Thoughts on MS, Yahu and Google
As you know, today Microsoft has officially withdrawn the offer to buy Yahoo!
This is a good time to make predictions - there is a lot of information, markets will open only on Monday and we will see the reaction to this event only in a day.
So, most likely the MC shares will grow up a bit, Yaha will fall seriously. There are different scenarios that analysts are talking about, but in general, Yahu will fall from 10% to 30% (all that Yahu gained during negotiations with MS + some inert component). It is difficult to predict further, it all depends on which lobby at the shareholders meeting will be stronger. If those who wanted to sell their stock at a premium win, then the board and the CEO will most likely lose their posts. Then everything will be bad - the search for a new CEO, his introduction into the course of affairs, the loss of pace, the revision of the strategy. As a result, the loss of revenues and the market, the remnants of top management will scatter and then MS or someone else will buy the company, much cheaper than 44 billion (in the perspective of 12-18 months). The probability that this will happen - is scanty, but there is. Most likely another option is when part of the bordists leaves - they had heavy pressure, the whole top management would retain their positions and get a small carte blanche, which was confirmed by the MS interest to the company, a pool of promising new products and technologies, a good quarterly report (even under pressure from MS), market sympathy. In any case, there will be claims of minority shareholders, who were very much for this deal.
Shares of the MC will grow up, but Ballmer lost his position - not very successful way out of Vista, the loss of the online war BOLGOMUG, the failure to take over Yahu, who diverted the tops from the strategy, set up the Internet publicly against the MS. The lobby oriented against Ballmer, among shareholders and tops, received even more trumps.
So, Yahu and Young (we are waiting for the meeting of shareholders), who lost the MC and Ballmer, emerged from the fight as a conditional winner. The absolute winner was Google (waiting for quarterly reports on the market share of search requests and visited sites), which received an advertising agreement with Yaha (and it is not yet clear if there were any non-public agreements), at the time of instability some customers, partners and users refused partnerships and services, both Yahu and MS (do I have to say where they went?).
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The likelihood that the MC will repeat the attempt to buy Yaha is minimal. Moreover, it is ridiculous to say that the MC invested these 44 yards in its Internet direction. So, the market will develop as before. Google’s share will slowly and steadily grow (the farther, the slower and more confident), the rest will fight for pride of place in the top three. At the same time, everyone will earn - the online advertising market will continue to grow, the financial crisis in this case, all players will be on hand.
Ps. Microsoft may think that he got off well, because he doesn’t know what he was facing with such absorption.
This is a good time to make predictions - there is a lot of information, markets will open only on Monday and we will see the reaction to this event only in a day.
So, most likely the MC shares will grow up a bit, Yaha will fall seriously. There are different scenarios that analysts are talking about, but in general, Yahu will fall from 10% to 30% (all that Yahu gained during negotiations with MS + some inert component). It is difficult to predict further, it all depends on which lobby at the shareholders meeting will be stronger. If those who wanted to sell their stock at a premium win, then the board and the CEO will most likely lose their posts. Then everything will be bad - the search for a new CEO, his introduction into the course of affairs, the loss of pace, the revision of the strategy. As a result, the loss of revenues and the market, the remnants of top management will scatter and then MS or someone else will buy the company, much cheaper than 44 billion (in the perspective of 12-18 months). The probability that this will happen - is scanty, but there is. Most likely another option is when part of the bordists leaves - they had heavy pressure, the whole top management would retain their positions and get a small carte blanche, which was confirmed by the MS interest to the company, a pool of promising new products and technologies, a good quarterly report (even under pressure from MS), market sympathy. In any case, there will be claims of minority shareholders, who were very much for this deal.
Shares of the MC will grow up, but Ballmer lost his position - not very successful way out of Vista, the loss of the online war BOLGOMUG, the failure to take over Yahu, who diverted the tops from the strategy, set up the Internet publicly against the MS. The lobby oriented against Ballmer, among shareholders and tops, received even more trumps.
So, Yahu and Young (we are waiting for the meeting of shareholders), who lost the MC and Ballmer, emerged from the fight as a conditional winner. The absolute winner was Google (waiting for quarterly reports on the market share of search requests and visited sites), which received an advertising agreement with Yaha (and it is not yet clear if there were any non-public agreements), at the time of instability some customers, partners and users refused partnerships and services, both Yahu and MS (do I have to say where they went?).
')
The likelihood that the MC will repeat the attempt to buy Yaha is minimal. Moreover, it is ridiculous to say that the MC invested these 44 yards in its Internet direction. So, the market will develop as before. Google’s share will slowly and steadily grow (the farther, the slower and more confident), the rest will fight for pride of place in the top three. At the same time, everyone will earn - the online advertising market will continue to grow, the financial crisis in this case, all players will be on hand.
Ps. Microsoft may think that he got off well, because he doesn’t know what he was facing with such absorption.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/24708/
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