How to make the world applaud while standing. Making startups popular
Imagine that the world is a concert hall, and your startup just launched is a show that was completed a second ago, and the public is about to start standing up for you standing up, or it will get off with languid pops in different corners of the hall. Why does the sophisticated public sometimes occasionally meet with restrained and even cold, and some mediocre ones with shouts of “Bravo”? How to make your startup appreciated, and even better? How to make the world applaud you standing?
Professor of the University of Michigan, Scott E. Page, known for the Model Thinking course on the Coursera, in collaboration with John H. Miller in 2004 proposed an elegant model “Standing Ovations”, which, using a cellular automaton, describes whether the hall will applaud standing still, depending on some factors. In this article, I will first describe the model as simplistic as possible, and then, under the cut, I’ll go on to some mathematical and near-mathematical calculations, to build a cellular automaton, and finally to conclusions for a startup and other areas of life.
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For a second, imagine yourself in the auditorium at the exciting moment of the curtain dropping. What can make you get up and start applauding? First, of course, you should like the play. Secondly, you will most likely feel uncomfortable if you find yourself the only person in the hall who is standing up applauding (as well as if everyone stands up and you sit). So, it is necessary that some of the audience has already decided to get up. Thirdly, if you came to a play with friends or family, and some of them got up, then you probably want to support him and get up too. Fourth, you can not see the whole room. Depending on the place you occupy, you can only see the first rows of the stalls, half of the hall, or if you are sitting in the first row, then no one except your neighbors. Therefore, first of all, only the part of the hall that you can see influences your decision.
Thus, we can distinguish four factors that affect whether you get up:
Impressions of the performance for each person are individual, but, in the general case, they directly depend on the quality of the performance. Better screenplay, the game of actors, scenery, direction - a better impression. Your impression of the performance can be represented as a formula
where:
i (impression) - your impression of the performance;
Q (quality) - the quality of the performance;
e (error) - individual perception error for each viewer;
If your i will be higher than T (Threshold is the threshold at which you will rise), then you will rise to your feet.
We also introduce the parameter X - the share of the visible audience, which should start to applaud while standing, so that you too decide to stand up and not feel uncomfortable. This parameter is also individual: some people are ready to support any trend, while others do not attach virtually any value to the behavior of society. Share audience standing ovation, denoted as N.
But this is not all the parameters. An important role is also played by whether someone from the group with whom you came (stood for F - friends & family).
The algorithm by which the viewer determines whether to stand or remain in the chair looks like this:
For example, in the hall 100 people. The threshold T of each viewer is 45%, and the quality of the show Q is 35%. Some person A will rise only under the condition that
, it means e should be greater than 10. If the spread of opinions in the hall is small: e varies from -15 to +15, then you can see the result in the picture below. Blue indicates the sitting audience share, green - standing.
Increasing the range of opinions, that is, expanding the range of values ​​of e to [-35, 35], we obtain the following picture:
Consequently, the higher the dispersion of opinions (the more “motley” the audience in the hall), the higher the probability of getting an ovation.
Considering that you don’t see the whole hall, but only a certain part of it, the most important is the opinion about the performance of those sitting in the front rows.
It is important that if one member of the group gets up, all the others follow. From this it follows that the larger groups of spectators come to the play, the more standing ovation is more likely.
You can play with the cellular automaton, see what happens when the input parameters change, you can directly in the browser (wrote the implementation in Javascript ).
To summarize To maximize the probability of ovation, you must:
With regard to the promotion of a startup, this means the following:
Naturally, this model can be extrapolated not only to start-ups, but also to any situation where every member of society has to make a binary decision (yes / no): do you start smoking? Do I go to university? To create a family? Buy a car? Do you have a dog? Do you play sports? Should I start programming?
Unfortunately, all materials are in English. I did not find Russian speakers, and I was not looking very actively. If someone throws - add to the post, I will be grateful.
Professor of the University of Michigan, Scott E. Page, known for the Model Thinking course on the Coursera, in collaboration with John H. Miller in 2004 proposed an elegant model “Standing Ovations”, which, using a cellular automaton, describes whether the hall will applaud standing still, depending on some factors. In this article, I will first describe the model as simplistic as possible, and then, under the cut, I’ll go on to some mathematical and near-mathematical calculations, to build a cellular automaton, and finally to conclusions for a startup and other areas of life.
