Looking for a Hype Cycle in Google Trends !?
Many people know the technology maturity cycle (Hype Cycle), proposed by the analytical company Gartner. In Wikipedia, it is also called the cycle of hype or the cycle of public interest in technology. Now public interest is clearly manifested in the number of searches for the name of the technology or technology product. And (Oh, joy!) Google has a powerful tool for analyzing the popularity of search queries - Google Trends. For the sake of justice, it must be said that Yandex and some others also have statistics, but much less functional. Accordingly, we can check whether Hype Cycle manifests itself in open Google data, and at the same time compare the popularity of some technologies.
Under the cut there are a couple of graphs on technologies from Hype Cycle and a lot of graphs on holivar topics from IT - from XML vs JOSN to MySQL vs HBase. In general, fertile ground for sofa analytics.
Gartner annually publishes a technology maturity cycle. It would not be superfluous to repeat Wikipedia and say that the cycle consists of five stages - “the emergence of technology” (not many search requests are learned about technology), “the peak of excessive expectations” (it became interesting to all that this technology can and can help in their work ), “Getting rid of illusions” (everything was cleared up and it became clear that there were too many hopes, no one is looking for information on this topic anymore), “overcoming shortcomings” (individual enthusiasts continue to analyze the state of technology) and the “productivity plateau” (at the end ends up figuring out that technology is not so bad that it returns some popularity). Stages are listed sequentially along the direction of the time axis. On the graph, these stages are separated by vertical lines. The wiki is not mentioned, but there is still a sixth stage - “oblivion”, when the niche of using technology tends to zero, as happened with the production of horse saddles and steam cars.
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On the chart Gartner on the X axis - the relative time, and Y - expectations from the technology. At first glance, it seems that expectations can be replaced by the number of search queries related to technology.
The symbol for which the technology is designated is the estimated time for which the technology will reach a “productivity plateau”.
Google Trends have already been mentioned in Habré, but very casually. At one time there were two services with similar functions - Google trends and Search for Insights. In 2012, Search for Insights was closed, and its functionality was incorporated into Google Trends (here again, a reference to Wikipedia).
Google Trends provides normalized graphs of the popularity of selected queries. Those. the graphs show the ratio of the number of queries selected to the total number of requests for a given period of time. In general, you can not bother and perceive graphics intuitively. Data is available from 2004 onwards.
Also in Google Trends it is possible to determine in which part of the earth the request was most popular.
In general, under each picture there is a link to a set of graphs from where the picture was obtained. Fortunately, Google accepts parameters using the GET method.
The above cycle is from 2009, i.e. the technology indicated by the blue circles should have already reached the “plateau of productivity”, and the white circles should have been on it so long ago. Take Web 2.0, SOA, RFID and Tablet PC. And what happened:
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In all, "overcoming shortcomings" is still taking place except for tablets - these generally have some kind of anomalous pattern, which is probably related to mass advertising.
With regard to SOA, there was a crazy idea that overcoming is related to the transition from XML to JSON. As can be seen from the picture, early protocols such as CORBA are almost forgotten, and JSON is gaining popularity and has already overtaken XML.
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As for me, there are two options - either the hype cycle does not work, or the display of “technology expectations” -> the number of related search queries does not work.
Separate software products, of course, are not technologies, but it cannot be excluded that the rush cycle is applicable to them. Of all the graphs viewed, the popularity curve of Google Chrome is most similar to the rush cycle:
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We turn to the most interesting. Google Trends gives you an extra point of view when choosing which language to learn, which software to use.
So, from the following picture it is obvious that to display 3D scenes in the browser, it is more promising to use WebGL, and not outdated VRML with heirs.
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The following figure shows that from the above set it is most promising to learn Python. Although of course the presence of the intent factor.
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The graph of the search portals vividly illustrates the “oblivion” stage using the example of Altavista, which was once very popular.
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According to the databases, we can say that SQL positions are losing, and NoSQL is gaining popularity, although NoSQL is still a long way from the SQL mastodons of the world.
The following two images show both worlds. For the scale in both images, the MongoDB curve is embedded in the same color.
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Very surprised by the decline in the popularity of UML and the complete lack of interest in IDEF:
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Also surprised by the dynamics of the popularity of sorting algorithms, which would seem to fluctuate around a constant, but no ... in 2005
the number of requests for these algorithms has decreased dramatically
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Judging by the graphs obtained, the link between actual popularity and the number of requests is hardly durable. Especially controversial populations sorting. It is difficult to explain such a decline - whether it has increased the number of non-IT google users, or the counting algorithm has changed ...
