The tragedy of communities in the real world or coupon fever-2
Do you know what tragedy communities are? This is a term from the theory of games, a situation where participants in the game are overly consuming any resource, and harm themselves and others. But at the same time, a single participant, without consuming the resource, will not receive any gain at all, while the resource consumption will not practically decrease - the other consumers will not change their behavior. Nothing like?
Of course, the recent hype with coupons for ebay.
For a start, remember what the tragedy of communities is. You can see, for example, in the wiki . And you can not watch.
The tragedy of the village New Fangs Samara region
The village itself lives, breeds goats, sheep, cows, and earns those. Milk is sold, wool knitted socks, and sold in the nearest town. They graze animals on a nearby pasture, a big meadow like this, where there is enough grass for everyone. Enough so that every inhabitant, when the number of his animals increases, does not even think about its restriction. What for? There is enough grass, while one half of the meadow is eaten, the second has time to grow. And a man has an additional income: two cows instead of one - this is twice as much milk. And there will be no harm - there are 100 houses in the village, 100 cows, and even if one person has 5 cows instead of one, this is only an increase of 4%. And the grass is enough for 200 cows. So, for each individual person the best strategy is to increase the number of animals. So what? There is enough resource.
')
But time passes, the number of animals grows, and the meadows have already become scarce - the grass is eaten faster than it grows. The fact is that a winning strategy for one person is not an obligatory winning strategy for the whole village. Increasing the livestock population of one person from 1 to 5 is a small load for the meadow. But on the scale of the whole village, this means an increase in the number of mouths from 100 to 500, and this amount is no longer able to feed the meadows. Cows come home thin, and milk from 5 cows - as from two. And it is necessary to milk and care for five at once. Thus, 5 cows, taking into account the overhead, bring less profit than 2. The strategy of increasing the population throughout the village turned out to be wrong. The strategy, winning for each person individually, being applied by all, means the loss of all participants.
At the same time, the heroic impulse of one person, who decided to slaughter 4 cows for meat, in the hope that this would allow him to reduce costs, but to increase the amount of milk from one cow was overlooked. 4 cows across the village is less than a percent. In addition, this percentage is distributed among all residents. Thus, in this case, all the cows in the village receive an increase of 0.8% in the amount of milk :) The heroic man who did not read Wikipedia now has one cow who brings as much milk as before. More precisely, the same amount as before, plus 0.8%. And a lot of meat.
The decision of one player to reduce the consumption of a public resource does not affect (or only slightly) the situation as a whole. However, it reduces the profit of this particular player.
Ebay Buyers Tragedy
And nothing has changed. Grass is now coupons. When regulating the consumption of coupons - as biglion did, selling them for 90 rubles, there was a balance point between those who want coupons and those who donât feel sorry for them. 10 coupons cost 900 rubles, which can be spent on something needed, but just to put a thousand for the purchases ânot everyone wants to buy $ 150 pieces for $ 15â. Well, in fact, any garbage at a discount of 80% still remains all garbage. Well, for two coupons you can put 200 rubles, getting the garbage for 1000, but it makes no sense to pay more - this was the equilibrium point.
Itâs ridiculous to think that Ebay needs the PR that coupon websites create. First of all, they rest on the fact that by providing services or selling goods at cost, you lose in possible profit, but you also create a turnover for future customers. As a seller in the eastern bazaar, who, when asked to throw off the price per kilogram, offers to add to the product scales for the same amount. Yes, but he sells goods at a discount, but he sells them more - reducing the price increases the turnover . Unlike discounts, this has a positive effect on profits. Wholesale lots always sell at a discount. ;)
So, about 90 rubles. Judging by the site, bought 9516 coupons. 90 * 9516 = 856 thousand rubles, of which half will take Biglion - this is their average commission. Do you seriously think that Ebay needs 400 thousand rubles? They spent 540 * 9516â5 million rubles per share, but now they want to get their 400k back? Oh nafig. It was a calculation for PR, and nothing more. People come to the site, register accounts there for the sake of free $ 15, they understand that buying on the Internet is easy. Apply coupons for more expensive goods, in the end. All good.
I also donât think that ebay âaccidentallyâ didnât include a limit on one account. Surely they understood that someone would buy several times. So what? Anyway, there was a limiting factor - the price of the coupon, and the person would not buy 100 coupons - why would he need 100 orders of 450 rubles each? And if there are such people (I, for example, almost collected all the details for a quadrocopter at a discount of 80%), there will be few of them and they will not do the weather. But beginners will practice making orders.
