Bolts in tea, or a webinar on probability theory in practice
In the article " Application of the Theory of Probability in IT " the author (teacher of probability theory at the university) writes:
This is a really important issue. The owner of the Common Craft minimalistic video lessons and at the same time the author of the book “ Art to explain ” writes that it is very important for a person to first answer the question “why?”, And only then he will be interested in the answer to the question “how?” creation of clips in the style of Common Craft and Google, and Dropbox, and Twitter).
Therefore, I decided to understand the theory of probability: I bought different books like “ Pleasure from X ”, and then I also hired two tutors via Skype.
In the end, everything began to become clearer, and it was decided to share their insights with a wide audience.
')
The most beautiful example I have found is bolts in tea. In Soviet times, there was a GOST standard for the maximum content of bolts / nuts in tea, which got there during harvest: "the mass fraction of metal-magnetic admixture" should not exceed 5-7 grams per ton. For this, a sample was checked and a conclusion was made on it over the entire batch of tea.
And from this example, you can move on to a more global example of the application of statistical analysis - to the Japanese economic miracle.
In general, all this is mentioned in the teaser webinar :
There are many examples that can be cited - not only the probability of the Progress spacecraft falling onto land, but also insurance, code decryption, and verification of the likelihood of statements in court.
There are a lot of books mentioned in the webinar:
And the post here is http://zero2hero.org/webinar/details/terver
50 minutes - a report (with examples from “Back to the Future”) and 30 minutes for questions.
The likelihood that there will be comrades who do not agree with the accuracy of my formulations is very high.
The plus of such a statement is this: students were interested. In the middle of the webinar, one girl even asks the question: "Wow ... And how exactly is sigma calculated?".
I am convinced that this is exactly the question to which the audience must be brought with interesting stories - and already then give formulas.
Enjoy watching!
PS And the probability theory can also be used for teaching programming .
Year after year I come across such a phenomenon that students do not understand why and why they need to learn this discipline.
This is a really important issue. The owner of the Common Craft minimalistic video lessons and at the same time the author of the book “ Art to explain ” writes that it is very important for a person to first answer the question “why?”, And only then he will be interested in the answer to the question “how?” creation of clips in the style of Common Craft and Google, and Dropbox, and Twitter).
Therefore, I decided to understand the theory of probability: I bought different books like “ Pleasure from X ”, and then I also hired two tutors via Skype.
In the end, everything began to become clearer, and it was decided to share their insights with a wide audience.
')
The most beautiful example I have found is bolts in tea. In Soviet times, there was a GOST standard for the maximum content of bolts / nuts in tea, which got there during harvest: "the mass fraction of metal-magnetic admixture" should not exceed 5-7 grams per ton. For this, a sample was checked and a conclusion was made on it over the entire batch of tea.
And from this example, you can move on to a more global example of the application of statistical analysis - to the Japanese economic miracle.
In general, all this is mentioned in the teaser webinar :
There are many examples that can be cited - not only the probability of the Progress spacecraft falling onto land, but also insurance, code decryption, and verification of the likelihood of statements in court.
There are a lot of books mentioned in the webinar:
- Mlodinov. (Not) perfect coincidence.
- Tarasov. Regularities of the surrounding world (first volume, and there are three of them!)
- John W. Foreman. Data Smart.
- Kitaygorodsky. Incredible - not a fact.
- Nassim Taleb. Black Swan.
- Andrew Siegel Practical business statistics.
- Mayer-Schönberger. Big Data.
And the post here is http://zero2hero.org/webinar/details/terver
50 minutes - a report (with examples from “Back to the Future”) and 30 minutes for questions.
The likelihood that there will be comrades who do not agree with the accuracy of my formulations is very high.
The plus of such a statement is this: students were interested. In the middle of the webinar, one girl even asks the question: "Wow ... And how exactly is sigma calculated?".
I am convinced that this is exactly the question to which the audience must be brought with interesting stories - and already then give formulas.
Enjoy watching!
PS And the probability theory can also be used for teaching programming .
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/259285/
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