Habr-foresight: 6,000,000 tons of wet kittens in space
“Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited, while imagination covers the whole world, stimulating progress, generating evolution. ”A. Einstein
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” Alan Kay , creator of the PLO
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According to the results of the article "Starting loop" :
- virtually collected money 1.300.000 $,
- “sold” more than 1,000 “tickets” to space,
- and found many many questions
The main thing that I noticed is that people are even limited in their thoughts, that there is tremendous resistance, even to imagine how you can ensure the DEMAND for the volume of launching cargo into space on a scale of 6.000.000 tons per year? (provided that the launch cost of 1 kg of cargo will tend to zero)
I suggest that all people be creative and not fully creative to join thesearch for creating answers and fill the future with meanings. Do it yourself
“Your arrows do not reach the target,” remarked the master, “because they do not fly far enough mentally.” Eugene Herrigel, “Zen and the art of archery”
Sooner or later this question (about 6 million tons) will arise, and therefore it is possible to become one of the first who dared to think / construct mentally about it.
“The future exists first in imagination, then in will, then in reality.”
What can be done now is to fantasize, look into the future, make cognitive creative work, make the transition from 0 to 1 , create a precedent of habr- forsite .
I propose to move away from discussing the possibility / impossibility of today's technologies and think about how we can push the boundaries of our understanding of space flights and cargo traffic. On the recommendations of the brainstorm - at the first stage - we just throw in ideas, without any criticism .
Just ideas, even the craziest.
For example, casting seals into orbit. (Initially, the article was called: “Inertia of thinking: how to create a market for space cargo transportation of 6 million tons per year”)
But this is just an example of the inertia of thinking, dry, logical and ... sad.
What ideas already exist When answering the question “How can we satisfy the demand for space cargo in the amount of 6 million tons per year?”
1) Launch of nuclear waste (about 50,000,000 tons, it is necessary to clarify)
2) Market "cold ."
3) The idea of Keith Lofstrom’s developer Sky Sky Server Sky orbital data center, an orbital data center of 7 gram satellites as thick as a solar-powered paper sheet ( video )
4) 3D printing in solar orbit
5) tourism, colonization of Mars, the Moon, Europe
6) private satellites, private navigation systems, private communications
7) Mining (from the moon , satellites of Jupiter , asteroids )
I would very much like to hear your ideas / projects (or links to such projects) that complement this list or deepen it, concretize it.
Examples from literature / science fiction are also welcome.
I clearly understand that there will be a lot of trolling, but in the midst of it there are crumbs of something worthwhile.
“I will no longer work for the present, I work for the future” N. Tesla
Foresight (from the English. Foresight - looking into the future, foresight) is a tool for shaping priorities and mobilizing a large number of participants to achieve qualitatively new results in the fields of science and technology, the economy, the state and society. According to the results of foresight projects, road maps are created. It is one of the most important tools of the innovation economy.
"Foresight is a systematic attempt to assess the long-term prospects of science, technology, economics and society, in order to determine strategic research directions and new technologies that can bring the greatest social and economic benefits." Ben Martin (SPRU, University of Sussex) ( Wikipedia )
Brainstorming , brainstorming (brainstorming, brainstorming, English brainstorming) is an operational method of solving problems based on stimulating creative activity, in which participants in the discussion are asked to express as many solutions as possible, including the most fantastic ones. Then, from the total number of ideas expressed, the most successful ones are selected that can be used in practice. ( Wikipedia )
Inertia of thinking (psychological inertia) is the opposite of fantasy, imagination. It consists in the closure of thinking on the existing system, unwillingness to get away from current ideas and beliefs.
Inertia of thinking is useful and necessary in everyday life. It frees you from having to decide what has already been decided.
At the same time, this is the main obstacle to discovering new things.
Often the inertia of thinking is characteristic not so much for people far from discoveries, but rather for those who make these discoveries.
Today, in order for the inventor to escape from the inertia of thinking, several methods have been developed. Their basis is the use of abstraction, an attempt to escape from the "captivity of words." ( Wikipedia )
You can use any method of overcoming the inertia of thinking: TRIZ , de Bono's “hats”, synectics , Disney strategy , divergent thinking , heuristics , invent your own technique or do without it.
