Why success stories are so useless
Misanthropists will like this post: after all, it’s about the fact that there is nothing more useless than someone else’s success. Now, if there was a place where people honestly shared their plans, and then it would be possible to follow their implementation step by step and record not only good luck, but also failures as a result ... Oh, I write in a blog of such a project. Go to “SmartProgress”, select the Goals menu, sort “failed”, add the “best of all time” parameter - and look at the list of the loudest files on the project .
Since each story is accompanied by a detailed description, it is possible to disassemble the causes of other people's failures in sufficient detail - as far as users allow themselves to be frank. After all, we do not want to make the mistake that everyone who studies other people's success stories make, forgetting the stories of failures - the mistake of the survivor.
A textbook example from the history of the Second World War: as a mathematician of Romanian origin, Abraham Wald helped American bomber pilots more often return to the base alive. The losses of the bombers were catastrophic - one successful hit could turn a engineering marvel into a mass grave. But it was impossible to load the bomber with armor indefinitely - after all, they also had to carry bombs. Therefore, it was necessary to choose. Observing bomber bullets riddled with bullets returning to the base, the army authorities decided to reinforce those parts of the corps that most resembled a colander: the wings, the lower part of the corps and the tail section near the rifle turret - it is obvious that they were hit more often.
')
But Wald drew the attention of the command to the fact that the real threat was not the damage with which the aircraft returned home, but those that destroyed them - and which therefore could not be studied. If a plane can fly with a bullet hole in the wing - you need to look where there are no holes - perhaps precisely because they did not get there, the crew and I can return alive.
This is the most popular example illustrating the so-called “survivor’s error” (survivorship bias) - a compilation of data based only on successful results.
Reading success stories and other people's successes, we infect with different emotions - from envy and anger to optimism and enthusiasm. But it is a waste of mental strength. After all, the story of someone else's success is worthless without data on how many people have failed on the same path.
For each success story there is a succession of failures of other people who failed to become kings of the mountain - usually the biographies of the winners slander the details, making it clear that there is no need to be interested in losers. But only until you yourself turn out to be an episode of someone else's success story.
This happens with us every day, but very few people draw conclusions from this. Passion for other people's success stories is simply dangerous: you either spend time implementing other people's bad advice, or fall into the trap of the illusion that your mistakes are in fact the road to success.
I did not have time to think about how best to illustrate this thesis, how I came across the publication “ 12 things that successful people do before breakfast ” - yes, this goodness in the Internet is in bulk.
By the way, it’s curious: as soon as I needed to find a success story, Facebook gave me the right link. This phenomenon, known as the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon - once having heard a new word, you will begin to meet it everywhere - doesn’t it remind you of anything? But this is another example of survivorship bias: we cannot say how often we met this word before we learned it precisely because we did not know it. For the time being, the unknown words are simply in the same cemetery of downed bombers, slipping in the gaps of our attention like the negro in this photo . Simply put, the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon does not exist - or rather, it is just a special case of the survivorship bias, which deserves a separate name.
12 things that successful people do before breakfast - a brief squeeze out of a whole (and quite popular!) Book on this topic. Let's look at the 12 morning habits of successful people through the prism of the survivor's error:
- tell it to workers at a construction site or to truck drivers - getting up at 5 am is common for a working person, but not all of them know that this leads them to success, and not to chronic lack of sleep and painful old age.
- The habit is definitely useful. Distributed, for example, in China - the result of Soviet influence. Did it really bring the Chinese worker closer to the success of Steve Jobs? Well, except that they both did iPhones, yes.
- morning is definitely a great time to do the most important things. Like day. Or evening. Or even night. That's why they are the most important. Each person has his own important affairs, some people deal with them in the morning - and this is the secret of success?
- An excellent item that says that a hobby or dream project in the morning distinguishes successful people. This point seems difficult - because to fulfill it, you must first overcome the first 3, and then there are 8 more on the list. Probably, therefore, it may seem tempting to someone. But in general, there is no magic in making time for a hobby in the morning. And just advice to have a hobby brings us back to the sacramental: I do a startup in my spare time - where is my success?
- a popular focus in any recommendations for achieving success or just a happy life. This is useful advice for harmonizing life: so that, having achieved success, you will not be emotionally devastated. But let's be honest with ourselves - people who spend time with their families far more than people who have succeeded. A large Iranian mother will confirm this to you.
- A great item, by the way. It does not matter that in the article this is explained by the fact that a successful person is stupidly not up to that evening after the working day. It is served as the secret of success anyway. "Honey, we want to pay the mortgage early?"
