Development Prospects: Singularity and "Reasonable Governance"
Every day - technological news. Every week is a discovery. Every month - a breakthrough. Every six months - an important fundamental study. It's hard to keep track of all this: the singularity is near. This is talked about in "technomir", but not audible in the ordinary.
Prerequisites: automation, creation of artificial implants, neural networks, augmented reality, a number of articles and comments on Habré, Cnet, Popular Science, MIT technological review and several other similar news portals. From the last - Human Revolution on Habré, which once again prompted the need for publication.
Consequences: “World Noon”, “World Academy” (Foundation / Foundation), “World Golden Ring”
')
Alternative: “The Matrix”, “Terminator”, “1984”, “World We”, “World Neuromant”
So what's waiting for us? (Too lazy to read - a short summary has been created as a PPS)
For the last three years I have been following the progress, eager to participate in it: I'm still 18 years old and I'm not even at the university. More and more interested in systems analysis and critical thinking, wanting to work in this area. I develop a variety of models - at home and the city, society and state. I try to take into account all recent achievements, all interrelations ... And it is very difficult to keep up with both. Every day - technological news. Every week is a discovery. Every month - a breakthrough. Every six months - an important fundamental study. It's hard to keep track of all this: the singularity is near. This is talked about in "technomir", but not audible in the ordinary. “Technomir” for me is a certain stratum, technical and scientific intelligentsia, which do not limit their range of interests, expanding it, who can not follow the progress of mankind, expecting, like me, Technological Singularity. Naturally, with a certain anticipation and awe. We are awaiting the coming of the created phenomenon by us as the coming of the horsemen of Armageddon. Have you heard? Humanity is afraid of its offspring!
But no, we are all the same people as in the Renaissance. We are also inclined to believe and fear. Not all, but many of us suffer from the “Frankenstein complex”. Many ... And who is not? The same intelligentsia that creates the future on the fronts of science and technology, on the fronts not of the people and nations, but of Humanity. This may be a modest recluse-scientist, and maybe - the head of the technical department of one of the largest corporations. No matter. Thinking is important here.
It is important not to limit yourself, not to stop your development. Most technicians are valuable precisely because they adapt to new conditions much easier. They know the principles of work and refer to sources for detail. They master new algorithms in record time for an adult. They are like children. As children in terms of knowledge of the world, but not in terms of interaction with it. You know what it is to see a stone and to be able to look into its structure, into the earth on which it lies, to the forces of friction and gravity ... This is an indescribable feeling. As if you can just go to another layer of information, having learned the secret, to be on par with God ...
Many technology experts everywhere are looking for algorithms. Whether it is in the work of an official or in the timetable of the work of trains - it is already impossible without algorithms: everything must be clearly, logically and structured! This is a professional deformation of programmers and not only. They see the imperfection of the world and even could improve it, but nobody needs it. Moreover, people actively resist change. As if approaching the issue of management wisely, winning this aspect from Case and Evolution, the world would become worse! As if we could not improve the tools, even nature itself, in order to live better!
Now we come close to another milestone. There are several of them. Three, to be exact. Three that I see. And all of them cause awe at the prospects, complexity and, at the same time, unnaturalness ... Three frontiers, which only complement each other, which are unthinkable without each other, which are harmful without each other ...
Frontier first. Artificial intelligence and robots. Humanoid robots, universal robots. No matter how much we want to get rid of the Frankenstein complex by creating highly specialized mechanisms, this is a way without a future. Someone is close to another point of view. Well, I do not dare to persuade. Just as tigers or mammoths have been supplanted by a weak, but universal person, so robots are more likely to be universal. What is the problem? Wouldn't IskAn become smarter than the creator? Will the riot of the machines begin? Here I can not say anything: I consider these fears to be groundless, for all the same the machine is created by man. A tool endowed with the ability to think (for example, a small child sent for water) is unlikely to intentionally harm. However, leaving this controversy for later, I send you to re-read Isaac Asimov again, in order. The Academy (Foundation / Foundation), of course, you can not read, or rather, do not reread, but in the future I will still refer to it.
