Forecast of key areas for the development of online services 2020-2030
Author: media expert Askar Tuganbayev, 10.27.2013, mail@tuganbaev.ruIntroduction
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For the last 20 years, the main commercial task of the Internet (as well as other media) was in determining user preferences and shaping offline sales through the specified targeting of media and contextual advertising. The Internet was used to accumulate profile information about users in online media consumption, communications and search. The obtained socio-demographic information, along with defined interests, was used by online and offline commercial structures to direct the consumer to sales channels and to form a purchase event.
It is logical to assume that the development of the commercial engine of the online environment will occur in the same direction due to a more efficient formation of sales for each user. To do this, it is necessary to more accurately determine consumer preferences, both global and momentary. The main technological drivers in this case are - 1) more accurate recognition and description of consumed content with analysis of its interest-tags, brand tags and customized psycho-characteristics of individual scenes and their sequences, bypassing the existing common metadata in favor of personal content projections, 2) clarifying geo - user context with resolution up to centimeters of physical position, gaze direction and limb operation, 3) operational biometric measurement of the consumer’s condition - current levels of activity, attention, health, tone, etc. to determine biological conditions and short-term needs, with the accumulation of physical consumption profiles and activities.
Technology
Geo-accuracy - in the coming years, significant efforts by hardware manufacturers, software products, online services and service providers will be aimed at improving the accuracy of determining the metric parameters of a user's physical offline activity for effective interaction with new interfaces (gestures, voice, look) and more accurate contextual interaction in the formation of offline consumption. A user from a material point on the map will turn into a three-dimensional object interacting with an interface map in closed and open spaces with a readable visual field and subject environment.
Biometrics — identification and transmission for real-time analysis of the user's basic biometric indicators — respiration, pulse, attention, tone, reaction rate, and symptoms of indisposition — will become important factors determining daily consumption — amid the increasing complexity of the technological environment, volume growth, and constant speed. information exchange and a significant increase in life expectancy against the background of a multiple increase in the quality of consumption (life).
Video recognition - a sharp multiple increase in the number of produced and consumed video, caused by the development of communication channels, an increase in the number of sources (including mobile devices, fixed cameras, cars and glasses) and the need for quick search and video navigation, will lead to the inevitable shortage of video - metadata and their insufficiency for unambiguous automated processing of video streams in the interests of each individual consumer. The technology of automatic parsing (parsing) of video (including real-time and faster) will be required to determine locations, personalities, items, brands, event types, etc. The resulting data sequences can be used as when building relevant personal media consumption. , and in the systems of daily monitoring, management and information.
Instruments
Smart clothes - A natural source of updated local spatial data of a consumer is his clothes, provided that appropriate sensors and controllers are inserted into it. Shoes, outerwear and accessories (bags, glasses, umbrellas, canes, jewelry) can be used for precise positioning of the limbs and the user's head in the virtual space to take into account the obtained data when managing interfaces, interactive media consumption and geocontext commodity consumption.
Diagnostics - as a source of biometric data can be devices designed to inform the user or remote medical staff about the current state of the body, as well as sports, dietary and other wearable devices related to maintaining a healthy lifestyle and controlling calories consumed and consumed.
Augmented reality - wearable miniature cameras used in clothing, glasses, hats, cars, etc. can be used to receive, analyze and supplement a user's personal video environment. The resulting video sequence, disassembled into components in real time, will allow you to optimize contextual information, media and commodity consumption.
Services
The search for clothing - an important manifestation of sociality in the present and near future is the choice of clothing. In this case, there are no recorded algorithms and schemes for automating the process of selecting clothing for the consumer. However, in the professional environment of manufacturers and distributors, there is a hierarchical system of rules for recommending styles, brands and models based on typical consumer patterns and their socio-demographic characteristics. Building an online search system, selecting and recommending clothing with a significant product and marketing offline component will create a system base for the future control of geo-contextual clothing-information personal streams.
Branded sociality - a popular tool for personal tagging of social characteristics of the consumer are consumed brands. The personal consumption history of branded goods and services allows to significantly optimize the processes of recommending and shaping future consumption. For the accumulation of such a history, online gaming services of brand binding to the consumer, loyalty marketing programs, social photo services (pinterest, instagram, etc.) with the possibility of acquaintances based on complementary personal brand profiles, as well as the development and implementation can be used. Personal accounting systems for consumed brands when disposing of goods.
The gastronomical community is an important aspect of sociality and the manifestation of personal preferences - food and cooking. Building a social service around cooking and food consumption allows you to accumulate significant personal data, optimize the process of recommending consumption, and further improve your biometric user profiles.
Geo-sociality - the geo-contextual history of user consumption is easiest to accumulate, analyze, predict and form using geo-social services created for communication, media and commodity consumption based on geo-contextual information of service providers and geymofication of consumption logging as part of marketing programs loyalty
Acquaintance of similar - future socialization systems will use as input data not only information specified by the user and accumulated as a result of online media consumption (as it is now), but - mainly - will be based on the history of the participants' real offline activity - their movement, commodity and offline media consumption, as well as physical geo-contextual activity and biometric data.
Video recommendations — from metadata to what is happening in the frame — existing recommender video services are built on consciously organized data — manufacturers and aggregators metadata, viewing history, user data, editorial chains, etc. This method of content selection is not very suitable in the conditions of the library's excess, even less can be used when consuming interactively generated complex metacontent and can hardly be successfully applied when navigating an infinite number of video streams generated in real time. In this situation, it is necessary to be able to automatically determine the locations, personnels and objects in the frame (including their commercial characteristics), the nature of the events in the video and other psycho-physical characteristics of personal perception for each user.
Offline recommendations - in the next 10-20 years, data traffic from device to device and from person to device will significantly exceed the traffic consumed and produced directly by people, and the number of one-time communication sessions and the amount of information processed by one user will many times exceed the physical capabilities of a person to control them. Under these conditions, it will be necessary to create geo-context mechanisms for predicting and caching for offline user activity in managing devices and interfaces around it, media, information, and product consumption based on artificial intelligence systems and the accumulation of data on the user's personal activity. It will be necessary to create and maintain an operating reality management system - the
Reality Operating System (ROS) - in order to monitor and control the numerous devices, sensors and controllers that improve the quality of life of the future.
Conclusion
Offline recommendation geo-social systemThus, it can be assumed that commodity producers, service providers and consumers in the coming years will need the emergence of a social service that provides geo-contextual exchange of media, communication and advisory information in real-time and linked to offline activities for stimulating and organizing processes. management, entertainment and consumption. To build such a service, it is necessary to further develop technologies of artificial intelligence, accurate geo-positioning, video recognition and biometric control. In addition, you need additional high-speed communication channels with total coverage and mobile devices of a new level of performance with the possibility of surround control of the surrounding space and biometric data. At the same time, control over geo-mobile consumption of communication services, positioning, payment systems, etc., is of strategic importance, since an information system built on this data can not only determine the basis of commercial interactions of all market participants, but can also become a critical point of vulnerability. society of the future.
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