Three stages of development of any service or something in common with McDonalds and IBM Watson
Smart people have long noticed that any service, be it coffee preparation or accounting services, goes through three distinct stages of development, with each one being inevitable. This is a very interesting and curious fact. I propose to try to reveal its nature, observe it with examples close to us and try to make small predictions about what should change in our life and according to this pattern.
So, what are these stages, you impatiently ask? I suggest not to hurry with the answer and try to derive them themselves, based on knowledge of the world and simple reflections.
')
The exciting, energizing and energizing effect of coffee beans was first noticed by the Ethiopian ancestors of the Oromo peoples. Legend has it that the shepherd Kaldim discovered this amazing property in the ninth century, accidentally noting how his goats briskly frolicked, after eating obscure red berries. However, the idea of ​​roasting coffee will come to humanity only after three hundred and fifty years, but for now our shepherd and his followers get a wonderful drink by boiling dried grain shells. Please note, we are witnessing the emergence of a new service, let's call it Coffee Making .
At this stage, only a few people are able to prepare a miraculous drink, knowledge of this is passed from mouth to mouth, there is no guaranteed reproduction, that is, what Caldim prepared today is absolutely not a fact that it will look like he will cook the day after tomorrow. And nothing about the fact that a completely different drink will come out from his friend Haile and can not speak. Let's call this stage Uniqueness .
What was the problem for eleven centuries after the discovery of Kaldim? The coffee recipe was passed from person to person, each preparing it differently. In your favorite place where you are accustomed to drinking in the mornings, an invigorating drink could be replaced by an employee, and with it the taste and the desired effect changed.
No one likes to take risks, we are all willing to pay for predictable results and guarantees, regardless of what we are talking about. Of course, any market hears this and at some point, when technological progress allows it, it moves on to the next stage, offering predictability and guarantees to the customer.
One of these transformations in our example in 1970 was made by an English teacher, Jerry Baldwin, throwing off over one and a half thousand bucks with a friend and opening a store selling and roasting coffee beans. So began a huge way to standardize the preparation of coffee . It was decided to put the feeling, which was sold to the visitor, on stream, so that no matter which establishment of the network you were in, you would receive a service of the same maximum level. The network of coffee houses spread like an epidemic and today has more than 19 thousand outlets, being in the territory of America, Canada, Japan, Great Britain and Russia.
But with all this scope, the service is standardized to the last. Clear procedures for preparing coffee and used coffee machines and cooking programs are described, rigid guidelines for interior design have been developed, uniform personnel clothing has been defined, and conversational modules have been created that are used when communicating with a visitor. It was decided what music should play and what marker your name is written on the glass with a drink. In the regulations on the choice of premises, there is even a strict requirement that the entrance door to the restaurant should go south or east, so that a visitor can enjoy the rays of the rising sun in the morning.
All this is done to ensure that when you go to one of tens of thousands of Starbucks coffee houses and order your favorite grande latte, you will get exactly the same taste and, most importantly, emotion, like in any other place on this network. So, we see that the service has been transformed, it has passed the standardization stage and now its supplier is ready to give guarantees and consistently reproduce the result.
Well, it seems that the service has become standard and predictable, it would seem, what else is needed? But after all, for my favorite taste, I need to go to the nearest coffee shop! And there is the human factor, a small mistake and the day may be spoiled. Now, if it were possible to deliver the service directly to the client home and be sure that he will receive exactly the taste and mood that the creator had planned ...
This was thought of in 1976 at Nestle, but after several unsuccessful attempts to approach this task, they were defeated. However, after 12 years, when the coffee market successfully entered the era of standardization, work continued. And very soon some interesting results appeared: in 1990, Nespresso came to the light with a boxed solution for making coffee.