The turn of the second. Bioengineering. The unity of man and mechanisms. 03/11/2013 Announced neuroimplant, allowing you to manage peripheral. Google Glass on the way. Electronics on the skin. Implantable NFC. Mechanical prostheses that support human life. Sometimes these dentures are even better created by nature. Every new generation is getting better at mastering technology. Even me, a person who has been involved in technology since the age of five, has to admit that some students are much more knowledgeable, say, in the Jailbreak of smartphones or OS versions, while I have to “smoke mana”. I remind you, I am 18 years old. The fact that they create gray-haired (or quite young and active, is not important) scientists, children understand the best. Their flexibility of thinking, which is envied by most adults, allows them to experience the world with incredible speed. They do not need to search for information in the hundredth page of Google, or, God forbid (the atheist himself, this is a speech turn), in encyclopedias or even archives! No, everything is easier. Information, free access to it (copyright lovers - start throwing stones), makes us more and more adapted to the transition to a computerized way of life. Pure consciousness! Is it so important whether you have a mechanical hand or a real one if it acts? Does it matter if your heart is in your chest or a mechanical pump? The main thing is your brain, your abilities, your skills. Hawking is an example. And if so - not long before the creation of avatars, controlled by consciousness. Recall neuroimplants, the experience of transmitting electronic impulses generated by neurons from one brain to another, and “quantum teleportation”. For some reason it seems to me that soon the youngest generation will plunge into augmented reality, creating from it completely virtual. Here the main thing - do not lose your head from the taste of Freedom. On this subject, I advise you to re-read the Strugatsky - "Predatory things of the century." In general, the best of books describing society, in my opinion.
Here we come to the third line. So far, the most implicit, but from no less important. This is reasonable control (As a science, Cybernetics / General Systems Theory / Control Theory / Optimal Control). Automation, universal and total. Global datasets, complex systems that interact with each other for the best possible allocation of resources and problem solving. This is “Smart Planet”. The mind gradually penetrates into all areas of control. These are adjustable transport and passenger flows based on video analysis, these are “smart” automation systems that provide energy efficiency, comfort and much more, this is a search for the most relevant information from the entire Knowledge Bank of Mankind, and electronic interaction between the government and citizens ...
As much as I would like now, being in such a joyful way, to talk about politics, but I have to. Therefore briefly: either we will develop a system that allows the authorities to most effectively meet the needs of citizens according to the Maslow pyramid, maximize the use of available resources, work as efficiently as possible, or we will drown in the world of bureaucracy. With such an avalanche-like growth of information, neither a person nor a group of people can cope ... Only cars. Cut officials, rewrite laws, aligning them with each other and with reality, make automated execution of routine operations. This is what we need, at a minimum, to achieve in politics. Otherwise, there are two possible ways: either stupid laws or weak power. The first is the inhibition of development, the second is social upheaval. No sensible official will want to be trampled, preferring to give up power and heal himself by the laws (of course, not by what he wrote, but by what is best for humanity). This concludes the policy overview.
A reasonable state with reasonable laws, reasonable infrastructure ... How to make reasonable people? Only training. Critical thinking, logic, mathematics and systems analysis to the masses! This is not the position of a technician calling for the abandonment of humanities, it’s just the desire that people use the brain more, and not instincts and feelings. After all, it was he who helped us survive, he pushed us on the path of curiosity and knowledge, he made us people. Of course, one should not give up feelings, it’s just time to step over the animal “I” and replace the instincts with intelligent, conscious actions. Complicated? By no means.
