Study luck

In my surroundings, some time ago, it was decided to scold economists, or rather, people involved in economics as a scientific field. I have always felt sorry for people who mostly use mathematical tools in their work. However, finding a good argument in their favor was not possible. Now I’ve finished reading the book The Great On Your Own , by Jim Collins and Morten Hansen. And I want to believe that I have such an argument.

There is a high probability that this book is a popular presentation of the serious scientific work of both authors. In general, the pages of the book are very closely considered by several "twin companies", where one of the company became the undisputed leader, and the second, under similar conditions, as an outsider. In general, I didn’t like the choice of companies, although I think the authors had their own reasons for choosing, and moreover, at the end of the book, the methodology on the basis of which the choice was made is given (a very good description, I must say).


There are more than 450 pages in the book and here you see the Epilogue at 275 - this is discouraging. The rest of the book’s space is occupied by applications and other calculations, including a substantial list of references.

As a technical manager, it was interesting for me to read a series of chapters, I really liked the discipline:

In essence, discipline is consistency, loyalty to values ​​and long-term goals, adherence to work requirements, following a certain method. Do not mix discipline with regulation, submission within the hierarchy, the imposition of bureaucratic rules. True discipline means independence of the mind, which is opposed to pressure and does not agree to what is contrary to its values, its requirements for work, its long-term plans. The only kind of discipline inherent in tenth-grade leaders is self-discipline, will and willingness for the great goal of everything.

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The authors introduce an excellent term - “Ten-Years”, and actively use it throughout the book, for example:

Ten-disciples embody this responsibility based on three behavioral principles: fanatical discipline, empirical creativity, and productive paranoia.

Social psychologists say that in a situation of uncertainty, most people tend to seek advice from others - to authority figures, to friends, to the norms of their social group. Ten-law students, while plotting their route in uncertain circumstances, do not look back at traditional ideas and how others are doing. They do not care even the opinion of experts and gurus. They focus entirely on empirical data.

Certainly I liked the work on researching good luck, this is the part of the book that I read twice:

“Event of luck” we call such an event that meets the three main criteria: 1) some element of this event completely or largely arose regardless of the actions of key participants; 2) the event potentially entailed significant (good or bad) consequences; 3) there is an element of unpredictability in the event.

There are two gradations of luck:
Luck is “pure” when the occurrence of an event is completely independent of the actions of key company figures.
“Partial” luck when the occurrence of an event is largely (but not entirely) independent of the actions of key company figures. An event can be attributed to partial luck, if some of its essential aspects could not be altered (caused or prevented) by key figures with all their experience and skill.

Good luck and bad luck are not symmetrical: even the most wonderful luck will not turn a company into a great one, as if by magic. But one misfortune may be enough to throw the company on the line of death, and a series of failures can lead to disaster.

The following thought made me think the most about the book:

The leaders of great and long-lasting companies are capable of paradoxes, they simultaneously accept two opposing ideas. They do not obey "tyranny" or "", which forces people to choose either A or B, but just do not take both together. No, the best leaders are exempt from such a choice thanks to the genius of the union "and" - the ability to connect extremes, to take simultaneously different parameters. In the words of Francis Scott Fitzgerald, "a first-class mind is tested by the ability to hold two conflicting ideas at the same time and at the same time maintain the ability to function."

The book "The Great at Your Own Choice " by Jim Collins and Morten Hansen, rich in mathematical spirit and economic thinking, I would recommend to read to those who already work in senior positions in medium and large companies. To me, it seemed dryish, although, of course, useful.

P.S. What struck me most was the phrase that was not confirmed by any data and at the same time produced the maximum effect on me: “ In strange circumstances, the strangest person becomes the leader .”