But this is what Ebay really blundered into - in the mechanism for generating codes. Apparently, they had previously created a pool of codes, specifically for the action (as hinted at by the abbreviation S BGL QKKM379), which was given to the coupon. The first part - SBGLQKKM did not change at all, and the rest of the numbers and letters went in order and alphabetically, without zeros, but with omissions.
If we assume that the last two characters (numbers-letters) were changing, and the first character was only a figure, then there were about 11,000 coupons, which is somehow not enough according to my calculations - only 9,500 were bought, and this is on the first day of the promotion. And the generation of left coupons and passes.
Maybe I donât know something, if someone has coupon numbers different from the SBGLQKKM format (digit) (digit-letter) (digit-letter), then tell us about them.
If we assume that the first symbol has also changed, then all the coupons in it were (26 + 9) * (26 + 9) * (26 + 9) = 42875 = 43 thousand. Now this is more like the truth.
In any case, there were gaps in the coupon pool (whether they were made during the generation, or it was just the consequences of issuing the blocks by the biglion at the beginning of the action), so any coupon was needed forgenerating the theft of coupons, even if it was used. SBGLQKKM2D R was obtained from SBGLQKKM2D S and SBGLQKKM2D P , and SBGLQKKMM2E 2 was obtained from SBGLQKKM2E 3 and SBGLQKKM2E 4 .
Someone even wrote a PHP script that did the same. But anyway:
As a result, the external (in relation to the gameplay) mechanism (in the tragedy of the communities - the elder) was broken, which gave thegrass coupons only for money. Then everything went absolutely according to the theory.
If we consider the situation in terms of the profits of each participant individually, then buying the code officially, the average profit in the conditions of theft was much lower than in the conditions of honest participants.
A person buying a coupon, spent 90 rubles, and received 450. His profit was 360 rubles.
The thief, by selecting a code on the basis of his purchase, received about 4 codes for 90 rubles - 1,800 rubles, and finding someone's code - the same money, but without spending anything. Profit from one coupon - 1710 rubles. Almost 5 times more :)
Hence, the winning strategy for such conditions was in the generation of coupons. But, since a game with such conditions is a zero-sum game, in which the gain of one player meant a loss for another. Picking up the coupon number, the person stole this number from the person who gets this code after purchase. And if a person bought several coupons, and some of them turned out to be non-working, what happened? No, not psychosis.
Man's profit began to fall. He bought a coupon, but he was already stolen by someone, the man suffered losses in the amount of 90 rubles. On average, after the publication on HabrĂŠ (judging by my experience), out of 5 codes, there were two workers. The profit from one coupon was: (2 * 450-5 * 90) / 5 = 90 rubles. A profit thief, I recall, 1710 rubles. The difference is 19 times!
Such simple arithmetic, of course, very strongly stimulated either to change the tactics of the game, or to stop playing, fixing the losses. And here I want to talk about the unpleasant. Most people chose the first option. More precisely, they chose him long before that - as soon as the mechanism for generating coupons became clear.
People, what's with you? Why in any Russian project you expose crooks and thieves, protest against bribes and the thieving government, but as soon as you have a small source of money in your hands that allows you to steal from other people - do you use it right away?
And they do not steal from the government, but from their friends. Have friends from the site with whom you communicate more than with neighbors at home. Double morality of some kind. Or is this striving for the very ideal strategy of the game - when everyone grazes one cow, and I graze 5, and earn the most?
What is the result? As a result, everything fits perfectly into the theory - after the exhaustion of resources (by the end of the day, not a single coupon from 10 was working) the distribution of coupons was simply stopped.
If we consider that buying coupons you could develop a source of a good discount for the whole 4 days:
The closing of the action is a clear minus for all participants, including both scammers and ordinary users. From what you and congratulations. A new week has begun, with new power one can go into the comments and carry the light of knowledge about corruption there and expose the cuts, waiting for the magic ticket to be sent to the mailbox. Nothing itches? So that's great.
If you do not have an account on Habrahabr, you can read and comment on our articles on BoxOverview.com
Of course, the recent hype with coupons for ebay.
For a start, remember what the tragedy of communities is. You can see, for example, in the wiki . And you can not watch.
