Now they say so often about flights to Mars that people sometimes confuse several independent projects. Sometimes you hear that Mars One is a NASA project, and Inspiration Mars is going to mine the gold that Curiosity has found. All this, of course, fiction. Therefore, I will try to decompose all Martian dreams on the shelves, so that there is a universal cheat sheet for all occasions. I will make a reservation in advance: this review reflects the current situation. I do not exclude future evolution and possible mergers of the projects being described or the emergence of new ones.
So let's start in chronological order:
Mars direct
Cost : $ 30 billion. Idea : Sending an expedition to Mars in two stages: first, an unmanned rocket flies, which is to return people from Mars. It has a supply of hydrogen, and the fuel for the return journey must create itself using local carbon from the atmosphere. The second descent module with pilots provides flight to Mars and life on the surface. Implementation : within 10 years from the moment of approval of the program. ')
The first non-state project of a manned flight to Mars was the American Mars Direct, which was proposed by former engineer of Locheed Martin Robert Zubrin in the 90s.
This project is very detailed in the technical part, and is designed for implementation based on the current technical level of civilization. Although he has several "narrow" moments, but they are in principle solvable, if we apply science and ingenuity. I will not describe it in detail, and all the details can be found in this film, translated by the habrip user paulpotseluev , and approved by Robert (he speaks a little Russian).
From myself I will note some of the characteristics of Mars Direct. Despite the non-state project, Robert Zubrin expects that it can be implemented only by the efforts of the national space agencies. For lobbying and inspiration by Mars potential voters of the United States, the Mars Society was created.
Zubrin almost succeeded when the Bush administration announced the launch of the ambitious Constellation program. The program included the development of a new interplanetary spacecraft, the construction of a base on the moon, and a flyby of Mars. Unfortunately, due to the exorbitant high cost of the Constellation and the budget crisis in the United States, the program was curtailed. All that was left of her was Orion, the SLS rocket, and some props for shooting parody clips:
Realizing that the United States alone Mars Direct will not pull, Robert Zubrin reoriented the idea to implement the entire world community. For these purposes, open international offices of the Martian community. He himself recently came to Russia, gave lectures , talked about the project, and his " We could do it with goosebumps ". However, he actually left with nothing , although he laid the foundations for the future creation of the Russian branch of the Martian community.
Despite the prospects of the project (this is one of the most robust and well-developed in the current list) Mars Direct makes me feel old-fashioned, I feel the approach of the 90s: hope for the state / va; multi-page, although talented inspirational, books; the lack of crowdfunding and crowdsourcing that the Internet provides today. In general, the project was born at the dawn of the Internet and practically does not provide for the implementation of its many resources. Against the background of a series of projects in recent years, Zubrin looks like a powerful dinosaur, which, although it is not going to die out, radiates powerful energy, but it feels like its era has passed.
Mars one
Cost : $ 6 billion. Idea : Non-state expedition to one end, because a one-way flight reduces the cost of the entire program. Funding is expected through the organization of a reality show on Mars and the sale of broadcasting rights to television channels. In addition: sponsorship, advertising, crowdfunding. Implementation : 2024 (a possible transfer was mentioned for 2026)
Mars One attracts many with its romance, potential accessibility for all comers, the idea of ​​heroic death in the name of the progress of all mankind and, as a result, unfading glory ... You can say if Mars Direct is a project of professionals, then Mars One is a project of enthusiasts. Mars One is the most critical of astronautics. Professionals do not take it seriously. The main claims can be honored in the blog of the editor of the journal "News of Cosmonautics" Alexander Ilyin. A separate complaint, which is often expressed in relation to Mars One - it is suspected that this is a banal scam.
The project, and its coverage, really resembles the "Joint-Stock Company of Giant Plants", but I personally trust Basu. It is enough to look into his fanatical eyes in order to understand that he was blown away on the idea of ​​a flight to Mars, and the whole project was organized with only one purpose - to fly there himself.
I plan to write separately my opinion about the Mars One. Now, I can only say that I support the project, despite its obvious utopianism.
Colony of Elon Mask
Cost : $ 40 billion dollars. Idea : the creation of a huge alien colony numbering several tens of thousands of people who independently paid the cost of the flight and residence on Mars. To accomplish this goal, the cost of removing cargo into Earth orbit is reduced, powerful interplanetary ships are created. Implementation : in the coming decades.