Wait, wait, you say. Isn't ordinary plain coffee a boxed solution in our history? Of course, partly yes, but as a producer, you do not know how your client will prepare it, how much water it will pour, what temperature, or if the water will undergo the necessary treatment and purification. You do not know how long the bank was open and whether the taste was eroded. After all, this is not a user's problem, this is a problem of you, as a manufacturer, too much is solved regardless of you, and therefore it is impossible to be responsible for the final taste, and at the same time, for the user's feelings.
So back to the fact that the world offered Nespresso. They turned the Coffee Making service into a box solution by creating an capsule coffee machine. Let me tell you briefly how. The first idea is a deep integration of coffee beans and coffee machines, just like Apple does, connecting software and hardware. Nespresso licenses the companies for the production of coffee machines developed by them, which work only with their capsules, as well as produce coffee capsules themselves. Let's start the review with the latter.
What do you think is the most expensive in a coffee capsule for a manufacturer? No, not coffee or even delivery. The most expensive packaging. It is made of aluminum, which is why it costs its contents by a large margin. The capsule of coffee, designed for exactly one serving of drink, is sealed in an aluminum hermetically sealed container. This is done to ensure that coffee does not enter into chemical reactions with the container and retains its original taste. Next, coffee, prepared according to strict standards, guaranteeing taste, is poured into the capsule, and finally filled with inert gas (that's right, the interaction of coffee with air greatly changes its properties).
The next part of the magic is the coffee machine. When you buy a Nespresso machine, you buy an exact copy of the drink the way it was developed in the laboratory by leading experts in this field. Almost all machines are equipped with water treatment systems, because the manufacturer does not know what kind of water the user will flood, but the desired degree of purification and a certain level of salts and minerals are required for the desired taste. On the machine there is almost one button Prepare . The latest models of machines themselves recognize that a capsule is inserted in them (for different types of coffee, of course, different capsules). This means that the machine itself can decide, according to the program, how much water is required, how warm it is and how fast it passes through the capsule. It is honed down to the temperature profile of the water entering the capsule, which gives the most delicious drink.
We see how it was possible to fully materialize the service of making coffee . You buy a machine and capsules, press only one key and get a drink, by mass spectral analysis is almost the same as the creators did. In the company's line of hundreds of flavors, you can choose the one that you like and be sure that you always and everywhere get a drink, and with it the feeling that was loved at the first sip.
Surprisingly, it seems to work everywhere. I propose to take and analyze a few examples to get a feel for how this usually happens.
Yes, whatever. Take, for example, the services of hairdressers. Today they are actually in the first stage of development. When I come to the salon near the house, I never know until the end, with what hairstyle I leave. Every time I say the same thing, up to a word, and show my best photo, but the result is reminiscent of participation in the lottery. According to this trend, a decision should appear when I come to the hairdresser, my head is scanned, I choose a haircut from the catalog, solemnly say “Please, LS-276”, put my head in a big box, where a powerful vacuum cleaner flies up, and a small but fast and accurate laser in just a few minutes makes the length of each hair accurate to the millimeter, forming the hairstyle I ordered.
There are many such examples, I will not tell everything that I thought up myself over the long hours of thinking about it, but I will be glad if you write your thoughts in the comments, it is very interesting and curious.
If you are thinking of doing a small business or a startup and you still have no idea what might be fired, look at the services around you, think about what stage of development they are now and if this is one of the first, try to imagine what the same one might look like service in the next stages of development. The trick is that she will come there sooner or later, it is inevitable, just a matter of time. However, this idea is already in your head and you can be the first to implement it.
The market of services inevitably goes towards standardization and subsequent materialization. We welcome initiative and creativity in creative processes, searches, and solutions to non-standard tasks. However, in everyday household tasks, resorting to the services of other people and experts, we all want to avoid risks, want to have a guarantee of quality results, and we also need reproducible results, because only this way we can advise friends or use them a second time. There are still many areas in the world that are in the early stages of development, but these are not problems, these are interesting tasks that we can solve. I hope this article will help someone to look at things differently and understand another pattern.