Just one installation: "You are always responsible for your words and for your actions." It fits perfectly into religion and ideology. Only one installation - and people will begin to adequately assess the risks, think more. And there, you see, we grow up to civil society. It is necessary to completely revise the entire social structure, all social and political life, all legal norms and all economic models, it is necessary to revise everything! Reconsider, and understand, to get to the bottom of what is the root of the problems, which leads us to repeat the mistakes. Revise, understand and improve. And not on the scale of a single enterprise, no, but on a scale if not the entire planet, then the state for sure. What for? Otherwise, we risk losing the first or second line. Or maybe both at once. We can lose it in two ways: returning to normal or losing control over the situation. I remind you that the Singularity is close, and humanity risks losing control over what is happening. Perspectives draw yourself?
If you nevertheless decide, and reread the Academy (Foundation / Foundation), then you remember the science of Psychohistory. Complicated mathematical science that describes and predicts the behavior of large groups of people. Gary Seldon, if he existed, must exist today, for then it may be late: it is better to pass the third frontier from the first time! Imagine these lines as three obstacles. Reasonable management - in the middle. We can stall on it, passing the other two, or one other, but then, figuratively speaking, the stretched rubber will not stand and bounce back. Strong back. So the risk of rebound and Humanity. Of course, this is not critical and not at all fatal: Humanity is too stable thing, you can’t arm it, as one of the “Picnic” heroes said ... But who wants to step on the same rake again and again, despite our bloodthirsty rake? Or all at once, or better none. But Gary Seldon is not there, and Prudent Management should arise soon. So you have to do it yourself. As if no one cares about us (irony)!
But how can you work with such complex systems? Only together. Therefore, I propose in general a trivial thing. Create one large-scale mental map of society. To paint on it all the needs, all the interactions, all the objects, all the subjects, the definitions ... And when the edits are no longer active, start working with it. Individual contribution with mass support will require a small, but everyone will benefit. At least in this map it will be possible to pry as in the reference book. Wikipedia was going to somehow!
Anticipating the following comments: You owe nothing to anyone. And I don’t owe you anything (though still thanks for reading to here), I just want to make the world a little bit better, contribute to progress as much as I can. Many scream about the mental and spiritual poverty of progress, about spiritlessness. I think that the problem is still in insufficient rationality, in too long following the paths of Case and Evolution. Man has already outgrown them and with might and main reworking nature for himself, even reworking himself. Why should he not even redo the structure? So here. No one owes nothing to nobody. But since we are working on progress, we must work on it qualitatively. What have I done? Little. Very little. Model of the city. Model of the state. A couple more models ... They are subjective, and to objectivity they lack mature criticism and polishing by other people. They are all in the public domain, and everyone can do what they want with them. Model of the city - sites.google.com/site/modernopolis The model of the state is not yet merged, but most of it is here - sip-of-free.blogspot.ru/2012/11/blog-post.html (You may not agree with me More than possible, since this model is primarily for me. Therefore, the questions are likely to be, and a lot. Ask them better in the BOS, so as not to clutter up the comments).
Why write about it? I cannot leave these experiences within me. Probably, I am mistaken, and the success in “Smart Control” will be just as soon and just as impressive. For example, habraquotes.ru/quote/637 , if Watson does not want to later take matters into their own hands. Probably, this is a simple fear of the future, or a banal youthful maximalism. But since there is even a fraction of the probability that I am right, and that Humanity is in danger of losing control over its further development, I write for good reason. Yes, the scale is impressive. The task seems, if there is one, insoluble even for society. But why not try to solve it at least on the basis of a hobby? So we hardly even lose our time: it would have been eaten by something else. I already connect my future with the analysis of complex systems, but you, specialists, what do you think about this? Waiting for your comments. Waiting for your criticism. I look forward to the discussion: in disputes truth is born, and who, if not more experienced comrades, will be able to explain to you your mistakes and delusions, or appreciate your labors?
If anyone is interested (I recommend only to my peers) - the intended plan of my personal work (wrote for peers, so it is not decorated in the appropriate way, but ...): docs.google.com/document/d/148d9eh-87lMCaCnuQMiOCun-7TXQFagoBt8QmZ8OZUU/edit ? usp = sharing
PS I am driven by one idea - to make the world a better place. And therefore if I have offended someone inadvertently - I ask you to excuse me: not from evil.
