Programmer as a source of evil and the impact of robotics on society
The software assumes more and more routine functions. Many processes are improving, becoming more efficient, faster. And what happens to the people who performed these functions earlier? They lose their jobs, retrain and do something else. This process is as old as technical progress. In essence, this is technical progress. So the number of agricultural workers, schwei, weavers and many others decreased. The caber and the stableman's professions disappeared, but the driver and automaster appeared. Just think, one cycle more, one less. However, all this had previously happened relatively smoothly and affected a small percentage of the population. And now we have something new on a very visible horizon. New is not in essence, but in size.
You probably read about Google. And Audi is trying something like that. Yes, everyone wants to go there. The success of Google is simply the most famous. Google robobom successfully demonstrated driving in practice on real roads. It is pretty safe to say that we personally will not steer at retirement age. On top of that - a significant part of the components of the car is created exclusively as a driver interface. They all will not be needed. Headlights. Mirrors Pedals. Yes, the windshield with brushes, in the end. Naturally some mechanical drives will be needed, but usually the robot is much less demanding than humans. Moreover, for sure it will be possible to send a car to pick up laundry from the laundry, a small tricycle will bring a pizza without a driver (if not a drone, but for now let ground something).
NB: I live in the states, so that the household details and statistics will be state.
The American Trucking Association reports 3,500,000 professional truck drivers. About 5 million taxi drivers and limousine drivers (these are not those long ones from the cinema, but simply cars called by phone). It is also possible to roughly estimate another 1.5 million different other people, in fact, who earn a cab or whose work makes driving a huge part of the labor. In total, we are talking about about 10,000,000 people in the United States. The US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics claims that there are approximately 155,000,000 people working in the state. That is roughly one of 15-16 working people will lose their job in the very near future and all this will be in a rather short period.
')
In addition to the direct loss of driving jobs, we also have indirect ones. First, physically, we need fewer machines. Today, the husband leaves for work at 9, at 8 = 55 his car gets in the parking lot and stands there until 6, and the wife goes for groceries at 11 on the second car. That is, they have two cars. And if the husband's car could go back to 10 home, ride his wife, and then in the evening go for her husband? And after all, a taxi devoid of the most expensive component - human labor, becomes much cheaper. Offices like ZipCar.com, so they feel luxurious, and with a robot they will generally flourish. Trucks are stopping to sleep, eat, pee the driver, and the robot does not have such needs. The number of cars will decrease. Consequently, vacancies for their production, maintenance and sale will disappear. Let's be optimistic, we will ignore this number of potential unemployed at all!
Now we still have to add on intrafamily driving. About 60 million children in states under 17 cannot drive a car. That is, parents bring them to the courses, swimming, to friends. Let an average of 30 minutes a day per child. That is equivalent to about 2.5% of total working time, or about 3,750,000 people fired.
But actually the statistics are even worse. The average American spends 25 minutes on the way to work and another 25 from her. Well, in the store there to call, somewhere else. It turns out an hour per person. Everyday. Now this person in the car can write, read, play. It is not entirely fair to count this time as purely working, for we say the waiter is not a programmer - he cannot earn extra money in his car. But the clock will still be released. This gives us another 5% or the equivalent of 7 million in the labor market.
And now we’ll add all the deliveries, mail, call in for ... Well, rounding the three previous points, we’ll get free time for about 10,000,000 people in the labor market. Summing up: 10 million on the street and another plus about the same amount of pressure on the market in the form of excess free time among workers. The current state unemployment rate is 7.3%. In general, this is about three times higher than the record figure since 1948 and slightly more than during the Great Depression. Agree, quite a sharp blow to the market. And all this was done (done) by some thousand or other programmers.
So what will these extra people do? In England in the early 1800s in a similar situation, Luddites smashed weaving machines. Well, that was a long time ago. And now we are different. At first sight. And the second one is being smashed today . Of course this is a single case, but indicative. This article describes the situation more statistically. Uber, having increased the efficiency of transportation on an insignificant hair, was instantly attacked by modern Luddites. People have not changed. Throughout the history of mankind, machines saved man from monotonous labor and freed him of time for creative work. Only they did it slowly and little by little. And then immediately I! There is a small nuance: the average person, in particular, let's say the average taxi driver, is not capable of putting it mildly. Well, or not capable enough to make a living only for them. For taxi drivers: I believe that you personally can. And your friends can. But still, on average, the picture is somewhat different. The robot, that look, will free the person more time for creativity than the average person is able to create. And too fast for social adaptation.
However, it is unlikely that progress will affect only auto-driving. Probably a similar phenomenon will take place in other industries. That is, to those 10 + 10 million will have to add on a lot more. And where will such a number of forced idlers go? If they are not fed, they will smash the rest. If you feed ... - no, well, it's expensive. This is read in every family on parasite planted. Although it is in this direction that thought moves in Switzerland, it seems, with their idea of 2500 francs each . But actually when a freeloader tumbles into your house, you want to throw him out. And the “programmers”, as a class in the Marxian sense, will apparently be just those to whom they tumble. But haha! What can they do against the state machine! Uh-uh ... send to the mother dog . And who is our mother? Corporation. And who controls this corporation? What class representatives (again, in the almost Marxist sense of the word)? Anyway, corporations can fight quite successfully. The British East India Company kept all of India perfectly under the fingernail. And today such a phenomenon takes place . You know, in the third world, in countries with high unemployment. Somewhere far away, not with us! (or "?"). After all, exactly the same robotization will occur in armament. And just as well, millions of policemen and soldiers can be replaced by a couple of thousand programmers.