In any case, Google Trends can serve as the source of an extra subsection in your report on the choice of new technology or software.
Good luck.
PS And yes, if you have an idea of ​​an interesting combination of graphs - add in the comments.
Under the cut there are a couple of graphs on technologies from Hype Cycle and a lot of graphs on holivar topics from IT - from XML vs JOSN to MySQL vs HBase. In general, fertile ground for sofa analytics.
Hype cycle
Gartner annually publishes a technology maturity cycle. It would not be superfluous to repeat Wikipedia and say that the cycle consists of five stages - “the emergence of technology” (not many search requests are learned about technology), “the peak of excessive expectations” (it became interesting to all that this technology can and can help in their work ), “Getting rid of illusions” (everything was cleared up and it became clear that there were too many hopes, no one is looking for information on this topic anymore), “overcoming shortcomings” (individual enthusiasts continue to analyze the state of technology) and the “productivity plateau” (at the end ends up figuring out that technology is not so bad that it returns some popularity). Stages are listed sequentially along the direction of the time axis. On the graph, these stages are separated by vertical lines. The wiki is not mentioned, but there is still a sixth stage - “oblivion”, when the niche of using technology tends to zero, as happened with the production of horse saddles and steam cars.
')
On the chart Gartner on the X axis - the relative time, and Y - expectations from the technology. At first glance, it seems that expectations can be replaced by the number of search queries related to technology.
For the curious
The symbol for which the technology is designated is the estimated time for which the technology will reach a “productivity plateau”.
Google trends
Google Trends have already been mentioned in Habré, but very casually. At one time there were two services with similar functions - Google trends and Search for Insights. In 2012, Search for Insights was closed, and its functionality was incorporated into Google Trends (here again, a reference to Wikipedia).
Google Trends provides normalized graphs of the popularity of selected queries. Those. the graphs show the ratio of the number of queries selected to the total number of requests for a given period of time. In general, you can not bother and perceive graphics intuitively. Data is available from 2004 onwards.
Also in Google Trends it is possible to determine in which part of the earth the request was most popular.
In general, under each picture there is a link to a set of graphs from where the picture was obtained. Fortunately, Google accepts parameters using the GET method.
Search public interest cycle
The above cycle is from 2009, i.e. the technology indicated by the blue circles should have already reached the “plateau of productivity”, and the white circles should have been on it so long ago. Take Web 2.0, SOA, RFID and Tablet PC. And what happened:
href
In all, "overcoming shortcomings" is still taking place except for tablets - these generally have some kind of anomalous pattern, which is probably related to mass advertising.
With regard to SOA, there was a crazy idea that overcoming is related to the transition from XML to JSON. As can be seen from the picture, early protocols such as CORBA are almost forgotten, and JSON is gaining popularity and has already overtaken XML.
href
As for me, there are two options - either the hype cycle does not work, or the display of “technology expectations” -> the number of related search queries does not work.
Separate software products, of course, are not technologies, but it cannot be excluded that the rush cycle is applicable to them. Of all the graphs viewed, the popularity curve of Google Chrome is most similar to the rush cycle:
href
Holivary themes
We turn to the most interesting. Google Trends gives you an extra point of view when choosing which language to learn, which software to use.
So, from the following picture it is obvious that to display 3D scenes in the browser, it is more promising to use WebGL, and not outdated VRML with heirs.
href
The following figure shows that from the above set it is most promising to learn Python. Although of course the presence of the intent factor.
herf
The graph of the search portals vividly illustrates the “oblivion” stage using the example of Altavista, which was once very popular.
href
According to the databases, we can say that SQL positions are losing, and NoSQL is gaining popularity, although NoSQL is still a long way from the SQL mastodons of the world.
The following two images show both worlds. For the scale in both images, the MongoDB curve is embedded in the same color.
href
href
Very surprised by the decline in the popularity of UML and the complete lack of interest in IDEF:
href
Also surprised by the dynamics of the popularity of sorting algorithms, which would seem to fluctuate around a constant, but no ... in 2005
the number of requests for these algorithms has decreased dramatically
href
Judging by the graphs obtained, the link between actual popularity and the number of requests is hardly durable. Especially controversial populations sorting. It is difficult to explain such a decline - whether it has increased the number of non-IT google users, or the counting algorithm has changed ...
In any case, Google Trends can serve as the source of an extra subsection in your report on the choice of new technology or software.
Good luck.
PS And yes, if you have an idea of ​​an interesting combination of graphs - add in the comments.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/234081/
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