What you need * (in difficult 2015)
This article is approved by Grigory bobuk Bakunov and Chuck Norris **
Gregory is saying to us: "01,110,011 01100101 01100101 00100000 01111001 01101111 01110101 00100000 01101111 01101110 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01101111 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01110011 01.11001 million 01101001 01100100 01100101"
You have read (or, at least, seen in the tapes) about a dozen wanging articles, but none of them were written based on the speech “the geekiest geek in Russia” ***
')
2015 - the year of fatally destroyed plans or magically emerging opportunities? There are as many answers as there are those who ask themselves this question. One thing is clear - IT projects are more likely to take off if they pay attention to what Grigory Bakunov told us.
Grisha has been preparing speeches about IT trends for #tceh for several years in a row, and most of his theses come true. Here, for example, several of those that were predicted by Bobuk and really happened in 2014.
Content management with “38 most-parrots” style picks and digests, which Buzzfeed was famous for in 2011, in 2014 did not use only the lazy ones on Habré.
But no, they used it on Habré too.
Data encryption ? Well, of course - Telegram is growing; interface lock gadgets fingerprint introduced more manufacturers; took off a startup using heart rate as a password.
Machine learning ! Oh yeah! This phrase is firmly included in the startup Bullshit Bingo this year. In any incomprehensible situation - shout “machine learning!” - and you will be happy. And maybe even investment.
In general, Gregory did not miss last year, which means he can be trusted in this as well.
So let's proceed to the analysis of trends in 2015.
It was interesting to see the results of the work of the projects in the trend of the past crisis (2008) - a shared economy , which is directly related to the new growing trend of the year 2015. Using his example, Gregory clearly showed the project development path in difficult times: the project grows extremely slowly in a crisis - looking for a niche monetization model, completes the team. But then, when the general growth of the economy begins - BENG! - and he already stands as a unicorn. The cycle takes 5-6 years. Example? Look at the airbnb.
At first glance, the 2015 trend associated with the shared economy phenomenon sounds even more strange: “ cheaper does not mean worse ” - and it is already being used by the most innovative players. Such as Xiaomi. The Chinese corporation, which produces top-end gadgets on Android, and is already included in the top four by the number of devices sold, uses a pre-order model at a price lower than the market.
What does this give? At a minimum - testing the market, and in fact - the ability to avoid lending for the release of new hardware. After all, when they order from you at a low price, this does not mean that the price is lower than the cost price, which makes it possible to produce larger series and launch them with already confirmed demand. So, really - “cheaper”! = “Worse”. In any case, for the Chinese corporation.
The second trend is a bit similar to the opinion of Captain O - “ struggle with the imperfections of the world ” - but the example with which Gregory illustrated it makes you think hard and give up labels and value judgments.
Those who used WhatsUp at its dawn, remember how clearly this messenger showed the presence or absence of the Internet. This feature was the one that solved the real problem of many. The question: “does it catch 3G now?” - it was solved perfectly simply - without any additional ping tests. Notice - a bonus to this feature was also given a full messenger!
You will definitely like the third trend. It is called “ entertainment .” Who doesn't like to have fun? And do not tell me that you are workaholics - even if this is so, then work is your entertainment (I remember how I woke up at night to load my Spectrum from a cassette and write in a dozen or two or three lines that I dreamed of). But this time, Gregory was not talking about code, but about entertainment in the widest sense: funny videos, quotes, cats, and most importantly, mobile applications.
Moreover, “mobile applications” are not necessarily games. Applications have become an independent media that entertains us, even if their functions are reduced to the choice of background color and character set - yes, he talked about Secret. This small anonymizer briefly, but intensively entertained a hefty part of the “digital party” in late spring - early summer 2014.
Adjacent to this trend is the increasing focus of content in the visual direction. Perhaps you do not have a Facebook account and you didn’t notice how they introduced the ability to comment with “stickers” (a new subspecies emoticons). Grigory said that he would not be surprised if soon (he didn’t specify when) the Internet will turn into a fully visual media.
The reverse side of the trend of “entertainment” will hurt the optimizers of human souls and processes - most CRM, to-do sheets and other time managers are waiting for sales to fall (and Tanks Online will grow). In a crisis, no one wants to work more - they want more fun and distraction. Unless you change the communication in time.
If your service optimizes something - do not say that it “makes life easier” or “makes the processes transparent” - all this is perishable or even worse for people who are under stress. Better say that your service “optimizes expenses”, and even better - “increases revenues”, and then you can survive and, possibly, grow a little in sales.
The fourth and, as I understand it, Grigory's favorite trend is decentralization . Total. Computing, sharing content, creating content, storing data - the same thing - everything.