The most incredible project for the exploration of Mars does not even have a name yet, is not worked out even at the level of Mars One, and is known only from an interview with his ideologue and initiator businessman Elon Musk. Paradoxically, but on the way to the implementation of this project, the largest path of all the ideas under consideration has been covered.
It began with the fact that the suddenly grown rich creator of Pay Pal decided to inspire humanity to further exploration of space and, above all, Mars. Curiously, his first idea was the blooming apple trees on Mars! Okay, about apple trees and glossed over, but he seriously thought about launching a flask with a plant and its life support system to Mars, only to show the world the first flower grown under the Martian sun. He suggested launching a flask with the Russian-Ukrainian conversion rocket Dnepr. Then he wondered why our rockets are so cheap, and American so expensive. From the conclusions of the space company was born SpaceX. In general, this is an example of how you can grow from a semi-branded idea, if not a flower on Mars, then the coolest startup with a billion-dollar package of contracts.
In the wake of SpaceX's success, Elon Musk outlined his thoughts on the future of the Martian city (!). Yes, he is not exchanging small things, four colonists are not his level, therefore he is considering a settlement project of 80 thousand people. The cost of one ticket is claimed at $ 500 thousand dollars.
True, his assessment of the cost of such a giant settlement (and the delivery of people there) makes one doubt its adequacy. However, looking at his perseverance and obvious success in the implementation of his plans, I want to say: “Go on, Elon, I am already saving for a ticket”.
Even if you believe skeptics that Mask about Mars is only fantasizing, you cannot take away that incredible talent with which he managed to motivate employees in his enterprise. Just look at the careers page:
People at his factory are not just building a rocket , but laying a road to Mars.
Mars Inspiration
Cost : $ 3 billion. Idea : Flight of a manned spacecraft to approach Mars along a flight path without landing, and return to Earth. The duration of the flight is 501 days. Implementation : 2018
Dennis Tito is an old man in the commercial exploration of space (and he himself is not young). He became famous as the first space tourist when he flew in 2001 at the age of 60. On Earth, he is a multimillionaire and a major investor.
In early 2013, he announced his proposal, due to inspire the American nation to new achievements in space: Inspiration Mars (Inspiration Mars). A spacecraft, with two pilots, must fly in a heliocentric orbit, where the trajectory on one side crosses the near-earth orbit, and on the other, passes 160 km behind Mars. That is, travelers will fly over the night side of the Red Planet, and during the rendezvous and removal will be able to observe its phases:
This is the simplest, cheapest and most realizable program of the listed ( description , rationale ). True and the most boring. Useful for science only in assessing the state of the human body under the long influence of weightlessness and cosmic radiation.
The funny thing is that Inspiration Mars has already become part of conspirological mythology. Someone with a rich imagination and lack of basic knowledge, it seemed that this project appeared after the Curiosity rover found gold on Mars. The absurdity of this idea is obvious: he did not find gold; the cost of any pinch of Martian soil is orders of magnitude greater than the cost of earth gold, but even if Curiosity had found a turbine pyramid, Mars Inspiration would have helped neither the United States nor humanity. We can look from above and from satellites, and the pilots of the Inspiration will not be able to. However, this idea found supporters on both sides of the ocean.
Despite the obvious simplicity of Inspiration Mars, several serious obstacles stand in the way of its implementation: you need to start the device either in 2018 or in 2031 (or later). The launch is scheduled for 2018, but so far there is no ship, no rocket, no money. Recently, the reason why Tito has not announced fundraising since February and has not heard of any movement since February has become known. The businessman’s calculation was for NASA to take the project under its wing and start implementing it. Approval has not yet been received from the space agency. The reason is obvious: one of the main principles of NASA is the safety of the crew, and this mission requires people who are ready for the role of experimental kamikaze rabbits. However, Tito found such, but NASA is not ready to take responsibility for their death.
In theory, Roscosmos is able to organize such an expedition, but Tito needs to inspire the American nation, and Roskosmos doesn’t need anything at all ...
