"Vkontakte" and "Classmates" waiting for a slow and painful death? ...
In the Soviet journals of the 70s-80s, images with appeals addressed to the reader were often published, such as “offer your signature”, “what is shown here” or, meaningfully, “whatever that means ...”.
This memory prompted me today to study the schedule of attendance of one known resource. Let's look at the picture:
What can be said about what he saw? This is a timeline spanning over six years. It is compiled by Alexa - the most authoritative arbiter of the world Internet in all that relates to site traffic.
')
For skeptics, it is worth making a reservation that Alexa, indeed, is not always ideally accurate in absolute numbers, but in all that relates to the identification of trends , especially within large periods, it is sinless.
Let's go back to the picture. The schedule begins somewhere from the last third of 2001. What was previously, unfortunately, in “Alex” did not survive. However, this is enough. After all, we are behind the United States in the development of the Internet by about 7-10 years. That is, with a stretch we can say that we are now in the “American” 2001 year.
In the beginning, an obvious surge is seen, raising the site in question to the level of maximum positions in its history. The surge occurs at the end of 2001 - the beginning of 2002. It can be assumed that it began shortly before this, and the invisible part of the burst is as sharply directed upwards, as is its visible part.
After a surge of attention comes relative stabilization of attendance - this is the year 2002-2004. Two years is quite a lot. However, in the scale of the life of this site - it is less than a third of the time.
And since 2003, and with varying success, until today there has been a drop in attendance, accompanied by some sharp failures, sometimes small ups.
It can be assumed that the upturns are caused by additional infusions in marketing, maybe new teams of managers came with fresh ideas and energy, but the trend is definitely downward. It can be assumed that if this trend continues further, then in 3-4 years from today, the chart will be buried in the “point zero” on the horizontal scale ...
And now - "exposing the focus." Whose schedule is this? .. And this is the schedule of www.classmates.com site attendance - the same one, according to the model of which Odnoklassniki.ru, Vkontakte and some other similar, smaller social networks of Runet exist. Their proposal to the user: “come to us and find your lost classmates, classmates, colleagues”.
So, it is believed that the argument "come and find" can be enough for a very short time. But practically nothing but this is offered ...
My experience and the experience of several acquaintances whom I, for the sake of interest, questioned, shows that the passion of Vkontakte and Odnoklassniki.ru can be clearly divided into several stages:
1. “What is this? Worth a look and sign up. ”
2. “Oh! Yes, indeed, quite a few of my former acquaintances. ”
3. “Hello, Vasya (Petya, Olya, Zhenya, Ekaterina Pavlovna ...)! How are you?! Glad to see you! Well, I'm good ... and the same to you! .. Well, now let's be in touch! ”
4. One or two letters are written to each newly acquired “friend”. As a rule, short - for 3-5 sentences.
5. Communication fades ...
6. ... fades ...
7. ... and, in fact, is no more. All those who were really interesting appeared in the ICQ contact lists or phone notebooks, the rest ... and what to do with them? We have become different. Even those close not to pick up.
The whole described cycle takes about 1-2 months.
Of course, there are exceptions, and it happens that people “hang out” on the site for a longer time. But it is still units. Most follow the path described above.
***
Thus, if you mentally impose a schedule of attendance of the American prototype on the logic of user actions on Russian analogues, then we can assume that now Vkontakte and Odnoklassniki are at the level of 2001 development classmates.com. Not in absolute numbers, they are not important here, but in dynamics.
So (taking into account both today's audience of the Runet and its growth) it can be assumed that the peak will come relatively soon and the development rates of these two monsters of the domestic Web 2.0 will slow down, and later stop altogether.
Then, (guided by the classmates.com life logic), the attendance at these sites will be more or less stable for a couple of years, and then slow dying will begin, interrupted by flashes of agony ...
Will it really be? Shows time. But I think that this is a fairly close to the truth picture of the future in such projects built solely on “recognition” and the search for old acquaintances.
***
This suggests several conclusions related to the above, directly or indirectly:
1. Often, Odnoklassniki or Vkontakte is the first site that a person who first entered the Internet begins to use. He is motivated by curiosity. His stimulates the joy of meeting, the game of recognition.
2. Having received the first skills of communicating with web services on social networks of this type, many people gradually leave and go on to explore new sites. They are already a little “grounded” by the experience of communication with web interfaces. And they come to social networks by interests, blog hosting sites, try to use sites that provide one or another web toolkit (such as photo hosting, video hosting, social bookmarking). That is, mastered more thoroughly.
3. Social networks such as "Vkontakte" and "Classmates" carry an important educational mission. Many people come to the Internet precisely in order to register in them. With this, he begins his acquaintance with the communication capabilities of the Internet. This is a kind of "online educational program."
4. Sooner or later, the “adult” audience of the Runet (over 14-16 years old) will pass this educational program, and the younger generation already does not need such educational software. It grows on the Internet, perceiving it as a natural component of life.
5. When the "educational program" will be completed (probably in 3-5 years time), the process of dying will begin on Vkontakte and Odnoklassniki. Because just looking for old friends will no longer be needed. All friends will either be found, or their search will be more convenient through other channels.
And finally, the latest and most important conclusion from all this is financial . As a web producer, I would advise colleagues from successful social networks like Odnoklassniki and Vkontakte to reflect on the prospects, estimate when they have an estimated peak attendance, and sell up to 70-90 percent of the project to those investors the moment will be the most attractive. And now, while growth continues and the “euphoria of sociality” continues, there are many such investors. Otherwise, if you skip the peak, the cost will inevitably begin to fall sharply, amid a decrease in attendance and an increase in frustration.
However, I suspect that many creators of social networks understand this well, just for obvious reasons, they do not consider it necessary to actively speak out on this topic. It is their right.