Examples of narrow thinking of experts
What will happen when humanity reaches the six millionth volume of space cargo?
- advances in science in many areas
- small step on the Kardashev scale
- new / other jobs and new / other professions
- quenching "existential hunger"
- the death of several industries, corporations
- prevention of world war for arctic
“Imagination is the most important thing, it is a reflection of what we attract into our life.”
A. Einstein
Before the “dynamic part” of this article begins, I want to quote Peter Till 's parting words:
“The big secret is that there are a lot of unsolved little secrets left. There are still a lot of white spots on the map of human knowledge. You can explore them. So go and fill in these white spots. Literally every moment is an opportunity to go to these new places and explore them.
There is, in all likelihood, no special time that is necessarily the right one to start your own company or your life. But some moments seem more favorable than others. Now is the moment. If you do not take responsibility and do not open up to meet the future, if you do not take responsibility for your life, there is a feeling that no one will do it. „
Habr, what will be our future?
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” Alan Kay , creator of the PLO
')
According to the results of the article "Starting loop" :
- virtually collected money 1.300.000 $,
- “sold” more than 1,000 “tickets” to space,
- and found many many questions
The main thing that I noticed is that people are even limited in their thoughts, that there is tremendous resistance, even to imagine how you can ensure the DEMAND for the volume of launching cargo into space on a scale of 6.000.000 tons per year? (provided that the launch cost of 1 kg of cargo will tend to zero)
I suggest that all people be creative and not fully creative to join the
“Your arrows do not reach the target,” remarked the master, “because they do not fly far enough mentally.” Eugene Herrigel, “Zen and the art of archery”
for lovers of cats - under the spoiler
This is the most famous for Habrovchan "space" cat ( Zelenyikot )
and then just pictures to stimulate the creative part of the brain
and then just pictures to stimulate the creative part of the brain
Sooner or later this question (about 6 million tons) will arise, and therefore it is possible to become one of the first who dared to think / construct mentally about it.
“The future exists first in imagination, then in will, then in reality.”
What can be done now is to fantasize, look into the future, make cognitive creative work, make the transition from 0 to 1 , create a precedent of habr- forsite .
I propose to move away from discussing the possibility / impossibility of today's technologies and think about how we can push the boundaries of our understanding of space flights and cargo traffic. On the recommendations of the brainstorm - at the first stage - we just throw in ideas, without any criticism .
Just ideas, even the craziest.
For example, casting seals into orbit. (Initially, the article was called: “Inertia of thinking: how to create a market for space cargo transportation of 6 million tons per year”)
But this is just an example of the inertia of thinking, dry, logical and ... sad.
What ideas already exist When answering the question “How can we satisfy the demand for space cargo in the amount of 6 million tons per year?”
1) Launch of nuclear waste (about 50,000,000 tons, it is necessary to clarify)
2) Market "cold ."
3) The idea of Keith Lofstrom’s developer Sky Sky Server Sky orbital data center, an orbital data center of 7 gram satellites as thick as a solar-powered paper sheet ( video )
4) 3D printing in solar orbit
5) tourism, colonization of Mars, the Moon, Europe
6) private satellites, private navigation systems, private communications
7) Mining (from the moon , satellites of Jupiter , asteroids )
I would very much like to hear your ideas / projects (or links to such projects) that complement this list or deepen it, concretize it.
Examples from literature / science fiction are also welcome.
I clearly understand that there will be a lot of trolling, but in the midst of it there are crumbs of something worthwhile.
First, a little theory:
“I will no longer work for the present, I work for the future” N. Tesla
Foresight (from the English. Foresight - looking into the future, foresight) is a tool for shaping priorities and mobilizing a large number of participants to achieve qualitatively new results in the fields of science and technology, the economy, the state and society. According to the results of foresight projects, road maps are created. It is one of the most important tools of the innovation economy.
"Foresight is a systematic attempt to assess the long-term prospects of science, technology, economics and society, in order to determine strategic research directions and new technologies that can bring the greatest social and economic benefits." Ben Martin (SPRU, University of Sussex) ( Wikipedia )
Brainstorming , brainstorming (brainstorming, brainstorming, English brainstorming) is an operational method of solving problems based on stimulating creative activity, in which participants in the discussion are asked to express as many solutions as possible, including the most fantastic ones. Then, from the total number of ideas expressed, the most successful ones are selected that can be used in practice. ( Wikipedia )
Inertia of thinking (psychological inertia) is the opposite of fantasy, imagination. It consists in the closure of thinking on the existing system, unwillingness to get away from current ideas and beliefs.