The examples were well disclosed in the Q & A part with the audience after the solo performance. So, it turned out that, according to Grisha (and also by common sense,) the already mentioned Airbnb simply has to become a decentralized service in order to survive. As is known, this service is “banned by cities” - that is, it prohibits work at the level of city administrations. To overcome this trend, Airbnb just needs to start selling franchises to local enthusiasts who find it much easier to solve issues in their hometown than Airbnb tops from their headquarters.
Decentralization is closely intertwined with another trend that has been defined as “ hyperlocality ”. A good example is FireChat - yes, that scandalous application on peer-to-peer-mesh technology, the use of which was openly publicized during the “umbrella revolution” in Hong Kong.
Another, much more positive example, was unexpectedly our application - #tceh (so far only for green droids ), the meaning of which lies in meeting and communicating within a specific event and decreases (but does not disappear) as people physically move away from each other. a friend simply because his role is to establish contact with the right person here and now.
The last (but not least) trend revealed in the speech was “ niches ”. Think trite? Maybe. But trends do not necessarily have to be mind-blowing. They must be real. And the use of niches is more than realistic - it is saving for a project in a crisis.
Put on your niche, as did Pinterest, becoming for the beginning a service for the exchange of recipes for housewives. And after you master it - the crisis will decline, and you will be able to shoot a polished product into a larger audience!
At this point I almost finish the description of Gregory's solo performance. You can appreciate my interpretation in the comments after watching 25 minutes of the video , which is worth it, since Grisha masterfully speaks the word and listens to it, as always, pleasant and interesting (not for me to tell you - you are familiar with Radio T).
If you want to know more - watch the video with questions from the audience and Grisha’s answers. No less exciting!
From it you will learn, for example:
- optimal monetization model in crisis
- why “Russian FireChat” should not be associated with politics
- what will remain on the Internet of the future: books or “game” formats
- when the trend “simplification” died
- what is the reason that “Microsoft once again hacked Apple”
- what killed Zlango
- why China does not need our IT (spoiler hint: in China there are 36 popular stores for android)
Thank you for reading to the end - I enthusiastically wrote this text until 4:04 in the morning.
I want to finish with a statistical fact (from the post) and a quote (from the presentation of Gregory) - a wish for all of us in the New Year.
Fact : in 1325 words of this text “trend” is used 13 times (including this one).
Quote : “Be yourself, the rest of the roles are taken.” Oscar Wilde
____________________________________
* “What You Need” is what Henry Kuttner and Catherine Moore’s fantasy story was written in 1945
** Chuck Norris is a mythical character to whom we dedicate our newsletters .
*** ( c ) Nikolay ni404 Belousov
Gregory is saying to us: "01,110,011 01100101 01100101 00100000 01111001 01101111 01110101 00100000 01101111 01101110 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01101111 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01110011 01.11001 million 01101001 01100100 01100101"
You have read (or, at least, seen in the tapes) about a dozen wanging articles, but none of them were written based on the speech “the geekiest geek in Russia” ***
')
2015 - the year of fatally destroyed plans or magically emerging opportunities? There are as many answers as there are those who ask themselves this question. One thing is clear - IT projects are more likely to take off if they pay attention to what Grigory Bakunov told us.
Grisha has been preparing speeches about IT trends for #tceh for several years in a row, and most of his theses come true. Here, for example, several of those that were predicted by Bobuk and really happened in 2014.
Content management with “38 most-parrots” style picks and digests, which Buzzfeed was famous for in 2011, in 2014 did not use only the lazy ones on Habré.
But no, they used it on Habré too.
Data encryption ? Well, of course - Telegram is growing; interface lock gadgets fingerprint introduced more manufacturers; took off a startup using heart rate as a password.
Machine learning ! Oh yeah! This phrase is firmly included in the startup Bullshit Bingo this year. In any incomprehensible situation - shout “machine learning!” - and you will be happy. And maybe even investment.
In general, Gregory did not miss last year, which means he can be trusted in this as well.
So let's proceed to the analysis of trends in 2015.
It was interesting to see the results of the work of the projects in the trend of the past crisis (2008) - a shared economy , which is directly related to the new growing trend of the year 2015. Using his example, Gregory clearly showed the project development path in difficult times: the project grows extremely slowly in a crisis - looking for a niche monetization model, completes the team. But then, when the general growth of the economy begins - BENG! - and he already stands as a unicorn. The cycle takes 5-6 years. Example? Look at the airbnb.
At first glance, the 2015 trend associated with the shared economy phenomenon sounds even more strange: “ cheaper does not mean worse ” - and it is already being used by the most innovative players. Such as Xiaomi. The Chinese corporation, which produces top-end gadgets on Android, and is already included in the top four by the number of devices sold, uses a pre-order model at a price lower than the market.
What does this give? At a minimum - testing the market, and in fact - the ability to avoid lending for the release of new hardware. After all, when they order from you at a low price, this does not mean that the price is lower than the cost price, which makes it possible to produce larger series and launch them with already confirmed demand. So, really - “cheaper”! = “Worse”. In any case, for the Chinese corporation.
