Technological singularity as an event inevitable
I think many who read these lines today see that progress is accelerating every day. At the beginning of the 20th century, many did not believe in airplanes and thought that "tomorrow will be today." This trend in society has always been observed. Tomorrow will be today. In principle, this is a simple empirical observation, but if you compare what was a year ago and what is today, this progress becomes visible. If the observer had made such an observation at the beginning of the 19th century, he would hardly have seen the obvious progress, unless he would have fallen at a crucial moment. Now, various scientific advances, small and large, occur every day. The Internet has become a catalyst for this process. The free exchange of information united scientists from all over the world and deprived one of the main problems - the re-invention, which the past century often suffered. Of course, now this problem probably remains due to the secrecy of some government programs, but such projects are a drop in a sea of ​​thousands of enthusiasts. Of course, now there are not the best trends of state control, but I, perhaps, will be discussing at the macro scale and will not analyze such details.
For 49 years now, Moore’s law has been implemented, and Intel is preparing new process technologies and new approaches for us. Quantum computers, DNA computers, neural networks are being developed in parallel ... It all happened in just 30 years.
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Everything inevitably indicates a further acceleration of progress and a movement towards a certain point - the technological singularity.
Theory
The exponential growth of technology and progress, which is observed now, leads to a point in the time interval from 2020 to 2070. Many scholars and writers, for example, Vernor Vinge, are more inclined towards the 30s of our century. There are a huge number of different methods for predicting this date, some methods are pessimistic, and some - on the contrary, are too optimistic. Different methods have their own points on which they are based, for example, oil and gas reserves, population, political movements and trends of the current century, and some come from purely logical thinking. For example, one of the main pillars of the theory of technological singularity can be considered evolution and natural selection. If you look at the whole history of life on Earth, then you can see several patterns. One of them is increasing the capacity of biological carriers. Evolution has led us along this path: RNA -> DNA -> The simplest nervous system -> Brain -> Speech -> Writing -> Computers and the Internet (note that each next stage occurred much faster than the previous (!)) What follows next ? Let's be patient with the answer to this question.
If you think a little, you can make a simple conclusion: If we want to further improve existing technologies and create new fantastic technologies, then we must overcome the limits of our consciousness. What do I mean by saying this? I mean that humanity will soon rest on a certain dead end of its thinking abilities and will probably be immersed in many years of stagnation and even the “second Middle Ages”. In order to avoid this and continue this rapid growth, people must do something to increase the potential of their intellect. This I will describe below.
At the moment, there are clearly seen three branches of science that can lead humanity to a singularity:
- Information Technology.
- Nanotechnology.
- Biotechnology.
Information Technology
It is this area in recent years that has undergone the most significant changes and progress in general. Computer science is advancing on all fronts that are becoming available to it. Examples include quantum computers and biocomputers. If it were not for achievements in other areas of science, then these areas would not have appeared. Informatics and gradually opens up new directions - bioinformatics. The influence of computer science is enormous, and in fact it is the most important catalyst for singularity and progress in general. Of course, computer science is the science of information.
Information technologies (in cooperation with others) can give us two main products: Strong AI or / and Man-Computer Interface. The approximate date of the revolution can be the year 2030 named above.
AI
In the context of technological singularity, AI means exactly strong AI, perhaps it will be an exact copy of human consciousness or it will be created by more rational methods, if that is possible. Artificial Intelligence is clearly the subject of a larger and more comprehensive discussion, but I will probably write some background information.
Benefit
The development and successful implementation of a friendly AI should radically change our lives.
Its benefits will come down to the fact that a smart AI will come up with everything for us and, if possible, will generously share its achievements, leading us far into the jungle of singularity.
Theoretically, this hypothetical creature should create an absolute order from the current chaos, for example: full automation of transport and absolute control of road traffic, always stable economic growth, the absence of wars, the constant introduction of new technologies and the prevention of economic stagnation, as well as prospective colonization of space.
Harm and risk
Personally, it seems to me that AI is eradicating one of the most basic needs of people - eternal curiosity. Having created AI, people will have to come to terms with the fact that they have created a creature that exceeds the creators themselves. To accept the fact that they passed the baton to his creation. Perhaps this approach pleases someone, but I think most of the population will not approve of this approach of extermination. It will be necessary to learn how to somehow exist with such a "big brother." If, of course, AI will be friendly. For example, one of the main risks may be completely uncontrolled superhuman intellect, which may not see the benefits in humanity as such, interpret its existence as evolution and domination and declare a semblance of genocide. One can argue on this topic for a very long time, describe methods for creating friendly forms of consciousness, etc. But there are no guarantees. Intelligence, which is smarter than the man himself, can not be predicted.
Human Computer Interface
This direction is not as vague as AI, and there are more realistic and yielding results in it. In fact, in the area of ​​this direction there are not yet such complex and voluminous questions as in questions about the creation of AI. Now there are very active studies in the field of computerized prostheses, as well as various implants directly into the brain.
Benefit
In general and in general, this interface should open up such opportunities: cooperation at the telepathic level via the Internet (or more promising networks of the future), instant access to Internet materials (for example, through augmented reality), the creation of a permanent memory module for saving important notes, and integration of the optic nerve with the resources of the Internet and the creation
Harm and risk
Some ethical issues are currently interfering with research in this area, since even the smallest spread of this technology will interfere with the rapid fragmentation of society. Transhumanists vs. Conservatives.