Inertia of thinking is useful and necessary in everyday life. It frees you from having to decide what has already been decided.
At the same time, this is the main obstacle to discovering new things.
Often the inertia of thinking is characteristic not so much for people far from discoveries, but rather for those who make these discoveries.
Today, in order for the inventor to escape from the inertia of thinking, several methods have been developed. Their basis is the use of abstraction, an attempt to escape from the "captivity of words." ( Wikipedia )
You can use any method of overcoming the inertia of thinking: TRIZ , de Bono's “hats”, synectics , Disney strategy , divergent thinking , heuristics , invent your own technique or do without it.
Examples of narrow thinking of experts
Brilliant misconceptions in science and technology
The concept is interesting and well framed. But, in order for an idea to start working, it must contain common sense. (Prof. Yale University in response to Fred Smith's proposal to organize a home delivery service; Fred Smith will become the founder of the delivery service of Federal Express Corp.)
Drilling land in search of oil? Do you mean that you need to drill the earth in order to find oil? You're crazy. (response to the project of Edwin Drake, 1859)
Knowledgeable people are well aware that the voice can not be transmitted through the wires. Even if it were possible, there would be no benefit from it. (The Boston Post, 1865)
Louis Pasteur's theory of microbes is a ridiculous fantasy. (Pierre Pache - Professor of Psychology at the University of Toulouse, 1872)
The belly, chest and brain will always be closed to the invasion of a wise and humane surgeon. (Sir John Eric Eriksen - British doctor appointed by the chief surgeon of Queen Victoria, 1873)
A device called “telephone” has too many flaws to seriously talk about it as a means of communication. This device is of no value to us. (official letter of the employee of Western Union, 1876)
Americans may need a phone, but we don’t. We have enough messenger boys. (Sir William Price, Chief Engineer of the Post Office, 1878)
Flying machines weighing heavier than air are impossible! (Lord Kelvin - President of the Royal Society, Royal Society, 1895)
Everything that could be invented has already been invented. (Charles Dewell - Special Representative of the US Patent Office, 1899)
Airplanes are interesting toys, but they do not represent any military value. (Marechal Foch, Professor, Ecole Superieure de Guerre)
This tarahtelkoy can scare pregnant cats, but what is the use of it in battle? (General Kitchener on the first tank, 1915)
This music box without wires can have no commercial value. Who will pay for messages that are not intended for a private person? (Partners of the Davclass Sarnoff Association in response to his proposal to invest in a radio project, 1920)
Professor Godard does not understand the relationship between action and reaction, he does not know that the reaction requires more suitable conditions than a vacuum. It seems that the professor is experiencing an acute shortage of elementary knowledge, which is taught in high school. (An editorial in the New York Times devoted to the revolutionary work of Robert Godard on the subject of a rocket, 1921)
Yes, who the hell are interested in talking actors? (HM Warner - Warner Brothers reaction to the use of sound in cinema, 1927)
I think that in the global market we will find the demand for five computers. (Thomas Watson - Director of IBM, 1943)
ENIAC consists of 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons. However, the computers of the future, perhaps, will consist of only 1000 electron tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons. (Popular Mechanics, March 1949)
Atomic energy vacuum cleaners may appear in 10 years. (Sir Alex Levit, President and Founder, Vacuum Cleaner Lewyt Corporation, 1955)
I traveled this country far and wide, communicated with the smartest people and I can assure you that data processing is just a fad, the fashion for which will last no more than a year. (editor of the publisher Prentice Hall, 1957)
The potential global market for copiers will hold no more than 5,000 units. (IBM founders of the company Xerox, 1959)
We do not like their sound and, in general, the guitar is yesterday. (Decca Recording Co., which rejected the recording of the Beatles album, in 1962)
But what can be useful in this thing? (a question on the discussion of the creation of a microchip in the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968)
In 1951, I visited Professor Douglas Hartree, who created the first differential analyzer in England. He had more experience working with such highly specialized computers than anyone. He told me that, in his opinion, all the calculations that will be needed here in England can be made on three digital computers that were already being built at that time — one at Cambridge, the second at Teddingding and a third at Manchester. As he said, personal machines will never be needed by anyone, and the price they have is exorbitant. (Lord Bowden, American Scientist, 1970)
In the mid-70s someone approached me with one idea, which now, probably, can be called a personal computer. The idea was that we should use an 8080 processor with a keyboard and monitor, and then sell these machines in the domestic market. I then asked: “What is all this for?” The only thing I heard in response was the creation of a kitchen computer for housewives, which would keep in memory all sorts of culinary recipes. Personally, I did not see anything useful in this, so we never returned to this idea. (Gordon Moore, Intel)
This computer, by the way, was called Honeywell Kitchen Computer and cost about 4 brand-new cars at the time of release in the USA - no wonder that no one bought anything.