The second trend is a bit similar to the opinion of Captain O - “ struggle with the imperfections of the world ” - but the example with which Gregory illustrated it makes you think hard and give up labels and value judgments.
Those who used WhatsUp at its dawn, remember how clearly this messenger showed the presence or absence of the Internet. This feature was the one that solved the real problem of many. The question: “does it catch 3G now?” - it was solved perfectly simply - without any additional ping tests. Notice - a bonus to this feature was also given a full messenger!
You will definitely like the third trend. It is called “ entertainment .” Who doesn't like to have fun? And do not tell me that you are workaholics - even if this is so, then work is your entertainment (I remember how I woke up at night to load my Spectrum from a cassette and write in a dozen or two or three lines that I dreamed of). But this time, Gregory was not talking about code, but about entertainment in the widest sense: funny videos, quotes, cats, and most importantly, mobile applications.
Moreover, “mobile applications” are not necessarily games. Applications have become an independent media that entertains us, even if their functions are reduced to the choice of background color and character set - yes, he talked about Secret. This small anonymizer briefly, but intensively entertained a hefty part of the “digital party” in late spring - early summer 2014.
Adjacent to this trend is the increasing focus of content in the visual direction. Perhaps you do not have a Facebook account and you didn’t notice how they introduced the ability to comment with “stickers” (a new subspecies emoticons). Grigory said that he would not be surprised if soon (he didn’t specify when) the Internet will turn into a fully visual media.
The reverse side of the trend of “entertainment” will hurt the optimizers of human souls and processes - most CRM, to-do sheets and other time managers are waiting for sales to fall (and Tanks Online will grow). In a crisis, no one wants to work more - they want more fun and distraction. Unless you change the communication in time.
If your service optimizes something - do not say that it “makes life easier” or “makes the processes transparent” - all this is perishable or even worse for people who are under stress. Better say that your service “optimizes expenses”, and even better - “increases revenues”, and then you can survive and, possibly, grow a little in sales.
The fourth and, as I understand it, Grigory's favorite trend is decentralization . Total. Computing, sharing content, creating content, storing data - the same thing - everything.
The examples were well disclosed in the Q & A part with the audience after the solo performance. So, it turned out that, according to Grisha (and also by common sense,) the already mentioned Airbnb simply has to become a decentralized service in order to survive. As is known, this service is “banned by cities” - that is, it prohibits work at the level of city administrations. To overcome this trend, Airbnb just needs to start selling franchises to local enthusiasts who find it much easier to solve issues in their hometown than Airbnb tops from their headquarters.
Decentralization is closely intertwined with another trend that has been defined as “ hyperlocality ”. A good example is FireChat - yes, that scandalous application on peer-to-peer-mesh technology, the use of which was openly publicized during the “umbrella revolution” in Hong Kong.
Another, much more positive example, was unexpectedly our application - #tceh (so far only for green droids ), the meaning of which lies in meeting and communicating within a specific event and decreases (but does not disappear) as people physically move away from each other. a friend simply because his role is to establish contact with the right person here and now.
The last (but not least) trend revealed in the speech was “ niches ”. Think trite? Maybe. But trends do not necessarily have to be mind-blowing. They must be real. And the use of niches is more than realistic - it is saving for a project in a crisis.
Put on your niche, as did Pinterest, becoming for the beginning a service for the exchange of recipes for housewives. And after you master it - the crisis will decline, and you will be able to shoot a polished product into a larger audience!
At this point I almost finish the description of Gregory's solo performance. You can appreciate my interpretation in the comments after watching 25 minutes of the video , which is worth it, since Grisha masterfully speaks the word and listens to it, as always, pleasant and interesting (not for me to tell you - you are familiar with Radio T).
If you want to know more - watch the video with questions from the audience and Grisha’s answers. No less exciting!
From it you will learn, for example:
- optimal monetization model in crisis
- why “Russian FireChat” should not be associated with politics
- what will remain on the Internet of the future: books or “game” formats
- when the trend “simplification” died
- what is the reason that “Microsoft once again hacked Apple”
- what killed Zlango
- why China does not need our IT (spoiler hint: in China there are 36 popular stores for android)
Thank you for reading to the end - I enthusiastically wrote this text until 4:04 in the morning.
I want to finish with a statistical fact (from the post) and a quote (from the presentation of Gregory) - a wish for all of us in the New Year.
Fact : in 1325 words of this text “trend” is used 13 times (including this one).
Quote : “Be yourself, the rest of the roles are taken.” Oscar Wilde
____________________________________
* “What You Need” is what Henry Kuttner and Catherine Moore’s fantasy story was written in 1945
** Chuck Norris is a mythical character to whom we dedicate our newsletters .
*** ( c ) Nikolay ni404 Belousov
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/247131/
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