Forecast of the development of the music industry on the Internet

Many people say that forecasting is an ignoble occupation, I absolutely disagree with this. And therefore I will try to make a fairly accurate forecast of the future development of the music industry on the Internet. Moreover, below I will describe in detail how I imagine the technical implementation of my forecast.

Basic Postulates:

• music will be free (legally);
• Musicians and distributors will earn on advertising and paid services;
• major players involved in the distribution of music can be counted on the fingers, perhaps there will be 1 giant (like now YouTube, Google Search, Windows in their fields).

Implementation:

Let's call our main music distributor “MuzArhiv”. This organization will enter into agreements with musicians (music labels, publishers) and post their recordings on their servers. Each file download will be paid. (Already, DepositFiles.com pays its partners $ 0.005 for each download of any file, so I think MuzArchive will be able to pay up to $ 0.05 for each download, and maybe more). Musicians on their sites will lay out links to download songs from the site "MuzArhiva." Each file will have its permanent address where it will be stored "forever."
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Of course, “MuzArhiv” will tie a social network, all ratings and paid services (increase in download speed, etc.) to its file storage. Musicians will replenish this vault, receiving in return a little (or a lot) of money and, most importantly, popularity. And the popularity is the multi-thousand concerts and good advertising contracts. And everyone will be happy!

There will be no need to distribute music in P2P networks, send by mail, record and transmit on CDs and flash drives. Do you want to share a song with a friend, just give a link to it on the MuzArhiva website.

Problems that may arise:

• it may be difficult to convince musicians to restrain their appetites and agree to receive a few cents for each download, instead of the usual few bucks for a sold disc. But it will be downloaded hundreds of times more often than buying discs, and the problem will be solved by itself;
• There may be problems finding advertisers, although this is unlikely;
• filling the base is not an easy task, especially at first. It is advisable to immediately get at their disposal millions of songs. The experience of qtrax.com shows that this is possible ( UPD: it turns out Qtrax has deceived everyone a little , at the time of publication I didn’t know about it. And yet, apparently, they managed to come to an agreement with one of the 4 largest labels) ;
• competition can have a negative impact, although this is unlikely. If there are several large legal archives, a search engine will appear that searches for them.

Summing up all this, I want to say that only one of the current Internet giants will be able to implement such a system. As far as I know, Yahoo is already working in this direction. Wait and see ….

PS: many things may have seemed obvious to you, moreover, some of the things described are already implemented, but not quite as I imagine it to be. Do not judge strictly, this is my first habratopik :)