One forecast given 15 years ago
To recall this forecast prompted me to post "15 things of today, which our children will not find . "
The author of the forecast is the founder of the company “Demos” David Izgiyevich. The forecast was given in an article devoted to the decade "Demos" and published in December 1998.
I would like to bring this forecast here in order to see how accurate it was.
Ps . I know that crosshosting is not welcome in Habré, but I could not help but cite this text in full. I just allowed myself to exclude details that are not significant in my opinion.
In any case, the original can be read at news.demos.su/private/demos.html
In my notes on the history of Demos, I strongly want to talk about the fact that everyone who read them is somehow PARTICIPATED to the Internet, feeds on them and thinks about it. And, for sure, one of these people will become Number One star in this area.
')
Will it be the author of a unique program? Will it be the developer of a unique piece of hardware or a unique method? Or will it be a unique businessman? I do not know. But I see from the comments - all interests are reduced to Internet technologies. Well, of course, the technology will constantly evolve, there will be breakthroughs, for example, such as ICQ (by the way, today it is the second product by distribution after Windows).
The question, however, is that the Internet is much more than just technology. I undertake to make a few strange judgments. To begin with, the chicken never understands the taste of scrambled eggs ... and I really want to go to the side of those who eat scrambled eggs ...
Money they will have the sea ... Where from? Of course, not from the sale of connections (most likely, it will connect to the Internet and use it for free, just as we are listening to the radio), and not even from the development and maintenance of websites, banners, etc. The money will be from trade and advertising. Later, money from television and all entertainment will be added ...
Some simple evidence. In the US, there is such a compass amazon.com - it only sells books and music discs (though there are literally tens of millions in the database of both). Well, in general, this is what we call E-commerce. Shares of this company rose in price from 20 dollars to 470 for 1 year ... Now, however, began to fall - overheated. Another eBay.com company (I ask you to say exactly in English :) also jumped from $ 18 to $ 300, in only 7 months ... Our beloved Yahoo! His shares for the same year reached 400 dollars. Every month several new companies from the Internet appear on the stock exchange, and the shares are immediately snapped up. What completely kills - all these companies show meager profits, or even even losses. Analysts are shocked and constantly predict severe disappointment to investors, but stocks are rising and rising. And this is not the madness of the Americans. They have a nose. The same booms were on the shares of automotive companies, manufacturers of semiconductors, computers, televisions, cell phones. And what, exactly, does their scent suggest?
ON THE INTERNET EVERYTHING IS COST EXPENSIVE THAN THE STORE. Once more, it means more profitable. Why more? You came to the site and saw the meat grinder that you need. Pressed the button, paid, three days later you brought the meat grinder home. And you will not go to the store to compare the price! There is no time, and there is no buzz ... People pay for convenience and the buzz of a great choice at home - such a virtual store is EVERYTHING at home ... Americans love to pay for service (convenience), I have a feeling that there are only two businesses in the US - service and everything what is not service ...
So, the Internet has fallen into the sphere of American life (and therefore consciousness), it means that all national managers will be thrown at this line of activity - they know how. More precisely - the manager - the basis of American prosperity.
Where it leads? The Internet in the USA will belong to three or four monsters. Two or three already exist - this is AOL, WorldCom, possibly Microsoft, but not by itself, but in the person of Teledesic (this is LLC (LLC), Bill G. has about 35% of the shares there). Three or four years (maybe faster) these monsters will “paint” America (both north and south), then they will come to Europe and buy everything in the bud (according to my calculations, Europe now even lags behind Russia, I mean the Internet) and CAN LOOK INTO RUSSIA - a handful of small millionaires will remain from our providers (person 5-10) ...
The next phase of the participation of managers is to turn the Internet into McDonald's! - a typical site, a typical site, a typical voice of the person on duty on the phone - about clothes, advertising, etc., I do not speak.
And this is for reflection, gentlemen programmers - try to introduce a new dish in McDonald’s. No, we set the task smaller - try adding a button to the cleaner's suit ... Russian bureaucrats will seem like petty beggars - you will get, as V. Antonov put it, “American scoop” and keep in mind “we have everything big in Texas”!
We add a tabular processor to the browser, the rest is there and flash it into a chip worth $ 20. Well, almost Nintendo!