No one may need to have a computer in their home. (Ken Olson - Founder and President of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977)
We will never be able to create a 32-bit operating system. (Bill Gates at the MSX presentation, Machines with Software eXchangeability - the name of the standard for consumer computers of the 1980s)
$ 100 million is too much for Microsoft. (IBM, 1982)
I believe that OS / 2 is destined to become the most significant operating system and, possibly, a program for all times. (Bill Gates in the introduction to OS / 2 User Guide, 1987)
Many say that in 1996 the already fast pace of the spread of access to the Network throughout the world will only accelerate. But personally my opinion is this: the rise of the popularity of the Internet in 1996 will end in complete collapse. (Robert Metcalf, founder of 3Com and inventor of Ethernet, 1995)
In two years, the spam problem will be solved. (Bill Gates at the World Economic Forum, 2004)
By next Christmas, the iPod will go to the next world, lift its hooves, join the majority - in a word, kaput. (Sir Alan Sugar, CEO of Amstrad, Daily Telegraph, February 2005)
The iPhone has no chance of getting a significant part of the market. Absolutely none. Suppose that by asking for a $ 500 phone, Apple makes good money, but take a look at the 1.3 billion mobile phones sold worldwide. Better our software will be installed on 60, 70 or 80% of them, and not on the two or three percent that fall on Apple. (Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, USA Today, 2007)
Drilling land in search of oil? Do you mean that you need to drill the earth in order to find oil? You're crazy. (response to the project of Edwin Drake, 1859)
Knowledgeable people are well aware that the voice can not be transmitted through the wires. Even if it were possible, there would be no benefit from it. (The Boston Post, 1865)
Louis Pasteur's theory of microbes is a ridiculous fantasy. (Pierre Pache - Professor of Psychology at the University of Toulouse, 1872)
The belly, chest and brain will always be closed to the invasion of a wise and humane surgeon. (Sir John Eric Eriksen - British doctor appointed by the chief surgeon of Queen Victoria, 1873)
A device called “telephone” has too many flaws to seriously talk about it as a means of communication. This device is of no value to us. (official letter of the employee of Western Union, 1876)
Americans may need a phone, but we don’t. We have enough messenger boys. (Sir William Price, Chief Engineer of the Post Office, 1878)
Flying machines weighing heavier than air are impossible! (Lord Kelvin - President of the Royal Society, Royal Society, 1895)
Everything that could be invented has already been invented. (Charles Dewell - Special Representative of the US Patent Office, 1899)
Airplanes are interesting toys, but they do not represent any military value. (Marechal Foch, Professor, Ecole Superieure de Guerre)
This tarahtelkoy can scare pregnant cats, but what is the use of it in battle? (General Kitchener on the first tank, 1915)
This music box without wires can have no commercial value. Who will pay for messages that are not intended for a private person? (Partners of the Davclass Sarnoff Association in response to his proposal to invest in a radio project, 1920)
Professor Godard does not understand the relationship between action and reaction, he does not know that the reaction requires more suitable conditions than a vacuum. It seems that the professor is experiencing an acute shortage of elementary knowledge, which is taught in high school. (An editorial in the New York Times devoted to the revolutionary work of Robert Godard on the subject of a rocket, 1921)
Yes, who the hell are interested in talking actors? (HM Warner - Warner Brothers reaction to the use of sound in cinema, 1927)
I think that in the global market we will find the demand for five computers. (Thomas Watson - Director of IBM, 1943)
ENIAC consists of 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons. However, the computers of the future, perhaps, will consist of only 1000 electron tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons. (Popular Mechanics, March 1949)
Atomic energy vacuum cleaners may appear in 10 years. (Sir Alex Levit, President and Founder, Vacuum Cleaner Lewyt Corporation, 1955)
I traveled this country far and wide, communicated with the smartest people and I can assure you that data processing is just a fad, the fashion for which will last no more than a year. (editor of the publisher Prentice Hall, 1957)