NASA
Cost : Not determined, but is considered much more Mars Direct. The idea : to carry out a series of flights to Mars. First, without landing, with the exit into orbit and remote control of robots on the surface. Possible landing on Phobos. Then landing on Mars and return. Realization : the 2030s ... Probably.
As already mentioned, the Constellation project was closed by not offering in return on Mars anything but the Curiosity and MSL-2020 rovers. However, Obama has repeatedly stated the US plans to send people into the orbit of Mars, and then to the surface. First, the date was called the 2030th year, then the 2030th. The current head of NASA, Charles Bolden, is a fan of Mars himself, but he cannot jump higher than his head, Congress allocates budget money, and there is a very "lunar" lobby. In general, NASA, like Roscosmos, is now experiencing a crisis of self-determination: everyone understands that it’s time to take a step further than the ISS, but it’s scary and incomprehensible to everyone what to do there.
In the summer of 2013, NASA published a list of astronauts who are promised expeditions “into orbit, asteroid, and Mars” ( low-Earth orbit, an asteroid and Mars ). In fact, this is just a list of candidates for the crew of the future Orion spacecraft, and no one knows where it will fly. But trolling the media and the public was a success. NASA's list was published a month after the start of receiving applications for the Mars One project, so some thought that these astronauts would fly to Mars at one end with Bass Landdorp, which, of course, does not correspond to reality. And, I'm afraid, by the time NASA is seriously going to Mars, this group will be a bit old.
I think the best thing we can hope for from NASA is a flight along Tito’s orbit in 2031.
Russia
Cost : ten olympiards rubles Idea : astronauts and dreamers say that apple trees will bloom on Mars. Realization : God will give by 2050
A curious situation takes place in our home. Russia has no mission to Mars. Moreover, nobody even tries to offer something serious (at least I have not heard anything). At the same time, we are developing and conducting biological experiments, which, in the future, will be useful in a manned expedition to Mars.
If NASA is seriously advancing in technology: the Orion interplanetary spacecraft and the SLS rocket, then ours have an advantage in human experiments. It sounds incongruous, but it is precisely with our astronauts behind the work on the "World" and the ISS in modes that NASA simply would not allow for its people. In addition to the record terms of work in orbit, a famous experiment was conducted in Russia - Mars-500. Recently, another interesting small experiment was conducted: the astronauts, immediately after landing with the ISS, began to imitate work in spacesuits on Mars after landing.
Something in which Russia bypasses and "iron". For Mars-500, for example, they created the real Orlan-E spacesuit. Seriously, only we already have a spacesuit to go to the surface of Mars (however, any spacesuit suitable for going into space is suitable for this).
Research Center. Keldysh is developing a megawatt-class space nuclear reactor for an electric rocket propulsion system, they have already finished their draft design (naturally, they do not show anything). And in Lytkarino they are going to build a test bench “to study the thrust and controllability of direct-flow engines, as well as fuel consumption and aerodynamics. In addition, during the tests, “non-stationary conditions” will be simulated, in particular “engine behavior under the conditions of the atmosphere of Mars”.
The new head of Roscosmos, too, seems to be a "Martian." About the superracket, that's talking . But we have much to talk, look at the case.
In general, in Russia there is an interesting activity there, but in the absence of a unified strategy as a whole - a standing swamp. Fly to the ISS? Everything is working? So do not touch.
This is the current picture in the world: many ideas have appeared, much more is said about Mars than, say, five years ago, but no specifics, and the twenty-tenth century exchanged the courtyard of the 21st century.
What to do?
Anyone who has the desire and ability can go to work in astronautics or related industries, to develop science and technology, bringing the future closer. In Russia, there is now a shortage of personnel in the industry, and the example of Elon Musk shows that it is not necessary to be a space engineer to aspire to space. You might think about private astronautics, but the example of the Selenohod is not inspiring.
On the other hand, we are the public. In accordance with the theory of social contract, we can form your order to the state. Of course, the theory is far from an objective reality, especially Russian, but there is a chance to be heard. You can start with a simple letter to Roskosmos or higher. This is if there is a desire to see an astronaut on Mars, not an astronaut.
To promote the ideas of the international exploration of Mars, it is planned to create a Russian branch of the Martian community . In reality, 2.5 people are currently engaged in this, and so far there is a rudimentary state there, so any help will not hurt (If you want to help, contact Cholgaa ).