The dynamics of the situation: how it was in 2008
Hello.
As promised yesterday in the article “Loading: system, export of problems down, crisis and strategy of behavior” , we continue the conversation.
Yesterday we talked about what, from our point of view, behavioral patterns inherent in crisis situations to business and the state. And also, I would like to highlight this separately and repeat: you and me, this applies first and foremost.
')
Employees of intellectual work (as all IT specialists and engineers comrades Peter Drucker and Philip Kotler identified) and representatives of the middle class who are striving for zero in terms of population are the number one goal for everyone who has the levers of information influence in their hands: we have money, we can work and we can, it remains to cut down the opportunity to adequately analyze the situation, and we can continue to “push loans” and “form a point of view”.
World crisis !! 111 Ahhhhh! Everything is lost! It is urgent to change rubles and hryvnia into dollars. Buy buckwheat, salt, matches and burzhuyku. Not the time, not the time now to think about something else, when geopolitical wars, Ebola and ISIS dominate the world! At the same time, somehow the party always manages such a simple idea that:
The simulated crisis of the world economy does not automatically mean the crisis of each individual person.
However, now they are trying to lower the “Crisis Situation” from above - by clogging our brains with information flows. Exactly at the time of this writing, one of us was called by a good friend of his, who was very worried about the crisis. For 15 minutes we talked with a person, translating emotions into facts.
Damn it, emotions are exactly what we are, apparently, our government systems are failing. A clogged brain is more easily controlled by emotions.
Let's go back a little and define the word “crisis”.
If we have a clear goal, there is a resource and we know a way to achieve the goal - this is the task. If there is a goal and a resource, but not a solution, this is a problem. Speaking about solving a problem, we usually talk about finding a solution - a way to achieve a goal, or reviewing the goal itself. But when there is no solution and there is no resource for finding this very method - this is a crisis. A crisis is a situation in which there are no resources to solve a problem / task and find another way to solve it.
Did any of you have problems yesterday that you have no way to cope with? Your tasks, not global. Yours Not? You are working. Continue to perform tasks. Yes, some of the projects will have to stop. Some even freeze. This is called “project portfolio management.” AND? Where is your personal crisis?
Now information flows are trying to take away your resource - time (TV, emotions) and money (aah, urgently need to buy a new wardrobe, until the national currency is completely depreciated).
At the same time, during a crisis, people make qualitative leaps:
What to go far - let's take 2008. The global crisis, the war of Russia with Georgia, which pre-downturned the Russian stock market. The first thing that companies reduce in a crisis is budgets for marketing, training, travel, and other non-production activities.
And exactly this year one of us opens his training company, and the second begins to engage in sales training of a large training center. It would seem that conditions are the worst. But if you think about it - how much then managed to do everything! New programs, new projects - and this against the background of the rest when groaning about the crisis around.
What did our colleagues do at this moment? We sat in their seats and did not twitch. What happened after 2 years? We filled our first bumps and reached a new level of income, business and work pleasure. Colleagues continued to sit in the same place where they were sitting. On the same frozen salaries, but in conditions when money began to cost cheaper.
Real life story
One of our students at the time of the 2008 crisis turned out to be on the market (his salary was too high to maintain the necessary margin in the project). He came to a nearby outsourcing company with the words: “Give me a job.”
Since there was no work during the crisis, they threw up their hands on that side. As a result, he got less money for a job that he exceeded in qualification, but which required long-term business trips.
Two weeks later he went on a business trip to the customer for two months. Since the technical competence of a person and his English were at the level, these two months he actively communicated with the customer - about their business, needs for crisis, marketing, etc.
As a result, he returned with a new project, which he became the head of. The project was to develop solutions for stock markets, which during the crisis just earn the most because of the increasing number of transactions.
An example of a higher level, which will lead us to the definition of a “bifurcation point”
2008, the crisis of which many companies competently used to get rid of uninteresting and unprofitable projects and only improved their own business. Yes, I had to work more to get upstairs on the remaining projects, but there are not one and not two such examples.
And another model: cost reduction due to “cutting the pool of resources”: yes, yes, you correctly translated for yourself this consulting speech turnover - staff reduction. Moreover, it looked particularly cynical in the case of the outsourcing business, which went on the principle of “pruning those for whom the company earns less” - that is, the highest paid specialists. Business is nothing personal. Producers, whose business is several times more stable than outsourcing, wisely used this, because along with foam and overvalued “specialists”, people with unique skills and expertise came to the market. And if they turned out to be flexible in terms of conditions (by the way, as an example, which is given above), many of them found very interesting projects in new companies - in companies that had the opportunity to hire those who had not entered the market before.
The “bifurcation point” in system theory is an unstable or critical state, from which the system goes either to a fundamentally new level, or remains at the previous level to the next and, usually, quite a long period of time.