And summing up: suppose within 10 years the usual place of work has lost 20% of the population. And without any prospects to find a new one. There is no demand for routine work, but they are not able to do anything else. They will, clearly, be indignant. What would be more effective: plug them with a sandwich or a bullet? Or maybe there is a third, more technological way?
The most massive robots
You probably read about Google. And Audi is trying something like that. Yes, everyone wants to go there. The success of Google is simply the most famous. Google robobom successfully demonstrated driving in practice on real roads. It is pretty safe to say that we personally will not steer at retirement age. On top of that - a significant part of the components of the car is created exclusively as a driver interface. They all will not be needed. Headlights. Mirrors Pedals. Yes, the windshield with brushes, in the end. Naturally some mechanical drives will be needed, but usually the robot is much less demanding than humans. Moreover, for sure it will be possible to send a car to pick up laundry from the laundry, a small tricycle will bring a pizza without a driver (if not a drone, but for now let ground something).
Some calculations and statistics
NB: I live in the states, so that the household details and statistics will be state.
The American Trucking Association reports 3,500,000 professional truck drivers. About 5 million taxi drivers and limousine drivers (these are not those long ones from the cinema, but simply cars called by phone). It is also possible to roughly estimate another 1.5 million different other people, in fact, who earn a cab or whose work makes driving a huge part of the labor. In total, we are talking about about 10,000,000 people in the United States. The US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics claims that there are approximately 155,000,000 people working in the state. That is roughly one of 15-16 working people will lose their job in the very near future and all this will be in a rather short period.
')
In addition to the direct loss of driving jobs, we also have indirect ones. First, physically, we need fewer machines. Today, the husband leaves for work at 9, at 8 = 55 his car gets in the parking lot and stands there until 6, and the wife goes for groceries at 11 on the second car. That is, they have two cars. And if the husband's car could go back to 10 home, ride his wife, and then in the evening go for her husband? And after all, a taxi devoid of the most expensive component - human labor, becomes much cheaper. Offices like ZipCar.com, so they feel luxurious, and with a robot they will generally flourish. Trucks are stopping to sleep, eat, pee the driver, and the robot does not have such needs. The number of cars will decrease. Consequently, vacancies for their production, maintenance and sale will disappear. Let's be optimistic, we will ignore this number of potential unemployed at all!
Now we still have to add on intrafamily driving. About 60 million children in states under 17 cannot drive a car. That is, parents bring them to the courses, swimming, to friends. Let an average of 30 minutes a day per child. That is equivalent to about 2.5% of total working time, or about 3,750,000 people fired.
But actually the statistics are even worse. The average American spends 25 minutes on the way to work and another 25 from her. Well, in the store there to call, somewhere else. It turns out an hour per person. Everyday. Now this person in the car can write, read, play. It is not entirely fair to count this time as purely working, for we say the waiter is not a programmer - he cannot earn extra money in his car. But the clock will still be released. This gives us another 5% or the equivalent of 7 million in the labor market.
And now we’ll add all the deliveries, mail, call in for ... Well, rounding the three previous points, we’ll get free time for about 10,000,000 people in the labor market. Summing up: 10 million on the street and another plus about the same amount of pressure on the market in the form of excess free time among workers. The current state unemployment rate is 7.3%. In general, this is about three times higher than the record figure since 1948 and slightly more than during the Great Depression. Agree, quite a sharp blow to the market. And all this was done (done) by some thousand or other programmers.
And that will be?
So what will these extra people do? In England in the early 1800s in a similar situation, Luddites smashed weaving machines. Well, that was a long time ago. And now we are different. At first sight. And the second one is being smashed today . Of course this is a single case, but indicative. This article describes the situation more statistically. Uber, having increased the efficiency of transportation on an insignificant hair, was instantly attacked by modern Luddites. People have not changed. Throughout the history of mankind, machines saved man from monotonous labor and freed him of time for creative work. Only they did it slowly and little by little. And then immediately I! There is a small nuance: the average person, in particular, let's say the average taxi driver, is not capable of putting it mildly. Well, or not capable enough to make a living only for them. For taxi drivers: I believe that you personally can. And your friends can. But still, on average, the picture is somewhat different. The robot, that look, will free the person more time for creativity than the average person is able to create. And too fast for social adaptation.
However, it is unlikely that progress will affect only auto-driving. Probably a similar phenomenon will take place in other industries. That is, to those 10 + 10 million will have to add on a lot more. And where will such a number of forced idlers go? If they are not fed, they will smash the rest. If you feed ... - no, well, it's expensive. This is read in every family on parasite planted. Although it is in this direction that thought moves in Switzerland, it seems, with their idea of 2500 francs each . But actually when a freeloader tumbles into your house, you want to throw him out. And the “programmers”, as a class in the Marxian sense, will apparently be just those to whom they tumble. But haha! What can they do against the state machine! Uh-uh ... send to the mother dog . And who is our mother? Corporation. And who controls this corporation? What class representatives (again, in the almost Marxist sense of the word)? Anyway, corporations can fight quite successfully. The British East India Company kept all of India perfectly under the fingernail. And today such a phenomenon takes place . You know, in the third world, in countries with high unemployment. Somewhere far away, not with us! (or "?"). After all, exactly the same robotization will occur in armament. And just as well, millions of policemen and soldiers can be replaced by a couple of thousand programmers.
I don't know myself
And summing up: suppose within 10 years the usual place of work has lost 20% of the population. And without any prospects to find a new one. There is no demand for routine work, but they are not able to do anything else. They will, clearly, be indignant. What would be more effective: plug them with a sandwich or a bullet? Or maybe there is a third, more technological way?
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/210024/
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