Such a figovine completely kills the OS on personal machines (by the way, look at Gecko from Netskeyp). Why do you need a personal computer, when you are given a personal page on the site ... And on this site there is everything and software complexes and databases and multimedia tools - downloaded and rejoice. We add that there all the software is always in an upgraded state ... and advice on any program can be obtained immediately (ICQ). Why buy Microsoft Office for $ 400 when you can rent it online for ridiculous money ... Nah, I didn't think of anything. Watch out for National Semiconductor. They bought a company in Israel that developed a hybrid analog-to-digital integrated circuit - the whole PC in one chip. A chip smaller than PII, standard plugs take up more space (it means the standards will change). We always knew that the future was in analogue machines - they work in real time.
The programmers had just really gotten to the object (object-oriented programs) - in analog machines it was simply impossible to do otherwise - well, everything is really new, it is well forgotten old ...
No router - no internet. Here you can Vadim Antonov for 200 lectures to read. While in this place heaps Cisco money in rows (she bought out 3COM) and there is no competition. Any fresh idea in this business is millions of dollars in profits ...
An A4-size TFT fig with a built-in radio modem — her picture has already appeared in Popular Scince N2, 1999 (www.popsci.com). Do not think that there are not enough frequencies (there is white noise and orthogonal polynomials), do not think that it is expensive - I know for sure on Beeline, each new cell phone in the second one hundred thousand is cheaper than wired - there are no costs for the “last mile” - Cable telephony costs for the last mile grow in proportion to the number of telephones, in radio and cellular telephony they simply do not exist.
Believe me, I have, in my opinion, two copyright certificates on information compression devices. See, Gates has invested in Teledesic. Do not think that this is a new company - it is already more than eight years old ... During this time, the company has spent about three billion dollars on research and development. And the founders in the company are not weak - Boeing, Motorola, Gates, McCoy, some Saudi sheikh and the company’s task is “very simple” - to give the Internet user 2 megabytes / second at any point on earth just as much as digital television needs ... What did they say about backbones? Yes, and it will die as useless. In order not to distract you with the story about Teledesic, go to www.teledesic.com there, by the way, you can get a job - take everyone who is worth something ... In this regard, it is advisable to pay attention to how NT develops - from Gates for Microsoft has only one way to survive - to make NT the main nodal system - why does it need so much money, where does it stack and when will our racketeers get to it?
Banks will buy the Internet or the Internet will buy banks? Now the stock and financial markets and the technology of working on them are changing at the root. Powerful, well-organized e-merchants with paper, money, gold, etc. appeared. All mutual funds, brokerage companies are experiencing a severe crisis of customer confidence.
THE CUSTOMER NOW CAN MAKE ORDERS FOR PURCHASE AND SALE OF PAPER, to form an investment portfolio, to work in real time of the exchange, which was previously unavailable. For example, the electronic broker E * Trade (www.etrade.com) in 1998 alone collected about 600 thousand clients (Schwab has a million 600 thousand clients), each of them pays $ 20 per transaction. Approximately one fifth (about 100 thousand) are actively working - from one to five transactions per day - in other words, the company receives approximately $ 50 per day from each of them! This is only part of the income. Clients keep their money and stocks with an electronic broker, he, in turn, works like a regular bank - as we say, “runs the money”, credits clients for stocks, etc. So what, you say. But what. Electronic broker has a profit greater than ordinary banks! A matter of time - they are buying up the entire financial system of the world ...
Clinton and Gore themselves put a twisted pair in school - all of America saw it. Why did it happen? Talk to any image maker - he will confirm - success in elections depends on individual preference - there is a motivation - they will elect Zhirinovsky as president of the United States. If every family has access to the Internet, then there are enormous possibilities for the formation of motives for the behavior of the voter. Politicians have already understood this. We are the first - Nemtsov. Why am I writing about this - ISPs will take over part of the budgets of election campaigns for themselves, will later dictate conditions to politicians ... put forward their own people, "jamming" on others ...
The more sites, the higher the entropy - zagazhivanie information - this is a headache for a person of the 21st century. I can say - any work aimed at reducing the entropy of the network has a chance of prosperity. Search servers of the modern type do not solve the problem. We need tools to search for information on fuzzy queries, we need information cleaning robots, we need personal tools for updating data. The Internet will be useful only when it is clean and everything is laid out on the shelves ...
Davidov
December 1998
The author of the forecast is the founder of the company “Demos” David Izgiyevich. The forecast was given in an article devoted to the decade "Demos" and published in December 1998.
I would like to bring this forecast here in order to see how accurate it was.