PPS Brief Summary:
0. Progress is relentless and chaotic, both in technology and in science. There is no single, systematic research front, and there never was, which does not exclude its appearance in the future.
1. Mankind more than once in the best of intentions created the most powerful weapon. Moreover, with the support of the state and public protests.
2. The arrival of a technological singularity will most likely make necessary the redistribution of scientific resources: you will have to plan the development of science and technology, because there are not enough scientists for everyone (remember the appeal of IT companies to the US government).
3. Planning of science will lead to a re-establishment of a multitude of structures: first business, then economy and infrastructure, then governments, and finally, society. The goal of planning will be optimal control (reasonable control) - maximum efficiency at minimum cost.
4. In the absence of proper planning, one of the two technologies, Artificial Intelligence or Biotechnology (including virtual reality) will lead Humanity to a critical point, after which society will be transformed beyond recognition. In the first case, this is either a war against cars, or the transfer of control to IskIn (unfortunately, I don’t remember the work, about the information virus, which itself evolved, became the uncontrollable creator and seized power over the entire infrastructure). In the second - the immersion of the majority of the population in a virtual reality, commercially beneficial and legal drug. Matrix, simply put. In the event that none of these scenarios occurs, then “only” there will be an increasing shortage of scientists and simply savvy people. It will not be personnel wars, but something worse. States and corporations will fight for their minds, creating, in fact, a separate caste of specialists. Perhaps this path will lead to technocracy, but, most likely, to the decline of science.
5. In the case, if planning will be carried out only by one of the parties, be it the state, business or trade unions, there will be no special benefit: the plans will be “sharpened” under the creator. Therefore, from the very beginning, it is up to society to take the initiative and on a voluntary basis, in the status of the public domain, to begin work on this problem. This will entail a sharp reduction in inefficient institutions, directing resources where they are needed. If it is more profitable - the person will be replaced by the machine. Cruel. Cynically. But in the end it’s better for the whole society: we are for long-term development, aren’t we?
6. , , , , () .
7. , . /, .
8. , , .
Prerequisites: automation, creation of artificial implants, neural networks, augmented reality, a number of articles and comments on Habré, Cnet, Popular Science, MIT technological review and several other similar news portals. From the last - Human Revolution on Habré, which once again prompted the need for publication.
Consequences: “World Noon”, “World Academy” (Foundation / Foundation), “World Golden Ring”
')
Alternative: “The Matrix”, “Terminator”, “1984”, “World We”, “World Neuromant”
So what's waiting for us? (Too lazy to read - a short summary has been created as a PPS)
For the last three years I have been following the progress, eager to participate in it: I'm still 18 years old and I'm not even at the university. More and more interested in systems analysis and critical thinking, wanting to work in this area. I develop a variety of models - at home and the city, society and state. I try to take into account all recent achievements, all interrelations ... And it is very difficult to keep up with both. Every day - technological news. Every week is a discovery. Every month - a breakthrough. Every six months - an important fundamental study. It's hard to keep track of all this: the singularity is near. This is talked about in "technomir", but not audible in the ordinary. “Technomir” for me is a certain stratum, technical and scientific intelligentsia, which do not limit their range of interests, expanding it, who can not follow the progress of mankind, expecting, like me, Technological Singularity. Naturally, with a certain anticipation and awe. We are awaiting the coming of the created phenomenon by us as the coming of the horsemen of Armageddon. Have you heard? Humanity is afraid of its offspring!
But no, we are all the same people as in the Renaissance. We are also inclined to believe and fear. Not all, but many of us suffer from the “Frankenstein complex”. Many ... And who is not? The same intelligentsia that creates the future on the fronts of science and technology, on the fronts not of the people and nations, but of Humanity. This may be a modest recluse-scientist, and maybe - the head of the technical department of one of the largest corporations. No matter. Thinking is important here.