The risks associated with the emergence of "superhumans" are also many. These people will become more influential and will clearly interfere with the standard course of life. Modification of the body can become gray and uncontrollable process and lead to huge unforeseen disasters in the future.
Nanotechnology
Now almost all research in the field of nanotechnology is reduced to the creation of new nanopolymers based on graphene, fullerenes, the study of the concepts of nanowires, mechanisms, as well as the creation of a theoretical basis for future developments. The main product that can give us nanotech - machines von Neumann.
Von Neumann Machines
The von Neumann machines are robots capable of self-replicating and controlling matter at different levels, depending on their miniature. The triumph of nanotech can be the management of physical matter at the subatomic level. In the framework of current technologies, this is pure NF. To create them will have to overcome a lot of barriers, and just the triumph of nanotechnology may come very late. According to some forecasts - from 2050 to 2100. But in general it is the 2070s. The issues of energy supply, control of millions of replicating machines, orientation in space are not solved (even for the smallest gyroscope or camera, trillions of molecules are needed). There is also a high probability that these robots are not technically feasible at all, at least in our time. Now we are talking about creating "simple" robots, which, for example, will be able to work with biological cells and become a more intelligent helper to our immune system.
Benefit
As mentioned above, this technology can have an excellent medical use: to deprive a person of a large part of known diseases and to remove existing ones. Also, nanotechnology will probably help reanimate cryopatients. With further miniaturization of technology and a reduction in the level of work, new opportunities will be available. For example, work at the cellular level. In cooperation with bioinformatics and cytology, it will be possible to easily achieve physical immortality of the body, disabling the mechanisms of aging, or correct the errors that appear in the process of aging.
In addition to medical applications, nanotech has great potential in the construction of huge astroengineering facilities of a space elevator or even Dyson's scope. In addition to astroengineering constructions, the question of building huge skyscrapers from composite nanomaterials should be resolved. This can solve the issue of overpopulation and multi-level farms and fields.
Harm and risk
Like any developed technology, and this one has huge risks. When it falls into the wrong hands, viruses can be created that will act even more destructive than ordinary biological ones. It can also open up huge opportunities for espionage.
Biotechnology
In technological singularity, biology plays two roles: helping to achieve the physical immortality of the body to realize the unlimited potential of the human person and creating effective nootropes to unlock the enormous potential of the brain, such as people with savant syndrome (or denying the existence of this potential).
Physical immortality
Immortality creates tremendous grounds for moral and ethical issues. However, one should not deny that the value of the life of its citizens has always been important for the state. For this, ministries of health were created and are being created However, along with the increasing life expectancy, issues of “aging” of society are raised. This question is relevant in such developed countries as Japan. Forever young society will be able to constantly accumulate experience and accumulate knowledge, completely free the state from pension payments and the unemployed population. In addition to the promotion of immortality, with the greatest probability of a person will be spared from hereditary diseases, deformities and disabilities at the stage of birth. Already there is IVF .
In addition to ethical issues, the issue of overpopulation is often raised in discussions about immortality. Personally, I think that people who claim that after reaching immortality the population will go up sharply - they are greatly mistaken. It is enough just to look at the statistics and look at the animal world. In countries with a low standard of living, high fertility, and in developed countries such as Australia, Germany, Iceland, Finland and others, absolute control over the level of the population is visible. In the animal world there are exactly the same trends. For example, various insects live day, but are born every day by billions around the world, and long-lived creatures have offspring of a maximum of two or three individuals.
Nootropics
In recent studies, more and more often confirms the information that the brain of a reasonable person has a huge potential, which for some reason is turned off. Perhaps the inclusion of this potential will lead to a rapid "burnout" of the brain, but this issue as a whole is completely unexplored and requires further research. It is also possible that, in addition to the huge opportunities, there are unnecessary abnormalities like autism. There have already been such people in history. For example, Kim Pick, who memorized up to 98% of the read information, or Daniel Tammet, who, I quote:
It can make in the mind the most complicated mathematical calculations, operating with numbers consisting of more than one hundred signs. He also proved that in a week he could learn a completely unfamiliar language (using the example of the Icelandic language).
To describe this phenomenon, scientists have come up with the term "mathematical synesthesia."
Thus, the development of nootropics that can open these sections of the brain, will bring intelligence to a new level and will accompany new risks. In fact, this is a human-computer biological interface, and therefore all the same dangers are affecting it, in particular, the already mentioned fragmentation of society.
Conclusion
What follows next? I do not know. Probably, people will still come to the creation of artificial intelligence. Perhaps this will happen in the 2030s, and perhaps never. We need to realize that if the AI ​​is created, then we still have to hand over the wand sooner or later.
I conceived this article as an article that should change something in the minds of people. I want us all to understand that we live in a very interesting and wonderful time, I think that it is our generation who will either have to plunge into darkness, or break out into the fantastic future of fantastic technologies.
PS I think that there will be comments and questions to my article, I am ready to listen to them quickly and correct the shortcomings :)
Thanks to zv347 for helping me fix bugs and typos.
Thanks to Amomum for the corrected blunder, not Feynman’s machines, but von Neumann’s machines. It is strange that no one noticed before.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/234465/
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