Ps . I know that crosshosting is not welcome in Habré, but I could not help but cite this text in full. I just allowed myself to exclude details that are not significant in my opinion.
In any case, the original can be read at news.demos.su/private/demos.html
The Internet. Fantasies on the subject
In my notes on the history of Demos, I strongly want to talk about the fact that everyone who read them is somehow PARTICIPATED to the Internet, feeds on them and thinks about it. And, for sure, one of these people will become Number One star in this area.
')
Will it be the author of a unique program? Will it be the developer of a unique piece of hardware or a unique method? Or will it be a unique businessman? I do not know. But I see from the comments - all interests are reduced to Internet technologies. Well, of course, the technology will constantly evolve, there will be breakthroughs, for example, such as ICQ (by the way, today it is the second product by distribution after Windows).
The question, however, is that the Internet is much more than just technology. I undertake to make a few strange judgments. To begin with, the chicken never understands the taste of scrambled eggs ... and I really want to go to the side of those who eat scrambled eggs ...
1. All media (radio, newspapers, magazines, television) will pass into the hands of the ISP
Money they will have the sea ... Where from? Of course, not from the sale of connections (most likely, it will connect to the Internet and use it for free, just as we are listening to the radio), and not even from the development and maintenance of websites, banners, etc. The money will be from trade and advertising. Later, money from television and all entertainment will be added ...
Some simple evidence. In the US, there is such a compass amazon.com - it only sells books and music discs (though there are literally tens of millions in the database of both). Well, in general, this is what we call E-commerce. Shares of this company rose in price from 20 dollars to 470 for 1 year ... Now, however, began to fall - overheated. Another eBay.com company (I ask you to say exactly in English :) also jumped from $ 18 to $ 300, in only 7 months ... Our beloved Yahoo! His shares for the same year reached 400 dollars. Every month several new companies from the Internet appear on the stock exchange, and the shares are immediately snapped up. What completely kills - all these companies show meager profits, or even even losses. Analysts are shocked and constantly predict severe disappointment to investors, but stocks are rising and rising. And this is not the madness of the Americans. They have a nose. The same booms were on the shares of automotive companies, manufacturers of semiconductors, computers, televisions, cell phones. And what, exactly, does their scent suggest?
ON THE INTERNET EVERYTHING IS COST EXPENSIVE THAN THE STORE. Once more, it means more profitable. Why more? You came to the site and saw the meat grinder that you need. Pressed the button, paid, three days later you brought the meat grinder home. And you will not go to the store to compare the price! There is no time, and there is no buzz ... People pay for convenience and the buzz of a great choice at home - such a virtual store is EVERYTHING at home ... Americans love to pay for service (convenience), I have a feeling that there are only two businesses in the US - service and everything what is not service ...
So, the Internet has fallen into the sphere of American life (and therefore consciousness), it means that all national managers will be thrown at this line of activity - they know how. More precisely - the manager - the basis of American prosperity.
2. So, the Internet becomes a place of application of the forces of the most powerful branch of the USA - managers
Where it leads? The Internet in the USA will belong to three or four monsters. Two or three already exist - this is AOL, WorldCom, possibly Microsoft, but not by itself, but in the person of Teledesic (this is LLC (LLC), Bill G. has about 35% of the shares there). Three or four years (maybe faster) these monsters will “paint” America (both north and south), then they will come to Europe and buy everything in the bud (according to my calculations, Europe now even lags behind Russia, I mean the Internet) and CAN LOOK INTO RUSSIA - a handful of small millionaires will remain from our providers (person 5-10) ...
The next phase of the participation of managers is to turn the Internet into McDonald's! - a typical site, a typical site, a typical voice of the person on duty on the phone - about clothes, advertising, etc., I do not speak.
And this is for reflection, gentlemen programmers - try to introduce a new dish in McDonald’s. No, we set the task smaller - try adding a button to the cleaner's suit ... Russian bureaucrats will seem like petty beggars - you will get, as V. Antonov put it, “American scoop” and keep in mind “we have everything big in Texas”!
3. The Internet will kill the PC ... and, of course, Windows. In any case, it will be another Windows ...
We add a tabular processor to the browser, the rest is there and flash it into a chip worth $ 20. Well, almost Nintendo!