The tragedy of the village New Fangs Samara region
The village itself lives, breeds goats, sheep, cows, and earns those. Milk is sold, wool knitted socks, and sold in the nearest town. They graze animals on a nearby pasture, a big meadow like this, where there is enough grass for everyone. Enough so that every inhabitant, when the number of his animals increases, does not even think about its restriction. What for? There is enough grass, while one half of the meadow is eaten, the second has time to grow. And a man has an additional income: two cows instead of one - this is twice as much milk. And there will be no harm - there are 100 houses in the village, 100 cows, and even if one person has 5 cows instead of one, this is only an increase of 4%. And the grass is enough for 200 cows. So, for each individual person the best strategy is to increase the number of animals. So what? There is enough resource.')
But time passes, the number of animals grows, and the meadows have already become scarce - the grass is eaten faster than it grows. The fact is that a winning strategy for one person is not an obligatory winning strategy for the whole village. Increasing the livestock population of one person from 1 to 5 is a small load for the meadow. But on the scale of the whole village, this means an increase in the number of mouths from 100 to 500, and this amount is no longer able to feed the meadows. Cows come home thin, and milk from 5 cows - as from two. And it is necessary to milk and care for five at once. Thus, 5 cows, taking into account the overhead, bring less profit than 2. The strategy of increasing the population throughout the village turned out to be wrong. The strategy, winning for each person individually, being applied by all, means the loss of all participants.
At the same time, the heroic impulse of one person, who decided to slaughter 4 cows for meat, in the hope that this would allow him to reduce costs, but to increase the amount of milk from one cow was overlooked. 4 cows across the village is less than a percent. In addition, this percentage is distributed among all residents. Thus, in this case, all the cows in the village receive an increase of 0.8% in the amount of milk :) The heroic man who did not read Wikipedia now has one cow who brings as much milk as before. More precisely, the same amount as before, plus 0.8%. And a lot of meat.
The decision of one player to reduce the consumption of a public resource does not affect (or only slightly) the situation as a whole. However, it reduces the profit of this particular player.
Ebay Buyers Tragedy
And nothing has changed. Grass is now coupons. When regulating the consumption of coupons - as biglion did, selling them for 90 rubles, there was a balance point between those who want coupons and those who donât feel sorry for them. 10 coupons cost 900 rubles, which can be spent on something needed, but just to put a thousand for the purchases ânot everyone wants to buy $ 150 pieces for $ 15â. Well, in fact, any garbage at a discount of 80% still remains all garbage. Well, for two coupons you can put 200 rubles, getting the garbage for 1000, but it makes no sense to pay more - this was the equilibrium point.Itâs ridiculous to think that Ebay needs the PR that coupon websites create. First of all, they rest on the fact that by providing services or selling goods at cost, you lose in possible profit, but you also create a turnover for future customers. As a seller in the eastern bazaar, who, when asked to throw off the price per kilogram, offers to add to the product scales for the same amount. Yes, but he sells goods at a discount, but he sells them more - reducing the price increases the turnover . Unlike discounts, this has a positive effect on profits. Wholesale lots always sell at a discount. ;)
If someone does not understand about the seller
The dialogue is like this:
- How much halva?
- 200 rubles per kilogram.
- Throw off to 150?
- Let me give you 200 rubles not a kilogram, but a little more - just 150 per kilo will be released.
In the first case, he would have sold a kilo for 200 rubles.
In the second - a kilo for 150 rubles.
And in the third - 1.3 kilograms for 200 rubles. The price per kilogram is the same as in the second case, but he sold more. And the profit he receives is not from each person, but from the difference between the cost price of the goods and the selling price. If he bought this halva for 50 rubles, the profit in the first case is 150 rubles, in the second - 100 rubles, in the third - 133 rubles.
- How much halva?
- 200 rubles per kilogram.
- Throw off to 150?
- Let me give you 200 rubles not a kilogram, but a little more - just 150 per kilo will be released.
In the first case, he would have sold a kilo for 200 rubles.
In the second - a kilo for 150 rubles.
And in the third - 1.3 kilograms for 200 rubles. The price per kilogram is the same as in the second case, but he sold more. And the profit he receives is not from each person, but from the difference between the cost price of the goods and the selling price. If he bought this halva for 50 rubles, the profit in the first case is 150 rubles, in the second - 100 rubles, in the third - 133 rubles.
