The future will look like this: everywhere there will be high-speed, cheap wireless Internet, operating systems, including those on mobile devices, will look more like a browser, instead of programs there will be online cloud services, various devices from refrigerators to glasses will communicate with each other via the Internet and represent a unified software and hardware environment (cloud OS).
In such a world, users will pay for using online services and, possibly, for devices. And by themselves, devices without reference to online services will have little value. Online infrastructure is what really matters. Already in the world there are thousands of manufacturers of smartphones, tablets, laptops, etc., but the use of the absolute majority of these devices is associated with the use of operating systems, programs or services from just three companies: Apple, Google, Microsoft.
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Point of view
Apple started as a manufacturer of devices, but eventually became a vertically integrated holding company that deals independently with everything. Innovations in devices and their own unified software infrastructure allowed them to take significant shares in different markets. Realizing the importance of its own online infrastructure, Apple has recently been trying to remove dependence on Google and is developing its own online services: Apple Maps, iCloud, iWork for iCloud, etc.
Google started exactly as an online service and their online infrastructure: Google Search, Google Maps, Gmail, G +, YouTube, Google Drive, Google Calendar, Google Translate, etc. is currently the most functional. The recent consolidation of all services (single login and terms of use) say that the company does not slow down the pace of movement in this direction. A little ahead of time, the company released a prototype of the future OS - Chrome OS and is experimenting with a new model of selling devices on it - a subscription. By purchasing Android and leaving it open, Google has locked out most of the mobile device market. Google also entered the device market through partnership with LG and Samsung and the purchase of Motorolla.
Microsoft's main business is Office and Windows. With the fall in sales of desktops, the company is forced to look for new markets. D & S (Devices and Services) - this is the new Microsoft strategy. Starting from Windows 8 and Windows Phone, the concept of a unified OS is evolving. Creating an Xbox, Surface and Nokia Takeover - entering the device market. Azure, cloudy Outlook, Bing (as the most real challenger, able to drop Google Search engines from the Olympus search engine), Office 365, and others - quite a good competition for Google’s online infrastructure.
The path of these companies is different and until recently they practically did not compete with each other. But every year they are found in more and more of the market and more and more they become similar to each other. The main competitive advantage in this battle is the online infrastructure.
Consequences
It is possible that a fourth company capable of making them global competition may not appear. Neither Samsung, nor Oracle, nor anyone else has sufficient resources to enter this “market”. The barrier is very high.
It is possible that, following the maps, Apple will create its own search engine, otherwise they will not be able to completely remove the dependence on Google and their online infrastructure will not be complete.
Microsoft will not get rid of Bing and will not sell the Xbox. For them, it will be a step back. It is foolish to take the positions that were conquered by such great difficulty.
Microsoft may eventually make Office 365 free under the pressure of free iWork for iCloud and Google Docs. Office from the main business will become just an element of online infrastructure.
PS: the article is not intended to describe in detail all the diversity, intricacies and subtleties of IT-businesses, but is a greasy smear that draws the main trend. The article has a lot of simplifications, if you wish, you can find fault with almost every word. The reason for the appearance of the article is the recent
rumors that Microsoft could get rid of Bing and sell the Xbox, which, from the point of view of the author, is at least
doubtful .