Transformation of smartphones, or is it convenient to call on the tablet

IBM Simon (officially considered the first smartphone - the concept was introduced in 1992) and the Apple iPhone 4S.

The size of the smartphone display is the criterion by which Model A will always be different from Model B. Even if the ideal smartphone, the “ultimate killer of all”, appears on the market one day, competitors will only have to copy it and release it with a different display size. Moreover, there will be no competition between smartphones with identical functionality if there are differences in the screen diagonals. There will always be buyers who want the screen more or less, or average in all respects.

The ideal screen size does not exist in nature. All models, from three-inch to six-inch (and more) are in demand. The question is, what sizes are more popular, is there such a diagonal of the display of the smartphone, which most buyers prefer? 7,300 people ( source ) took part in a survey on PhoneArena.com and for 29.45% of users, the ideal size of the smartphone display was 5. "In second place with a result of 23.43% of the votes 4.7". However, if you add the voices of those who chose the display to less than 5 inches, you get 33.12%. The vast majority chooses really big smartphones.

It is possible to agree with the opinion that the ideal sizes lie between 4.5 "and 5.5", or remain in the minority, but the fact remains - the market is sensitive to the emerging trend. Smartphones with a screen size smaller than 4 "diagonally and larger than 5.7" receive only minor support. Rumors that the dimensions of the display of the iPhone 6 will be equal to 4.7 ", as well as 5.5", only reinforce the confidence of Western publications that beyond this range, "there is no life."
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But we disagree with that opinion.

The evolution of smartphones is usually presented in this way, but now the picture is becoming a mirror image.

A few years ago, compact smartphones dominated the market. Apple dictated fashion and for many years defined the “ideal” screen size of a smartphone in 3.5-4 inches. In surveys among active smartphone users, this display size range also dominated. Nevertheless, the actions of other brands - for example, Samsung - have changed the idea of ​​the optimal size of the device. The success of the iPad in some way predetermined the process of falling demand for the "perfect screen" - the active growth in sales of tablet computers spurred manufacturers to increase the diagonal of the screen phones. At the same time, tablets, actively conquering a new market, began to decrease in size. Sooner or later, all market players had to meet at a certain one-inch point.

Analytical center "Svyaznoy" has prepared such statistics. In 2013, smartphones with a diagonal of 3-4 inches prevailed on the Russian market - half of all smart phones sold a year ago had this display size. In the first half of 2014, the pace of sales of such devices decreased by 11%. Their share in total smartphone sales was less than a third. In 2014, the market is growing only a segment of gadgets with a screen size of 4 inches and above.
The greatest dynamics is shown by phablets - smartphones with a screen size of more than 5 inches. They have become the fastest growing category on the “smart” phone market, overtaking LTE-enabled devices and multi-value smartphones in growth rates. For 6 months, their sales grew by 283% to 911,000 devices, and the market share in units reached 9%, an increase of 3 times. Today, the market "phablet" there are already more than 250 models of gadgets.

The phone should be a phone, not a "shovel"

Smartphone Fly Q200 Swivel. 2.2 inches for aesthetes.

Remember what joy a few years ago caused a smartphone, quietly placed in a narrow pocket? Who just did not say that smartphones from 5 inches will like only a narrow layer of fans of "big gadgets". Now the situation has changed dramatically, only the process of transforming gadgets is still not over. Phablets continue to grow in size. The greatest growth in the six months of 2014 was demonstrated by tablet-phones with a screen diagonal of more than 6 inches - their sales increased by 760%, which exceeds the overall sales rate of phablets by more than 2.5 times.

This seems incredible, given that the share of owners of two or more mobile devices is growing annually. It would seem that all the extra inches of the tablet screen should satisfy the user's needs. But the screen of smartphones is driven by several factors: the development of various types of content, for example, HD-format video, which is more convenient to view on the big screen; launch of 3G and 4G-networks, allowing to consume content through mobile devices; increasing the importance (and quality) of the camera for the smartphone user and the appearance of additional photographic functions. The 5-inch smartphone still surpasses the tablet's mobility, which adds points to it.

Call from 7 inches? Seriously?!

The expression on their faces suggests that happiness lies in size.

Meanwhile, in the tablet market in recent years, there has been a trend opposite to the trend of the development of smartphones - a decrease in the diagonal of displays. Increasingly, new models are called “tablet and phone in one device.”

The share of tablets with a screen of less than 8 inches in the first six months of 2014 reached 60% (in the first half of 2013 it was 45%). Sales of compact tablet computers grew by 83%, which is 2.3 times more than the growth in sales of such devices in general. At the same time, the tablet market with a diagonal of more than 10 inches increased by only 5%. The average screen size of the tablet last year was 7.1 inches, and a year earlier - 7.8 inches.

An amazing process occurs in our eyes - the gradual merging of two categories of gadgets. According to our estimates, in the future, tablets and smartphones will turn into a single type of multifunctional devices, divided into 3 subcategories. The first - compact smartphones with a diagonal of up to 5.5 inches. The second - large-screen tablets from 8.9 inches, relevant for watching videos and games. The most significant changes will occur in the third subcategory - a segment of multifunctional gadgets with a screen diagonal of 6-9 inches.

What will they be?

If you don’t like the question “which display size do you choose?”, Answer with a counter: “Google glass or smart watch?”

A new subcategory of devices will combine the most important functions of smartphones and tablet computers. In the overwhelming majority of gadgets in this subcategory, there will be a GSM module, which today is not available in all compact tablets. Obviously, this may lead to a decrease in the proportion of those who use multiple mobile devices.

However, let's not forget that users evolve not as fast as gadgets. Ultimately, the use of new devices rests on the limitations of ergonomics. We have reached a certain limit in the usability of smartphones and tablets and are trying to overcome it with the help of additional devices. Smart watches and smart glasses not only expand the functionality of smartphones, but also facilitate our interaction with gadgets of various form factors.

The growth of the diagonal of the display and the trend for “smart” gadgets that facilitate the use of not very convenient smartphones, once again shows how far we are from the appearance of a single full-featured device. The market remains so diverse that it is ready to satisfy the needs of almost any user (unless you are a fan of push-button phones). Is this a bad thing? In an era when computer microchips are implanted directly into the brain, such questions will stop worrying us, but for now we continue to monitor the Russian and global market. Perhaps in a few more years, world trends will surprise again.