PS I myself am engaged in a project that aims to transfer education to the next step. Education, almost unchanged since 1088, when the first universities opened. Today, in the twenty-first century, it should look completely different. We want to make a decision that will predict and guarantee learning outcomes. What everyone wants and what nobody has yet. But that's another story…
PPS This material was written based on the work of Sergey Sychev, published on the website triz-ri.ru .
So, what are these stages, you impatiently ask? I suggest not to hurry with the answer and try to derive them themselves, based on knowledge of the world and simple reflections.
')
Unique and unpredictable-reproducible. Stage one.
The exciting, energizing and energizing effect of coffee beans was first noticed by the Ethiopian ancestors of the Oromo peoples. Legend has it that the shepherd Kaldim discovered this amazing property in the ninth century, accidentally noting how his goats briskly frolicked, after eating obscure red berries. However, the idea of ​​roasting coffee will come to humanity only after three hundred and fifty years, but for now our shepherd and his followers get a wonderful drink by boiling dried grain shells. Please note, we are witnessing the emergence of a new service, let's call it Coffee Making .
At this stage, only a few people are able to prepare a miraculous drink, knowledge of this is passed from mouth to mouth, there is no guaranteed reproduction, that is, what Caldim prepared today is absolutely not a fact that it will look like he will cook the day after tomorrow. And nothing about the fact that a completely different drink will come out from his friend Haile and can not speak. Let's call this stage Uniqueness .
Standardization and warranty. Stage Two.
What was the problem for eleven centuries after the discovery of Kaldim? The coffee recipe was passed from person to person, each preparing it differently. In your favorite place where you are accustomed to drinking in the mornings, an invigorating drink could be replaced by an employee, and with it the taste and the desired effect changed.
No one likes to take risks, we are all willing to pay for predictable results and guarantees, regardless of what we are talking about. Of course, any market hears this and at some point, when technological progress allows it, it moves on to the next stage, offering predictability and guarantees to the customer.
One of these transformations in our example in 1970 was made by an English teacher, Jerry Baldwin, throwing off over one and a half thousand bucks with a friend and opening a store selling and roasting coffee beans. So began a huge way to standardize the preparation of coffee . It was decided to put the feeling, which was sold to the visitor, on stream, so that no matter which establishment of the network you were in, you would receive a service of the same maximum level. The network of coffee houses spread like an epidemic and today has more than 19 thousand outlets, being in the territory of America, Canada, Japan, Great Britain and Russia.
But with all this scope, the service is standardized to the last. Clear procedures for preparing coffee and used coffee machines and cooking programs are described, rigid guidelines for interior design have been developed, uniform personnel clothing has been defined, and conversational modules have been created that are used when communicating with a visitor. It was decided what music should play and what marker your name is written on the glass with a drink. In the regulations on the choice of premises, there is even a strict requirement that the entrance door to the restaurant should go south or east, so that a visitor can enjoy the rays of the rising sun in the morning.
All this is done to ensure that when you go to one of tens of thousands of Starbucks coffee houses and order your favorite grande latte, you will get exactly the same taste and, most importantly, emotion, like in any other place on this network. So, we see that the service has been transformed, it has passed the standardization stage and now its supplier is ready to give guarantees and consistently reproduce the result.
Materialization and Box solution. Stage Three.
Well, it seems that the service has become standard and predictable, it would seem, what else is needed? But after all, for my favorite taste, I need to go to the nearest coffee shop! And there is the human factor, a small mistake and the day may be spoiled. Now, if it were possible to deliver the service directly to the client home and be sure that he will receive exactly the taste and mood that the creator had planned ...
This was thought of in 1976 at Nestle, but after several unsuccessful attempts to approach this task, they were defeated. However, after 12 years, when the coffee market successfully entered the era of standardization, work continued. And very soon some interesting results appeared: in 1990, Nespresso came to the light with a boxed solution for making coffee.