Source - " Spiridonov.ru - blog of the Internet producer ."
This memory prompted me today to study the schedule of attendance of one known resource. Let's look at the picture:
What can be said about what he saw? This is a timeline spanning over six years. It is compiled by Alexa - the most authoritative arbiter of the world Internet in all that relates to site traffic.
')
For skeptics, it is worth making a reservation that Alexa, indeed, is not always ideally accurate in absolute numbers, but in all that relates to the identification of trends , especially within large periods, it is sinless.
Let's go back to the picture. The schedule begins somewhere from the last third of 2001. What was previously, unfortunately, in “Alex” did not survive. However, this is enough. After all, we are behind the United States in the development of the Internet by about 7-10 years. That is, with a stretch we can say that we are now in the “American” 2001 year.
In the beginning, an obvious surge is seen, raising the site in question to the level of maximum positions in its history. The surge occurs at the end of 2001 - the beginning of 2002. It can be assumed that it began shortly before this, and the invisible part of the burst is as sharply directed upwards, as is its visible part.
After a surge of attention comes relative stabilization of attendance - this is the year 2002-2004. Two years is quite a lot. However, in the scale of the life of this site - it is less than a third of the time.
And since 2003, and with varying success, until today there has been a drop in attendance, accompanied by some sharp failures, sometimes small ups.
It can be assumed that the upturns are caused by additional infusions in marketing, maybe new teams of managers came with fresh ideas and energy, but the trend is definitely downward. It can be assumed that if this trend continues further, then in 3-4 years from today, the chart will be buried in the “point zero” on the horizontal scale ...
And now - "exposing the focus." Whose schedule is this? .. And this is the schedule of www.classmates.com site attendance - the same one, according to the model of which Odnoklassniki.ru, Vkontakte and some other similar, smaller social networks of Runet exist. Their proposal to the user: “come to us and find your lost classmates, classmates, colleagues”.
So, it is believed that the argument "come and find" can be enough for a very short time. But practically nothing but this is offered ...
My experience and the experience of several acquaintances whom I, for the sake of interest, questioned, shows that the passion of Vkontakte and Odnoklassniki.ru can be clearly divided into several stages:
1. “What is this? Worth a look and sign up. ”
2. “Oh! Yes, indeed, quite a few of my former acquaintances. ”
3. “Hello, Vasya (Petya, Olya, Zhenya, Ekaterina Pavlovna ...)! How are you?! Glad to see you! Well, I'm good ... and the same to you! .. Well, now let's be in touch! ”
4. One or two letters are written to each newly acquired “friend”. As a rule, short - for 3-5 sentences.
5. Communication fades ...
6. ... fades ...
7. ... and, in fact, is no more. All those who were really interesting appeared in the ICQ contact lists or phone notebooks, the rest ... and what to do with them? We have become different. Even those close not to pick up.
The whole described cycle takes about 1-2 months.
Of course, there are exceptions, and it happens that people “hang out” on the site for a longer time. But it is still units. Most follow the path described above.
***
Thus, if you mentally impose a schedule of attendance of the American prototype on the logic of user actions on Russian analogues, then we can assume that now Vkontakte and Odnoklassniki are at the level of 2001 development classmates.com. Not in absolute numbers, they are not important here, but in dynamics.
So (taking into account both today's audience of the Runet and its growth) it can be assumed that the peak will come relatively soon and the development rates of these two monsters of the domestic Web 2.0 will slow down, and later stop altogether.
Then, (guided by the classmates.com life logic), the attendance at these sites will be more or less stable for a couple of years, and then slow dying will begin, interrupted by flashes of agony ...
Will it really be? Shows time. But I think that this is a fairly close to the truth picture of the future in such projects built solely on “recognition” and the search for old acquaintances.
***
This suggests several conclusions related to the above, directly or indirectly:
1. Often, Odnoklassniki or Vkontakte is the first site that a person who first entered the Internet begins to use. He is motivated by curiosity. His stimulates the joy of meeting, the game of recognition.
2. Having received the first skills of communicating with web services on social networks of this type, many people gradually leave and go on to explore new sites. They are already a little “grounded” by the experience of communication with web interfaces. And they come to social networks by interests, blog hosting sites, try to use sites that provide one or another web toolkit (such as photo hosting, video hosting, social bookmarking). That is, mastered more thoroughly.
3. Social networks such as "Vkontakte" and "Classmates" carry an important educational mission. Many people come to the Internet precisely in order to register in them. With this, he begins his acquaintance with the communication capabilities of the Internet. This is a kind of "online educational program."
4. Sooner or later, the “adult” audience of the Runet (over 14-16 years old) will pass this educational program, and the younger generation already does not need such educational software. It grows on the Internet, perceiving it as a natural component of life.
5. When the "educational program" will be completed (probably in 3-5 years time), the process of dying will begin on Vkontakte and Odnoklassniki. Because just looking for old friends will no longer be needed. All friends will either be found, or their search will be more convenient through other channels.
And finally, the latest and most important conclusion from all this is financial . As a web producer, I would advise colleagues from successful social networks like Odnoklassniki and Vkontakte to reflect on the prospects, estimate when they have an estimated peak attendance, and sell up to 70-90 percent of the project to those investors the moment will be the most attractive. And now, while growth continues and the “euphoria of sociality” continues, there are many such investors. Otherwise, if you skip the peak, the cost will inevitably begin to fall sharply, amid a decrease in attendance and an increase in frustration.
However, I suspect that many creators of social networks understand this well, just for obvious reasons, they do not consider it necessary to actively speak out on this topic. It is their right.
Source - " Spiridonov.ru - blog of the Internet producer ."
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/20050/
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