Such a figovine completely kills the OS on personal machines (by the way, look at Gecko from Netskeyp). Why do you need a personal computer, when you are given a personal page on the site ... And on this site there is everything and software complexes and databases and multimedia tools - downloaded and rejoice. We add that there all the software is always in an upgraded state ... and advice on any program can be obtained immediately (ICQ). Why buy Microsoft Office for $ 400 when you can rent it online for ridiculous money ... Nah, I didn't think of anything. Watch out for National Semiconductor. They bought a company in Israel that developed a hybrid analog-to-digital integrated circuit - the whole PC in one chip. A chip smaller than PII, standard plugs take up more space (it means the standards will change). We always knew that the future was in analogue machines - they work in real time.
The programmers had just really gotten to the object (object-oriented programs) - in analog machines it was simply impossible to do otherwise - well, everything is really new, it is well forgotten old ...
4. The most promising piece of hardware is the router.
No router - no internet. Here you can Vadim Antonov for 200 lectures to read. While in this place heaps Cisco money in rows (she bought out 3COM) and there is no competition. Any fresh idea in this business is millions of dollars in profits ...
5. The Internet will become mobile
An A4-size TFT fig with a built-in radio modem — her picture has already appeared in Popular Scince N2, 1999 (www.popsci.com). Do not think that there are not enough frequencies (there is white noise and orthogonal polynomials), do not think that it is expensive - I know for sure on Beeline, each new cell phone in the second one hundred thousand is cheaper than wired - there are no costs for the “last mile” - Cable telephony costs for the last mile grow in proportion to the number of telephones, in radio and cellular telephony they simply do not exist.
6. All push technologies and IP telephony from poverty and the evil one - everything will die ...
Believe me, I have, in my opinion, two copyright certificates on information compression devices. See, Gates has invested in Teledesic. Do not think that this is a new company - it is already more than eight years old ... During this time, the company has spent about three billion dollars on research and development. And the founders in the company are not weak - Boeing, Motorola, Gates, McCoy, some Saudi sheikh and the company’s task is “very simple” - to give the Internet user 2 megabytes / second at any point on earth just as much as digital television needs ... What did they say about backbones? Yes, and it will die as useless. In order not to distract you with the story about Teledesic, go to www.teledesic.com there, by the way, you can get a job - take everyone who is worth something ... In this regard, it is advisable to pay attention to how NT develops - from Gates for Microsoft has only one way to survive - to make NT the main nodal system - why does it need so much money, where does it stack and when will our racketeers get to it?
7. Who will buy whom?
Banks will buy the Internet or the Internet will buy banks? Now the stock and financial markets and the technology of working on them are changing at the root. Powerful, well-organized e-merchants with paper, money, gold, etc. appeared. All mutual funds, brokerage companies are experiencing a severe crisis of customer confidence.
THE CUSTOMER NOW CAN MAKE ORDERS FOR PURCHASE AND SALE OF PAPER, to form an investment portfolio, to work in real time of the exchange, which was previously unavailable. For example, the electronic broker E * Trade (www.etrade.com) in 1998 alone collected about 600 thousand clients (Schwab has a million 600 thousand clients), each of them pays $ 20 per transaction. Approximately one fifth (about 100 thousand) are actively working - from one to five transactions per day - in other words, the company receives approximately $ 50 per day from each of them! This is only part of the income. Clients keep their money and stocks with an electronic broker, he, in turn, works like a regular bank - as we say, “runs the money”, credits clients for stocks, etc. So what, you say. But what. Electronic broker has a profit greater than ordinary banks! A matter of time - they are buying up the entire financial system of the world ...
8. We will vote at home
Clinton and Gore themselves put a twisted pair in school - all of America saw it. Why did it happen? Talk to any image maker - he will confirm - success in elections depends on individual preference - there is a motivation - they will elect Zhirinovsky as president of the United States. If every family has access to the Internet, then there are enormous possibilities for the formation of motives for the behavior of the voter. Politicians have already understood this. We are the first - Nemtsov. Why am I writing about this - ISPs will take over part of the budgets of election campaigns for themselves, will later dictate conditions to politicians ... put forward their own people, "jamming" on others ...
9. The Internet is killing itself
The more sites, the higher the entropy - zagazhivanie information - this is a headache for a person of the 21st century. I can say - any work aimed at reducing the entropy of the network has a chance of prosperity. Search servers of the modern type do not solve the problem. We need tools to search for information on fuzzy queries, we need information cleaning robots, we need personal tools for updating data. The Internet will be useful only when it is clean and everything is laid out on the shelves ...
Davidov
December 1998
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/206568/
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