How to carry out an assessment on three points?
You should learn how to estimate the deadlines for the tasks at three points, as this is certainly the best technique for estimating the duration of the work together with the members of your project team. The technique is called “three-point assessment” because team members give pessimistic, optimistic, and most likely estimates of the completion time. This technique is one of the best approaches, as it allows the project manager to achieve the following:
Discussing the risks in a task, we give the employee the opportunity to participate in the assessment process. We also bypass those games that usually occur in the evaluation of a single value. Usually in the process of determining this single value, team members stretch it as much as they can. They know from experience that the project manager will probably arbitrarily cut it. This is definitely not a way to get a good grade.
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When we evaluate at three points, we record all three assessments in the relevant documents, as well as the positive and negative risks identified for the task. We openly inform the project team and customers that the estimates are not 100% accurate. That there are risks that we have considered and which may affect the time of the task. This approach removes some of the doubts of team members regarding the process of assessing tasks.
The three-point assessment provides us with better information, since we clearly take risks into account. In addition, we will learn about the risks of a task in the early stages of the process and find out who will carry out the task. All this gives us the opportunity to take corrective action before work is started. This increases the likelihood of good risks and reduces the likelihood of bad ones.
For example, a member of the team says that when performing work to which a certain department of the company was involved, the amount of work increased significantly due to the fact that the managers and managers of this department constantly missed the appointments. Knowing this, we can take steps to ensure that representatives of this department attend the meetings. We can even attract a project customer to get a promise from them to attend meetings. If we can reduce the likelihood of negative risks, then we make a big step towards improving the project time frame.
Posted by: Dick Billows
Original article: How to do 3-point Estimating
Additional materials: PERT
- Increase accuracy compared to a single point estimate.
- Improve the commitments received from the team, because the assessment takes into account the risks.
- Get useful information about the risks in each task.
A three-point estimate is a three-step process.
- We work with a team member who will perform a task in order to identify both positive and negative risks associated with his task. Negative risks are those that can increase the duration of the task, positive - reduce.
- We then ask the team member to name the three ratings. The first is the most probable (BG), which is the average duration of work on a task, if an employee does it 100 times. The second assessment is pessimistic (P) - the duration of work on the task, if all the negative factors that we have identified are working. Finally, we ask for an optimistic estimate (O) which takes into account all previously identified positive factors.
- Now we carry out simple calculations with the three estimates obtained. We calculate the value and standard deviation using the formulas for estimating by three points: (O + 4 * BG + P) / 6 = weighted value, and (PO) / 6 = standard deviation (used to calculate probabilities). The weighted value of the three assessments that the team member gave us is the grade that we use for his task. It takes into account the risks in the task and the consequences of the impact of positive and negative risks.
Discussing the risks in a task, we give the employee the opportunity to participate in the assessment process. We also bypass those games that usually occur in the evaluation of a single value. Usually in the process of determining this single value, team members stretch it as much as they can. They know from experience that the project manager will probably arbitrarily cut it. This is definitely not a way to get a good grade.
')
When we evaluate at three points, we record all three assessments in the relevant documents, as well as the positive and negative risks identified for the task. We openly inform the project team and customers that the estimates are not 100% accurate. That there are risks that we have considered and which may affect the time of the task. This approach removes some of the doubts of team members regarding the process of assessing tasks.
Total
The three-point assessment provides us with better information, since we clearly take risks into account. In addition, we will learn about the risks of a task in the early stages of the process and find out who will carry out the task. All this gives us the opportunity to take corrective action before work is started. This increases the likelihood of good risks and reduces the likelihood of bad ones.
For example, a member of the team says that when performing work to which a certain department of the company was involved, the amount of work increased significantly due to the fact that the managers and managers of this department constantly missed the appointments. Knowing this, we can take steps to ensure that representatives of this department attend the meetings. We can even attract a project customer to get a promise from them to attend meetings. If we can reduce the likelihood of negative risks, then we make a big step towards improving the project time frame.
Posted by: Dick Billows
Original article: How to do 3-point Estimating
Additional materials: PERT
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/248325/
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