That is, we either “slow down” and for another couple of years we are weaving at the same “slowed down” speed (well, the crisis is ...), or quietly “add gas” in order to move to the next orbit like an electron. New project, new customer, new product or new business.
In terms of such a system as “man,” the bifurcation point is described by people as an extremely incomprehensible state with an unclear future. That is, it is not clear what to do, it is not clear where to go, and how much exactly buckwheat or square meters in the newly built building in the steppe should be purchased. Familiar condition, right?
The crisis for us, ordinary people, with everyday tasks and less defined plans (family, home, children, rest and peace to see), is simply “a bifurcation point”. In which you can slow down, vzhav head in the shoulders. Or choose any managed strategy: a way of action that depends only on you and does not depend (as in the case of buying a currency) on external factors that we do not control.
We offer our solution, our sustainable strategy, which helped us and our students - move away from information noise in learning with your head. Load your input channel with the information that is guaranteed and useful for you. Knowledge, skills. Thus, you are simultaneously shutting off the flow of uncontrollable external information, whose task is only to add emotions to everyone and solve the long-term task of reaching a new level of professional career.
The only investment that does not depreciate is an investment in yourself. The only asset that is very difficult to take away and, at the same time, your work tool that needs to be updated and honed is your brain and your ability to manage it.
We offer a new, annual training program from the Stratoplan School of Managers, the announcement of which will take place on December 16th (Tuesday, next week) at 11-00 Moscow time.
Register and come:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1202720948275279617
Where we are and what is ahead:
What we sorted out:
What else will be in this cycle of materials:
December 16th (BT), at 11-00 MSK, we will conduct an online presentation of the new annual training program for the Managers School Stratoplan.
Register now to not miss and forget: it is free and takes less than 30 seconds:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1202720948275279617
Do not switch. Before communication the day after tomorrow.
-
Respectfully,
Alexander Orlov, Slava Pankratov
Managers School Stratoplan
As promised yesterday in the article “Loading: system, export of problems down, crisis and strategy of behavior” , we continue the conversation.
Yesterday we talked about what, from our point of view, behavioral patterns inherent in crisis situations to business and the state. And also, I would like to highlight this separately and repeat: you and me, this applies first and foremost.
')
Employees of intellectual work (as all IT specialists and engineers comrades Peter Drucker and Philip Kotler identified) and representatives of the middle class who are striving for zero in terms of population are the number one goal for everyone who has the levers of information influence in their hands: we have money, we can work and we can, it remains to cut down the opportunity to adequately analyze the situation, and we can continue to “push loans” and “form a point of view”.
World crisis !! 111 Ahhhhh! Everything is lost! It is urgent to change rubles and hryvnia into dollars. Buy buckwheat, salt, matches and burzhuyku. Not the time, not the time now to think about something else, when geopolitical wars, Ebola and ISIS dominate the world! At the same time, somehow the party always manages such a simple idea that:
The simulated crisis of the world economy does not automatically mean the crisis of each individual person.
However, now they are trying to lower the “Crisis Situation” from above - by clogging our brains with information flows. Exactly at the time of this writing, one of us was called by a good friend of his, who was very worried about the crisis. For 15 minutes we talked with a person, translating emotions into facts.
Damn it, emotions are exactly what we are, apparently, our government systems are failing. A clogged brain is more easily controlled by emotions.
Let's go back a little and define the word “crisis”.
If we have a clear goal, there is a resource and we know a way to achieve the goal - this is the task. If there is a goal and a resource, but not a solution, this is a problem. Speaking about solving a problem, we usually talk about finding a solution - a way to achieve a goal, or reviewing the goal itself. But when there is no solution and there is no resource for finding this very method - this is a crisis. A crisis is a situation in which there are no resources to solve a problem / task and find another way to solve it.
Did any of you have problems yesterday that you have no way to cope with? Your tasks, not global. Yours Not? You are working. Continue to perform tasks. Yes, some of the projects will have to stop. Some even freeze. This is called “project portfolio management.” AND? Where is your personal crisis?
Now information flows are trying to take away your resource - time (TV, emotions) and money (aah, urgently need to buy a new wardrobe, until the national currency is completely depreciated).
At the same time, during a crisis, people make qualitative leaps:
- Sergey Korolev, who in the first years after World War II creates a ballistic missile that has no analogues
- William Deming, who revolutionized the quality of production in post-war Japan
- Vladimir Zworykin, who left for the United States, invented the kinescope when the Great Depression raged around
- Max Factor - an emigrant from Odessa, who fled from the civil war in Russia, opened a company for the production of make-up, and became a world famous brand of cosmetics
What to go far - let's take 2008. The global crisis, the war of Russia with Georgia, which pre-downturned the Russian stock market. The first thing that companies reduce in a crisis is budgets for marketing, training, travel, and other non-production activities.
