak candidate, you will encounter certain difficulties in any market, but if you have a good portfolio and understand what you are doing, remember:

This is the market of applicants for the position of software developers and in the near future it will not change.

Proof of

• Prospects for the growth of the labor market of software developers for 2012–2022: 22% - almost twice as high as the average for all categories of specialties.
• In the United States, software developers rank second in the list of the fastest growing professional fields. Only the official nursing labor market increases faster .
• Currently, the demand for software developers is in the hundreds of thousands of vacancies and it is expected that by 2020 this market will exceed one million vacancies.

Even all these convincing facts suggest a very narrow vision of the prospects for the profession of a programmer. Let's take a step back and look at the big picture.

Future

I would like to share with you a few slides from the presentation about the meaning of programming, which explains why it is still important to train more specialists in this profile.

Software absorbs the world
The Internet subdues software
And JavaScript rules the Internet.

In 2000, the profession of the driver was the most common in almost all states:


In 2000, the driver’s labor market dominated other professions

Programmers do not even hit the card. By 2014, in 4 states, the position of software developer was the most common:


By 2014, software developers came to the fore in 4 states

By 2045, a person driving a car will look like a horse in a harness.


Mercedes F 015 - Ars Electronica (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

For example, Uber already puts a stick in the wheels of the global taxi service industry, and by 2020 the company intends to buy 500 thousand unmanned vehicles.

By 2035, 45% of modern occupations will disappear, but in schools they are not taught what is needed for future employment.


4/5 US schools do not teach programming

Changes are happening faster

Under the influence of programming, virtually all areas of industry are undergoing incredible transformations, if they do not lose their relevance at all. And, despite the statements about the insolvency of Moore's law - someone is in a hurry to say that he has outlived himself (I have repeatedly encountered such situations personally) - the pace of technological change is growing exponentially.

Almost under each article you can find a comment referring to the fact that Moore's law is the last century, and at the same time for any of them I can give examples of 3 technologies that can bring this decree back to life. Here, for example, the next heading:

“Google: Our quantum computer is 100 million times faster than a regular system.”

We are entering an era of technological boom, where it will be obvious for us and for our children that technology is progressing faster than a person has time to adapt to it. Moreover, nothing indicates a possible reduction in such a rapid pace. And it is unlikely that we or our children will live to such times.

Here is a small list of technologies that contribute to the true revolution and are ready to fill up the job bank with thousands of requests as early as 2016:

• AI;
• Drones;
• The virtual reality;
• Augmented Reality;
• 3D printing and production robotization;
• Mobile payments;
• Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin and Blockchain.

And now let's analyze the facts:

Computers are a new version of paper and ink, and programming is an alternative to literacy.

Saying that we can prepare "too many" programmers is absurd. The more programmers, the more companies specializing in software development, and, therefore, they will always need new staff.

If you reduce the entire text of the article to one conclusion, which is worth paying attention to, let it sound like this:

Training in software development is an effective cycle that cannot be exhausted by increasing the number of programmers. There will just be more Facebook, Google, and Tesla who want to hire them.

So what are you waiting for?

Start learning javascript right now.

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