It is important not to limit yourself, not to stop your development. Most technicians are valuable precisely because they adapt to new conditions much easier. They know the principles of work and refer to sources for detail. They master new algorithms in record time for an adult. They are like children. As children in terms of knowledge of the world, but not in terms of interaction with it. You know what it is to see a stone and to be able to look into its structure, into the earth on which it lies, to the forces of friction and gravity ... This is an indescribable feeling. As if you can just go to another layer of information, having learned the secret, to be on par with God ...
Many technology experts everywhere are looking for algorithms. Whether it is in the work of an official or in the timetable of the work of trains - it is already impossible without algorithms: everything must be clearly, logically and structured! This is a professional deformation of programmers and not only. They see the imperfection of the world and even could improve it, but nobody needs it. Moreover, people actively resist change. As if approaching the issue of management wisely, winning this aspect from Case and Evolution, the world would become worse! As if we could not improve the tools, even nature itself, in order to live better!
Now we come close to another milestone. There are several of them. Three, to be exact. Three that I see. And all of them cause awe at the prospects, complexity and, at the same time, unnaturalness ... Three frontiers, which only complement each other, which are unthinkable without each other, which are harmful without each other ...
Frontier first. Artificial intelligence and robots. Humanoid robots, universal robots. No matter how much we want to get rid of the Frankenstein complex by creating highly specialized mechanisms, this is a way without a future. Someone is close to another point of view. Well, I do not dare to persuade. Just as tigers or mammoths have been supplanted by a weak, but universal person, so robots are more likely to be universal. What is the problem? Wouldn't IskAn become smarter than the creator? Will the riot of the machines begin? Here I can not say anything: I consider these fears to be groundless, for all the same the machine is created by man. A tool endowed with the ability to think (for example, a small child sent for water) is unlikely to intentionally harm. However, leaving this controversy for later, I send you to re-read Isaac Asimov again, in order. The Academy (Foundation / Foundation), of course, you can not read, or rather, do not reread, but in the future I will still refer to it.
The turn of the second. Bioengineering. The unity of man and mechanisms. 03/11/2013 Announced neuroimplant, allowing you to manage peripheral. Google Glass on the way. Electronics on the skin. Implantable NFC. Mechanical prostheses that support human life. Sometimes these dentures are even better created by nature. Every new generation is getting better at mastering technology. Even me, a person who has been involved in technology since the age of five, has to admit that some students are much more knowledgeable, say, in the Jailbreak of smartphones or OS versions, while I have to “smoke mana”. I remind you, I am 18 years old. The fact that they create gray-haired (or quite young and active, is not important) scientists, children understand the best. Their flexibility of thinking, which is envied by most adults, allows them to experience the world with incredible speed. They do not need to search for information in the hundredth page of Google, or, God forbid (the atheist himself, this is a speech turn), in encyclopedias or even archives! No, everything is easier. Information, free access to it (copyright lovers - start throwing stones), makes us more and more adapted to the transition to a computerized way of life. Pure consciousness! Is it so important whether you have a mechanical hand or a real one if it acts? Does it matter if your heart is in your chest or a mechanical pump? The main thing is your brain, your abilities, your skills. Hawking is an example. And if so - not long before the creation of avatars, controlled by consciousness. Recall neuroimplants, the experience of transmitting electronic impulses generated by neurons from one brain to another, and “quantum teleportation”. For some reason it seems to me that soon the youngest generation will plunge into augmented reality, creating from it completely virtual. Here the main thing - do not lose your head from the taste of Freedom. On this subject, I advise you to re-read the Strugatsky - "Predatory things of the century." In general, the best of books describing society, in my opinion.