Wait, wait, you say. Isn't ordinary plain coffee a boxed solution in our history? Of course, partly yes, but as a producer, you do not know how your client will prepare it, how much water it will pour, what temperature, or if the water will undergo the necessary treatment and purification. You do not know how long the bank was open and whether the taste was eroded. After all, this is not a user's problem, this is a problem of you, as a manufacturer, too much is solved regardless of you, and therefore it is impossible to be responsible for the final taste, and at the same time, for the user's feelings.
So back to the fact that the world offered Nespresso. They turned the Coffee Making service into a box solution by creating an capsule coffee machine. Let me tell you briefly how. The first idea is a deep integration of coffee beans and coffee machines, just like Apple does, connecting software and hardware. Nespresso licenses the companies for the production of coffee machines developed by them, which work only with their capsules, as well as produce coffee capsules themselves. Let's start the review with the latter.
What do you think is the most expensive in a coffee capsule for a manufacturer? No, not coffee or even delivery. The most expensive packaging. It is made of aluminum, which is why it costs its contents by a large margin. The capsule of coffee, designed for exactly one serving of drink, is sealed in an aluminum hermetically sealed container. This is done to ensure that coffee does not enter into chemical reactions with the container and retains its original taste. Next, coffee, prepared according to strict standards, guaranteeing taste, is poured into the capsule, and finally filled with inert gas (that's right, the interaction of coffee with air greatly changes its properties).
The next part of the magic is the coffee machine. When you buy a Nespresso machine, you buy an exact copy of the drink the way it was developed in the laboratory by leading experts in this field. Almost all machines are equipped with water treatment systems, because the manufacturer does not know what kind of water the user will flood, but the desired degree of purification and a certain level of salts and minerals are required for the desired taste. On the machine there is almost one button Prepare . The latest models of machines themselves recognize that a capsule is inserted in them (for different types of coffee, of course, different capsules). This means that the machine itself can decide, according to the program, how much water is required, how warm it is and how fast it passes through the capsule. It is honed down to the temperature profile of the water entering the capsule, which gives the most delicious drink.
We see how it was possible to fully materialize the service of making coffee . You buy a machine and capsules, press only one key and get a drink, by mass spectral analysis is almost the same as the creators did. In the company's line of hundreds of flavors, you can choose the one that you like and be sure that you always and everywhere get a drink, and with it the feeling that was loved at the first sip.
Does it just work with coffee?
Surprisingly, it seems to work everywhere. I propose to take and analyze a few examples to get a feel for how this usually happens.
Accounting services
- A unique phenomenon. Some people master the subtleties of office work and help others. Someone does it better, someone is worse, to find a bukhaletra you need to ask Oksana's friend, telling her that you are from Misha.
- Standardization. Accounting offices appear, employees are unified. Corporate training, assessment of work and quality control of the result are carried out; now you don’t need to ask the familiar name of a good accountant, you just have to go to a respectable company.
- Materialization. There are services, as My business. The service turns into a boxed solution and everyone can connect their bank account and fill in the required fields to receive documents issued according to the last letter of the law, as well as send them to the necessary authorities with one click of the mouse.
Credit Services
- A unique phenomenon. At the primitive bazaar, the rich are sitting with money, wanting to multiply them, borrowing at a percentage. They look at you, ask different questions, try to understand whether you will return the money to them. Each of them trains his skill, his perceptron, to recognize those who return the loan and who do not.
- Standardization. Open banks. Now the first formulas and checklists are being born that a person needs to ask in order to make a decision on lending. You no longer need the magic of knowledge, in the bank you will find a pretty girl who will cutely ask questions and, according to standard instructions, will decide to give you money.