The potential global market for copiers will hold no more than 5,000 units. (IBM founders of the company Xerox, 1959)
We do not like their sound and, in general, the guitar is yesterday. (Decca Recording Co., which rejected the recording of the Beatles album, in 1962)
But what can be useful in this thing? (a question on the discussion of the creation of a microchip in the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968)
In 1951, I visited Professor Douglas Hartree, who created the first differential analyzer in England. He had more experience working with such highly specialized computers than anyone. He told me that, in his opinion, all the calculations that will be needed here in England can be made on three digital computers that were already being built at that time — one at Cambridge, the second at Teddingding and a third at Manchester. As he said, personal machines will never be needed by anyone, and the price they have is exorbitant. (Lord Bowden, American Scientist, 1970)
In the mid-70s someone approached me with one idea, which now, probably, can be called a personal computer. The idea was that we should use an 8080 processor with a keyboard and monitor, and then sell these machines in the domestic market. I then asked: “What is all this for?” The only thing I heard in response was the creation of a kitchen computer for housewives, which would keep in memory all sorts of culinary recipes. Personally, I did not see anything useful in this, so we never returned to this idea. (Gordon Moore, Intel)
This computer, by the way, was called Honeywell Kitchen Computer and cost about 4 brand-new cars at the time of release in the USA - no wonder that no one bought anything.
No one may need to have a computer in their home. (Ken Olson - Founder and President of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977)
We will never be able to create a 32-bit operating system. (Bill Gates at the MSX presentation, Machines with Software eXchangeability - the name of the standard for consumer computers of the 1980s)
$ 100 million is too much for Microsoft. (IBM, 1982)
I believe that OS / 2 is destined to become the most significant operating system and, possibly, a program for all times. (Bill Gates in the introduction to OS / 2 User Guide, 1987)
Many say that in 1996 the already fast pace of the spread of access to the Network throughout the world will only accelerate. But personally my opinion is this: the rise of the popularity of the Internet in 1996 will end in complete collapse. (Robert Metcalf, founder of 3Com and inventor of Ethernet, 1995)
In two years, the spam problem will be solved. (Bill Gates at the World Economic Forum, 2004)
By next Christmas, the iPod will go to the next world, lift its hooves, join the majority - in a word, kaput. (Sir Alan Sugar, CEO of Amstrad, Daily Telegraph, February 2005)
The iPhone has no chance of getting a significant part of the market. Absolutely none. Suppose that by asking for a $ 500 phone, Apple makes good money, but take a look at the 1.3 billion mobile phones sold worldwide. Better our software will be installed on 60, 70 or 80% of them, and not on the two or three percent that fall on Apple. (Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, USA Today, 2007)
What will happen when humanity reaches the six millionth volume of space cargo?
- advances in science in many areas
- small step on the Kardashev scale
- new / other jobs and new / other professions
- quenching "existential hunger"
- the death of several industries, corporations
- prevention of world war for arctic
“Imagination is the most important thing, it is a reflection of what we attract into our life.”
A. Einstein
Before the “dynamic part” of this article begins, I want to quote Peter Till 's parting words:
“The big secret is that there are a lot of unsolved little secrets left. There are still a lot of white spots on the map of human knowledge. You can explore them. So go and fill in these white spots. Literally every moment is an opportunity to go to these new places and explore them.
There is, in all likelihood, no special time that is necessarily the right one to start your own company or your life. But some moments seem more favorable than others. Now is the moment. If you do not take responsibility and do not open up to meet the future, if you do not take responsibility for your life, there is a feeling that no one will do it. „
Habr, what will be our future?
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/196290/
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