')
For a second, imagine yourself in the auditorium at the exciting moment of the curtain dropping. What can make you get up and start applauding? First, of course, you should like the play. Secondly, you will most likely feel uncomfortable if you find yourself the only person in the hall who is standing up applauding (as well as if everyone stands up and you sit). So, it is necessary that some of the audience has already decided to get up. Thirdly, if you came to a play with friends or family, and some of them got up, then you probably want to support him and get up too. Fourth, you can not see the whole room. Depending on the place you occupy, you can only see the first rows of the stalls, half of the hall, or if you are sitting in the first row, then no one except your neighbors. Therefore, first of all, only the part of the hall that you can see influences your decision.
Thus, we can distinguish four factors that affect whether you get up:
- Your impression of the show;
- The proportion of the audience that has already decided to get up;
- The behavior of your neighbors in a row;
- The behavior of the "stars", sitting in the front rows;
A little automaton theory
Impressions of the performance for each person are individual, but, in the general case, they directly depend on the quality of the performance. Better screenplay, the game of actors, scenery, direction - a better impression. Your impression of the performance can be represented as a formula
where:i (impression) - your impression of the performance;
Q (quality) - the quality of the performance;
e (error) - individual perception error for each viewer;
If your i will be higher than T (Threshold is the threshold at which you will rise), then you will rise to your feet.
We also introduce the parameter X - the share of the visible audience, which should start to applaud while standing, so that you too decide to stand up and not feel uncomfortable. This parameter is also individual: some people are ready to support any trend, while others do not attach virtually any value to the behavior of society. Share audience standing ovation, denoted as N.
But this is not all the parameters. An important role is also played by whether someone from the group with whom you came (stood for F - friends & family).
The algorithm by which the viewer determines whether to stand or remain in the chair looks like this:
- If a get up;
- If a
get up; - If a
get up; - Otherwise sit;
Simple example
For example, in the hall 100 people. The threshold T of each viewer is 45%, and the quality of the show Q is 35%. Some person A will rise only under the condition that
, it means e should be greater than 10. If the spread of opinions in the hall is small: e varies from -15 to +15, then you can see the result in the picture below. Blue indicates the sitting audience share, green - standing.Increasing the range of opinions, that is, expanding the range of values ​​of e to [-35, 35], we obtain the following picture:
Consequently, the higher the dispersion of opinions (the more “motley” the audience in the hall), the higher the probability of getting an ovation.
Considering that you don’t see the whole hall, but only a certain part of it, the most important is the opinion about the performance of those sitting in the front rows.
It is important that if one member of the group gets up, all the others follow. From this it follows that the larger groups of spectators come to the play, the more standing ovation is more likely.
You can play with the cellular automaton, see what happens when the input parameters change, you can directly in the browser (wrote the implementation in Javascript ).
To summarize To maximize the probability of ovation, you must:
- First of all, to give a quality performance;
- Increase the range of opinions: make the play controversial and outrageous, or invite a diverse audience to the show. Alternatively, if you know exactly who will like the show, it is better to invite them;
- To make the show like the first rows;
- Invite a family, company of friends or colleagues to a performance;
- Invite an inexperienced audience, which is easier to impress;
- Invite a few people who can do something on their own, without regard to society, and those who primarily focus on the opinions of others;
What does all of this mean?
With regard to the promotion of a startup, this means the following:
- Of course, do it well;
- Show it to the widest possible, diverse audience and, first of all, “target”;
- To lure presidents, actors, scientists into their users - “the first rows” of society;
- Motivate users to invite friends, relatives, colleagues;
- Show the project to inexperienced masses who have not seen analogues (if they exist);
- And once again, of course, make it good;
Naturally, this model can be extrapolated not only to start-ups, but also to any situation where every member of society has to make a binary decision (yes / no): do you start smoking? Do I go to university? To create a family? Buy a car? Do you have a dog? Do you play sports? Should I start programming?
Materials on the topic
- Small site about Standing Ovations ;
- An article on the JASSS magazine website, illustrated with a Java applet ;
- 2006 Miller and Page Article (PDF) ;
- Lecture Paige on the Coursera ;
Unfortunately, all materials are in English. I did not find Russian speakers, and I was not looking very actively. If someone throws - add to the post, I will be grateful.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/183504/
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