- Materialization. Solutions are born, such as TCS-Bank. When filling out a questionnaire for a credit card, the algorithm looks at the speed with which you type the words in the registration form. Automaton requests are sent to your possession of the property. The computer checks whether you are registered, looking for information about you on social networks. Everything, from spelling errors in your status to your friends list and the music you are listening to, goes to the scoring function. The person no longer takes part in this, the decision on lending becomes fully boxed. It is able to predict with a given probability whether you will return the money, not looking at rain, or at the time of day, and even at the illness of any employee.
Medical services
- A unique phenomenon. Long time ago, healers appeared who noticed that by applying a certain grass to a sore spot, more often the person became better. However, their knowledge was scattered, not systematized, each of them was unique and not replicable.
- Standardization. The science of medicine is born, knowledge is accumulated and systematized, medical schools and institutes appear. Now the doctor's profession is standardized, international exams and certification programs appear that ensure that your doctor has a certain level of knowledge of the subject area.
- Materialization. IBM is developing a software product called Watson that, after analyzing hundreds of thousands of cancer histories, can diagnose certain types of cancer more accurately than the best doctors in the world. And the most important thing is that the probability of its successful diagnosis is known and does not depend on anything. The world received materialization, a box solution where it seemed impossible - in medicine.
Catering services
- A unique phenomenon. People found interesting combinations of products giving birth to new tastes. There were craftsmen who dedicated themselves to this and opened up a whole world of wonderful taste combinations. But they were unique, if Alice cooked deliciously, it was almost impossible to get the same tasty dish without her.
- Standardization. Began to occur standardization, there are collections of recipes. Now Alice can describe the sequence of her actions as an instruction on paper, she is replicated, and other talented girls will try to repeat a delicious dish at home. There comes standardization in nutrition.
- Materialization. Today, each of us sees an example of successful materialization in this market of services - BigMac in McDonalds. This is not a recipe, this is a specific thing, a boxed product. Whatever country of the world you are in, at any time of the day you can buy this bun and be sure that it is a complete copy of the one you like.
And what can soon go to the next level?
Yes, whatever. Take, for example, the services of hairdressers. Today they are actually in the first stage of development. When I come to the salon near the house, I never know until the end, with what hairstyle I leave. Every time I say the same thing, up to a word, and show my best photo, but the result is reminiscent of participation in the lottery. According to this trend, a decision should appear when I come to the hairdresser, my head is scanned, I choose a haircut from the catalog, solemnly say “Please, LS-276”, put my head in a big box, where a powerful vacuum cleaner flies up, and a small but fast and accurate laser in just a few minutes makes the length of each hair accurate to the millimeter, forming the hairstyle I ordered.
There are many such examples, I will not tell everything that I thought up myself over the long hours of thinking about it, but I will be glad if you write your thoughts in the comments, it is very interesting and curious.
Why do I need to know all this?
If you are thinking of doing a small business or a startup and you still have no idea what might be fired, look at the services around you, think about what stage of development they are now and if this is one of the first, try to imagine what the same one might look like service in the next stages of development. The trick is that she will come there sooner or later, it is inevitable, just a matter of time. However, this idea is already in your head and you can be the first to implement it.
As a conclusion
The market of services inevitably goes towards standardization and subsequent materialization. We welcome initiative and creativity in creative processes, searches, and solutions to non-standard tasks. However, in everyday household tasks, resorting to the services of other people and experts, we all want to avoid risks, want to have a guarantee of quality results, and we also need reproducible results, because only this way we can advise friends or use them a second time. There are still many areas in the world that are in the early stages of development, but these are not problems, these are interesting tasks that we can solve. I hope this article will help someone to look at things differently and understand another pattern.
PS I myself am engaged in a project that aims to transfer education to the next step. Education, almost unchanged since 1088, when the first universities opened. Today, in the twenty-first century, it should look completely different. We want to make a decision that will predict and guarantee learning outcomes. What everyone wants and what nobody has yet. But that's another story…
PPS This material was written based on the work of Sergey Sychev, published on the website triz-ri.ru .
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/228795/
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