And exactly this year one of us opens his training company, and the second begins to engage in sales training of a large training center. It would seem that conditions are the worst. But if you think about it - how much then managed to do everything! New programs, new projects - and this against the background of the rest when groaning about the crisis around.
What did our colleagues do at this moment? We sat in their seats and did not twitch. What happened after 2 years? We filled our first bumps and reached a new level of income, business and work pleasure. Colleagues continued to sit in the same place where they were sitting. On the same frozen salaries, but in conditions when money began to cost cheaper.
Real life story
One of our students at the time of the 2008 crisis turned out to be on the market (his salary was too high to maintain the necessary margin in the project). He came to a nearby outsourcing company with the words: “Give me a job.”
Since there was no work during the crisis, they threw up their hands on that side. As a result, he got less money for a job that he exceeded in qualification, but which required long-term business trips.
Two weeks later he went on a business trip to the customer for two months. Since the technical competence of a person and his English were at the level, these two months he actively communicated with the customer - about their business, needs for crisis, marketing, etc.
As a result, he returned with a new project, which he became the head of. The project was to develop solutions for stock markets, which during the crisis just earn the most because of the increasing number of transactions.
An example of a higher level, which will lead us to the definition of a “bifurcation point”
2008, the crisis of which many companies competently used to get rid of uninteresting and unprofitable projects and only improved their own business. Yes, I had to work more to get upstairs on the remaining projects, but there are not one and not two such examples.
And another model: cost reduction due to “cutting the pool of resources”: yes, yes, you correctly translated for yourself this consulting speech turnover - staff reduction. Moreover, it looked particularly cynical in the case of the outsourcing business, which went on the principle of “pruning those for whom the company earns less” - that is, the highest paid specialists. Business is nothing personal. Producers, whose business is several times more stable than outsourcing, wisely used this, because along with foam and overvalued “specialists”, people with unique skills and expertise came to the market. And if they turned out to be flexible in terms of conditions (by the way, as an example, which is given above), many of them found very interesting projects in new companies - in companies that had the opportunity to hire those who had not entered the market before.
The “bifurcation point” in system theory is an unstable or critical state, from which the system goes either to a fundamentally new level, or remains at the previous level to the next and, usually, quite a long period of time.
That is, we either “slow down” and for another couple of years we are weaving at the same “slowed down” speed (well, the crisis is ...), or quietly “add gas” in order to move to the next orbit like an electron. New project, new customer, new product or new business.
In terms of such a system as “man,” the bifurcation point is described by people as an extremely incomprehensible state with an unclear future. That is, it is not clear what to do, it is not clear where to go, and how much exactly buckwheat or square meters in the newly built building in the steppe should be purchased. Familiar condition, right?
The crisis for us, ordinary people, with everyday tasks and less defined plans (family, home, children, rest and peace to see), is simply “a bifurcation point”. In which you can slow down, vzhav head in the shoulders. Or choose any managed strategy: a way of action that depends only on you and does not depend (as in the case of buying a currency) on external factors that we do not control.
We offer our solution, our sustainable strategy, which helped us and our students - move away from information noise in learning with your head. Load your input channel with the information that is guaranteed and useful for you. Knowledge, skills. Thus, you are simultaneously shutting off the flow of uncontrollable external information, whose task is only to add emotions to everyone and solve the long-term task of reaching a new level of professional career.
The only investment that does not depreciate is an investment in yourself. The only asset that is very difficult to take away and, at the same time, your work tool that needs to be updated and honed is your brain and your ability to manage it.
We offer a new, annual training program from the Stratoplan School of Managers, the announcement of which will take place on December 16th (Tuesday, next week) at 11-00 Moscow time.
Register and come:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1202720948275279617
Where we are and what is ahead:
What we sorted out:
- How does a state or business system behave in relation to you at the moment of crisis?
- How the situation developed in 2008 and counter-examples of crisis thinking, behavior and results
What else will be in this cycle of materials:
- Solution in statics: counter-loading information that is tested and useful in perspective (knowledge) + the learning process itself helps to reduce situational anxiety, as the head is busy digesting the information and structuring it into a storage system
- Dynamic solution: your efforts must be capitalized. The transition between theory and practice - increasing your income and changing positions to more responsible ones. Our offer: a long-term program of study and transition.
December 16th (BT), at 11-00 MSK, we will conduct an online presentation of the new annual training program for the Managers School Stratoplan.
Register now to not miss and forget: it is free and takes less than 30 seconds:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1202720948275279617
Do not switch. Before communication the day after tomorrow.
-
Respectfully,
Alexander Orlov, Slava Pankratov
Managers School Stratoplan
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/245317/
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