At any business breakfast, hosted by a successful person, there are from 1 to 10 less successful colleagues. The score, it turns out, is not in their favor. Typical "survivor error."
A joke is known on this subject: "We know about the mind and kindness of dolphins from the stories of swimmers whom they pushed to the shore - but we will never know anything from those whom they pushed in the opposite direction."
- joyful "Woo-hoo!" Resounded from the esoteric parties. It does not matter that the majority of their visitors are people lost in life: Condoleezza Rice does yoga? Probably why she became the US Secretary of State. Jobs, however, is not enough for everyone.
Yes, those who like to read mantras are definitely a holiday today. Autotraining is one of the most common examples of survival mistakes. If all women on the planet repeat: “I am the most charming, I am the most attractive” - one of them will win the “Miss Universe” contest. This is inevitable, because the competition is something annual.
A few words about how luck works: “The Ghost Hunter,” Joseph Banks Rhine, claimed that he had managed to select several people with extrasensory abilities from hundreds of subjects. His statement was based on the incredible results that they showed in guessing Zener cards. The error of the survivor is obvious here: he himself admits that he experienced hundreds of people. Obviously, as the subjects grow, the likelihood that one of them guesses more cards than others increases.
Advice from the category of "an online survey showed that 100% of participants use the Internet" - it is obvious that all successful people are planning important things. The problem is that even the most unfortunate people plan important things. Just their plans do not come true.
- I check my mail every fifteen minutes. When can I start checking myself in the Forbes list?
- and here is joy on the street of office plankton, which everyone reads the news. Most likely, this item paid for "Tape.ru" - because there is nothing more enjoyable than to assume that if you are informed like Richard Branson, then it is as successful as he.
A simple change of point of view shows that all 12 habits of successful people are completely indistinguishable from the habits of ordinary people or losers. Is it really a whole book, a popular article, and a bunch of translations really useless? It turns out that way. It can be worse: imagine that there would not have been the clever Romanian head of Abraham Wald at the disposal of American generals - and they would have begun to reinforce the wings of their bombers with armor, replenishing the aviation cemetery with planes with flawlessly whole wings.
It's time to reconsider the attitude towards people who like to hear about other people's failures. This is not necessarily a pathetic misanthrope. Quite possibly this is a reasonable person.
PS If you do not have an account in Habré, you can express your opinion on this article in our blog - SmartTalks
Since each story is accompanied by a detailed description, it is possible to disassemble the causes of other people's failures in sufficient detail - as far as users allow themselves to be frank. After all, we do not want to make the mistake that everyone who studies other people's success stories make, forgetting the stories of failures - the mistake of the survivor.
A textbook example from the history of the Second World War: as a mathematician of Romanian origin, Abraham Wald helped American bomber pilots more often return to the base alive. The losses of the bombers were catastrophic - one successful hit could turn a engineering marvel into a mass grave. But it was impossible to load the bomber with armor indefinitely - after all, they also had to carry bombs. Therefore, it was necessary to choose. Observing bomber bullets riddled with bullets returning to the base, the army authorities decided to reinforce those parts of the corps that most resembled a colander: the wings, the lower part of the corps and the tail section near the rifle turret - it is obvious that they were hit more often.
')
But Wald drew the attention of the command to the fact that the real threat was not the damage with which the aircraft returned home, but those that destroyed them - and which therefore could not be studied. If a plane can fly with a bullet hole in the wing - you need to look where there are no holes - perhaps precisely because they did not get there, the crew and I can return alive.
This is the most popular example illustrating the so-called “survivor’s error” (survivorship bias) - a compilation of data based only on successful results.
Reading success stories and other people's successes, we infect with different emotions - from envy and anger to optimism and enthusiasm. But it is a waste of mental strength. After all, the story of someone else's success is worthless without data on how many people have failed on the same path.
For each success story there is a succession of failures of other people who failed to become kings of the mountain - usually the biographies of the winners slander the details, making it clear that there is no need to be interested in losers. But only until you yourself turn out to be an episode of someone else's success story.
This happens with us every day, but very few people draw conclusions from this. Passion for other people's success stories is simply dangerous: you either spend time implementing other people's bad advice, or fall into the trap of the illusion that your mistakes are in fact the road to success.
I did not have time to think about how best to illustrate this thesis, how I came across the publication “ 12 things that successful people do before breakfast ” - yes, this goodness in the Internet is in bulk.