So, about 90 rubles. Judging by the site, bought 9516 coupons. 90 * 9516 = 856 thousand rubles, of which half will take Biglion - this is their average commission. Do you seriously think that Ebay needs 400 thousand rubles? They spent 540 * 9516â5 million rubles per share, but now they want to get their 400k back? Oh nafig. It was a calculation for PR, and nothing more. People come to the site, register accounts there for the sake of free $ 15, they understand that buying on the Internet is easy. Apply coupons for more expensive goods, in the end. All good.
I also donât think that ebay âaccidentallyâ didnât include a limit on one account. Surely they understood that someone would buy several times. So what? Anyway, there was a limiting factor - the price of the coupon, and the person would not buy 100 coupons - why would he need 100 orders of 450 rubles each? And if there are such people (I, for example, almost collected all the details for a quadrocopter at a discount of 80%), there will be few of them and they will not do the weather. But beginners will practice making orders.
But this is what Ebay really blundered into - in the mechanism for generating codes. Apparently, they had previously created a pool of codes, specifically for the action (as hinted at by the abbreviation S BGL QKKM379), which was given to the coupon. The first part - SBGLQKKM did not change at all, and the rest of the numbers and letters went in order and alphabetically, without zeros, but with omissions.
If we assume that the last two characters (numbers-letters) were changing, and the first character was only a figure, then there were about 11,000 coupons, which is somehow not enough according to my calculations - only 9,500 were bought, and this is on the first day of the promotion. And the generation of left coupons and passes.
Maybe I donât know something, if someone has coupon numbers different from the SBGLQKKM format (digit) (digit-letter) (digit-letter), then tell us about them.
If we assume that the first symbol has also changed, then all the coupons in it were (26 + 9) * (26 + 9) * (26 + 9) = 42875 = 43 thousand. Now this is more like the truth.
In any case, there were gaps in the coupon pool (whether they were made during the generation, or it was just the consequences of issuing the blocks by the biglion at the beginning of the action), so any coupon was needed for
Someone even wrote a PHP script that did the same. But anyway:
As a result, the external (in relation to the gameplay) mechanism (in the tragedy of the communities - the elder) was broken, which gave the
If we consider the situation in terms of the profits of each participant individually, then buying the code officially, the average profit in the conditions of theft was much lower than in the conditions of honest participants.
A person buying a coupon, spent 90 rubles, and received 450. His profit was 360 rubles.
The thief, by selecting a code on the basis of his purchase, received about 4 codes for 90 rubles - 1,800 rubles, and finding someone's code - the same money, but without spending anything. Profit from one coupon - 1710 rubles. Almost 5 times more :)
Hence, the winning strategy for such conditions was in the generation of coupons. But, since a game with such conditions is a zero-sum game, in which the gain of one player meant a loss for another. Picking up the coupon number, the person stole this number from the person who gets this code after purchase. And if a person bought several coupons, and some of them turned out to be non-working, what happened? No, not psychosis.
Man's profit began to fall. He bought a coupon, but he was already stolen by someone, the man suffered losses in the amount of 90 rubles. On average, after the publication on HabrĂŠ (judging by my experience), out of 5 codes, there were two workers. The profit from one coupon was: (2 * 450-5 * 90) / 5 = 90 rubles. A profit thief, I recall, 1710 rubles. The difference is 19 times!
Such simple arithmetic, of course, very strongly stimulated either to change the tactics of the game, or to stop playing, fixing the losses. And here I want to talk about the unpleasant. Most people chose the first option. More precisely, they chose him long before that - as soon as the mechanism for generating coupons became clear.
People, what's with you? Why in any Russian project you expose crooks and thieves, protest against bribes and the thieving government, but as soon as you have a small source of money in your hands that allows you to steal from other people - do you use it right away?
And they do not steal from the government, but from their friends. Have friends from the site with whom you communicate more than with neighbors at home. Double morality of some kind. Or is this striving for the very ideal strategy of the game - when everyone grazes one cow, and I graze 5, and earn the most?
What is the result? As a result, everything fits perfectly into the theory - after the exhaustion of resources (by the end of the day, not a single coupon from 10 was working) the distribution of coupons was simply stopped.
If we consider that buying coupons you could develop a source of a good discount for the whole 4 days:
The closing of the action is a clear minus for all participants, including both scammers and ordinary users. From what you and congratulations. A new week has begun, with new power one can go into the comments and carry the light of knowledge about corruption there and expose the cuts, waiting for the magic ticket to be sent to the mailbox. Nothing itches? So that's great.
If you do not have an account on Habrahabr, you can read and comment on our articles on BoxOverview.com
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/201590/
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