A little about the development of technology and the Internet
Sometimes it is useful to look at the history of the development of technologies in order to rethink some approaches to their own development. Today we decided to look at what is waiting for the Internet in terms of development in the near future.
/ photo by Steve Jurvetson CC
Maciej Cegłowski wrote a whole story about all this, which he discovered by comparing airplanes. As a child, he happened to see the contrast between the IL-62 and the Boeing 747 - he was so shocked by the author that he still describes this story very vividly.
')
For many, the 747th is a work of engineering and a synonym for convenience. It has everything we are used to: from folding seats to the shelves above them. The history of this aircraft is rich in vivid episodes. It even required a special factory, tens of thousands of drawings, and millions of man-hours of work.
An interesting fact is that the priority project of the company at that time was not at all the 747th, but the supersonic 2707th . The company was convinced that it was the future of air travel (projected speed of up to 2900 km / h), and the Soviet engineers did not lag behind and designed the Concord.
The author conducts this analogy for a reason. The moral is that 50 years ago, people saw a completely different future and were waiting for something completely different from the beginning of the 2000s. For example, a real opportunity to go to the moon or even make an interplanetary journey. Expectations are reality.
It turns out that today the most perfect passenger aircraft is the Boeing 787. The configuration of the airliner has not changed in 60 years. But why did such a high speed of technology development not allow them to gain a foothold in the philistine life and stay on the market?
The answer is simple - economic feasibility - the cost of development and operation - government subsidies, which are not endless. It turned out that few people need to fly across the ocean in three hours, instead of six.
/ photo Hernán Piñera CC
With the Internet, the story is about the same. We have great prospects: the growth of computing power and the development of VR. But there are both economic and social barriers.
Today, our gadgets without any problems are doing everything that is necessary - they allow you to take pictures, make calls and go online. Yes, you just need to gradually improve the displays, cameras, batteries and the quality of the Internet connection. But in general, most of us do not need home-made supercomputers.
The author notes that exponential growth has instilled in us terrible habits - such as the neglect of the past and history. Neglect of the past also leads to ignoring the realities of our industry, which is completely built on the inheritance of technology. From OS to Internet protocols, from monitors to email.
It turns out that over the years we have complained that browsers are not able to properly display page layouts and java-scripts. As soon as everything returned to normal, we began to rewrite the libraries, which changed the browsers from the inside, making them slower.
As a result, in order to understand the optimal scenario, you need to understand what the Network is. Someone thinks that we need to combine knowledge, people and seals. Others want to fix the world with software. Still others seek to become immortal beings of pure energy.
These three visions lead to three radically different worlds. The first group wants to unite the world. The second group wants to swallow the world. The third group wants to end the world. These three points of view are incompatible.
Today, we get hundreds of thousands of companies that do not produce anything and with amazing losses are estimated at billions of dollars. At the same time, millions of people work in the rice fields, textile factories and live in terrible poverty.
What if instead of thinking about changing the world with the technologies of tomorrow, we use the technologies we have today and let the world change us?
/ photo by Steve Jurvetson CCMaciej Cegłowski wrote a whole story about all this, which he discovered by comparing airplanes. As a child, he happened to see the contrast between the IL-62 and the Boeing 747 - he was so shocked by the author that he still describes this story very vividly.
')
For many, the 747th is a work of engineering and a synonym for convenience. It has everything we are used to: from folding seats to the shelves above them. The history of this aircraft is rich in vivid episodes. It even required a special factory, tens of thousands of drawings, and millions of man-hours of work.
An interesting fact is that the priority project of the company at that time was not at all the 747th, but the supersonic 2707th . The company was convinced that it was the future of air travel (projected speed of up to 2900 km / h), and the Soviet engineers did not lag behind and designed the Concord.
The author conducts this analogy for a reason. The moral is that 50 years ago, people saw a completely different future and were waiting for something completely different from the beginning of the 2000s. For example, a real opportunity to go to the moon or even make an interplanetary journey. Expectations are reality.
It turns out that today the most perfect passenger aircraft is the Boeing 787. The configuration of the airliner has not changed in 60 years. But why did such a high speed of technology development not allow them to gain a foothold in the philistine life and stay on the market?
The answer is simple - economic feasibility - the cost of development and operation - government subsidies, which are not endless. It turned out that few people need to fly across the ocean in three hours, instead of six.
/ photo Hernán Piñera CC
With the Internet, the story is about the same. We have great prospects: the growth of computing power and the development of VR. But there are both economic and social barriers.
Today, our gadgets without any problems are doing everything that is necessary - they allow you to take pictures, make calls and go online. Yes, you just need to gradually improve the displays, cameras, batteries and the quality of the Internet connection. But in general, most of us do not need home-made supercomputers.
The author notes that exponential growth has instilled in us terrible habits - such as the neglect of the past and history. Neglect of the past also leads to ignoring the realities of our industry, which is completely built on the inheritance of technology. From OS to Internet protocols, from monitors to email.
It turns out that over the years we have complained that browsers are not able to properly display page layouts and java-scripts. As soon as everything returned to normal, we began to rewrite the libraries, which changed the browsers from the inside, making them slower.
As a result, in order to understand the optimal scenario, you need to understand what the Network is. Someone thinks that we need to combine knowledge, people and seals. Others want to fix the world with software. Still others seek to become immortal beings of pure energy.
These three visions lead to three radically different worlds. The first group wants to unite the world. The second group wants to swallow the world. The third group wants to end the world. These three points of view are incompatible.
Today, we get hundreds of thousands of companies that do not produce anything and with amazing losses are estimated at billions of dollars. At the same time, millions of people work in the rice fields, textile factories and live in terrible poverty.
What if instead of thinking about changing the world with the technologies of tomorrow, we use the technologies we have today and let the world change us?
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/268103/
All Articles