By the way, it’s curious: as soon as I needed to find a success story, Facebook gave me the right link. This phenomenon, known as the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon - once having heard a new word, you will begin to meet it everywhere - doesn’t it remind you of anything? But this is another example of survivorship bias: we cannot say how often we met this word before we learned it precisely because we did not know it. For the time being, the unknown words are simply in the same cemetery of downed bombers, slipping in the gaps of our attention like the negro in this photo . Simply put, the Baader-Meinhof phenomenon does not exist - or rather, it is just a special case of the survivorship bias, which deserves a separate name.
So, article.
12 things that successful people do before breakfast - a brief squeeze out of a whole (and quite popular!) Book on this topic. Let's look at the 12 morning habits of successful people through the prism of the survivor's error:
1. Wake up early
- tell it to workers at a construction site or to truck drivers - getting up at 5 am is common for a working person, but not all of them know that this leads them to success, and not to chronic lack of sleep and painful old age.
2. Do exercises
- The habit is definitely useful. Distributed, for example, in China - the result of Soviet influence. Did it really bring the Chinese worker closer to the success of Steve Jobs? Well, except that they both did iPhones, yes.
3. Work on major projects
- morning is definitely a great time to do the most important things. Like day. Or evening. Or even night. That's why they are the most important. Each person has his own important affairs, some people deal with them in the morning - and this is the secret of success?
4. Work on personal projects
- An excellent item that says that a hobby or dream project in the morning distinguishes successful people. This point seems difficult - because to fulfill it, you must first overcome the first 3, and then there are 8 more on the list. Probably, therefore, it may seem tempting to someone. But in general, there is no magic in making time for a hobby in the morning. And just advice to have a hobby brings us back to the sacramental: I do a startup in my spare time - where is my success?
5. Spend time with your family
- a popular focus in any recommendations for achieving success or just a happy life. This is useful advice for harmonizing life: so that, having achieved success, you will not be emotionally devastated. But let's be honest with ourselves - people who spend time with their families far more than people who have succeeded. A large Iranian mother will confirm this to you.
6. Have sex
- A great item, by the way. It does not matter that in the article this is explained by the fact that a successful person is stupidly not up to that evening after the working day. It is served as the secret of success anyway. "Honey, we want to pay the mortgage early?"
7. Arrange business breakfasts with colleagues.
At any business breakfast, hosted by a successful person, there are from 1 to 10 less successful colleagues. The score, it turns out, is not in their favor. Typical "survivor error."
A joke is known on this subject: "We know about the mind and kindness of dolphins from the stories of swimmers whom they pushed to the shore - but we will never know anything from those whom they pushed in the opposite direction."
8. Meditate
- joyful "Woo-hoo!" Resounded from the esoteric parties. It does not matter that the majority of their visitors are people lost in life: Condoleezza Rice does yoga? Probably why she became the US Secretary of State. Jobs, however, is not enough for everyone.
9. Write down things for which are grateful.
Yes, those who like to read mantras are definitely a holiday today. Autotraining is one of the most common examples of survival mistakes. If all women on the planet repeat: “I am the most charming, I am the most attractive” - one of them will win the “Miss Universe” contest. This is inevitable, because the competition is something annual.
A few words about how luck works: “The Ghost Hunter,” Joseph Banks Rhine, claimed that he had managed to select several people with extrasensory abilities from hundreds of subjects. His statement was based on the incredible results that they showed in guessing Zener cards. The error of the survivor is obvious here: he himself admits that he experienced hundreds of people. Obviously, as the subjects grow, the likelihood that one of them guesses more cards than others increases.
10. Plan strategically important things on a fresh mind.
Advice from the category of "an online survey showed that 100% of participants use the Internet" - it is obvious that all successful people are planning important things. The problem is that even the most unfortunate people plan important things. Just their plans do not come true.
11. Check mail
- I check my mail every fifteen minutes. When can I start checking myself in the Forbes list?
12. Read news
- and here is joy on the street of office plankton, which everyone reads the news. Most likely, this item paid for "Tape.ru" - because there is nothing more enjoyable than to assume that if you are informed like Richard Branson, then it is as successful as he.
A simple change of point of view shows that all 12 habits of successful people are completely indistinguishable from the habits of ordinary people or losers. Is it really a whole book, a popular article, and a bunch of translations really useless? It turns out that way. It can be worse: imagine that there would not have been the clever Romanian head of Abraham Wald at the disposal of American generals - and they would have begun to reinforce the wings of their bombers with armor, replenishing the aviation cemetery with planes with flawlessly whole wings.
- Are there any complaints about buttons? - Stitched tightly, do not tear.
It's time to reconsider the attitude towards people who like to hear about other people's failures. This is not necessarily a pathetic misanthrope. Quite possibly this is a reasonable person.
PS If you do not have an account in Habré, you can express your opinion on this article in our blog - SmartTalks
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/225625/
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