Here we come to the third line. So far, the most implicit, but from no less important. This is reasonable control (As a science, Cybernetics / General Systems Theory / Control Theory / Optimal Control). Automation, universal and total. Global datasets, complex systems that interact with each other for the best possible allocation of resources and problem solving. This is “Smart Planet”. The mind gradually penetrates into all areas of control. These are adjustable transport and passenger flows based on video analysis, these are “smart” automation systems that provide energy efficiency, comfort and much more, this is a search for the most relevant information from the entire Knowledge Bank of Mankind, and electronic interaction between the government and citizens ...
As much as I would like now, being in such a joyful way, to talk about politics, but I have to. Therefore briefly: either we will develop a system that allows the authorities to most effectively meet the needs of citizens according to the Maslow pyramid, maximize the use of available resources, work as efficiently as possible, or we will drown in the world of bureaucracy. With such an avalanche-like growth of information, neither a person nor a group of people can cope ... Only cars. Cut officials, rewrite laws, aligning them with each other and with reality, make automated execution of routine operations. This is what we need, at a minimum, to achieve in politics. Otherwise, there are two possible ways: either stupid laws or weak power. The first is the inhibition of development, the second is social upheaval. No sensible official will want to be trampled, preferring to give up power and heal himself by the laws (of course, not by what he wrote, but by what is best for humanity). This concludes the policy overview.
A reasonable state with reasonable laws, reasonable infrastructure ... How to make reasonable people? Only training. Critical thinking, logic, mathematics and systems analysis to the masses! This is not the position of a technician calling for the abandonment of humanities, it’s just the desire that people use the brain more, and not instincts and feelings. After all, it was he who helped us survive, he pushed us on the path of curiosity and knowledge, he made us people. Of course, one should not give up feelings, it’s just time to step over the animal “I” and replace the instincts with intelligent, conscious actions. Complicated? By no means.
Just one installation: "You are always responsible for your words and for your actions." It fits perfectly into religion and ideology. Only one installation - and people will begin to adequately assess the risks, think more. And there, you see, we grow up to civil society. It is necessary to completely revise the entire social structure, all social and political life, all legal norms and all economic models, it is necessary to revise everything! Reconsider, and understand, to get to the bottom of what is the root of the problems, which leads us to repeat the mistakes. Revise, understand and improve. And not on the scale of a single enterprise, no, but on a scale if not the entire planet, then the state for sure. What for? Otherwise, we risk losing the first or second line. Or maybe both at once. We can lose it in two ways: returning to normal or losing control over the situation. I remind you that the Singularity is close, and humanity risks losing control over what is happening. Perspectives draw yourself?
If you nevertheless decide, and reread the Academy (Foundation / Foundation), then you remember the science of Psychohistory. Complicated mathematical science that describes and predicts the behavior of large groups of people. Gary Seldon, if he existed, must exist today, for then it may be late: it is better to pass the third frontier from the first time! Imagine these lines as three obstacles. Reasonable management - in the middle. We can stall on it, passing the other two, or one other, but then, figuratively speaking, the stretched rubber will not stand and bounce back. Strong back. So the risk of rebound and Humanity. Of course, this is not critical and not at all fatal: Humanity is too stable thing, you can’t arm it, as one of the “Picnic” heroes said ... But who wants to step on the same rake again and again, despite our bloodthirsty rake? Or all at once, or better none. But Gary Seldon is not there, and Prudent Management should arise soon. So you have to do it yourself. As if no one cares about us (irony)!
But how can you work with such complex systems? Only together. Therefore, I propose in general a trivial thing. Create one large-scale mental map of society. To paint on it all the needs, all the interactions, all the objects, all the subjects, the definitions ... And when the edits are no longer active, start working with it. Individual contribution with mass support will require a small, but everyone will benefit. At least in this map it will be possible to pry as in the reference book. Wikipedia was going to somehow!
Anticipating the following comments: You owe nothing to anyone. And I don’t owe you anything (though still thanks for reading to here), I just want to make the world a little bit better, contribute to progress as much as I can. Many scream about the mental and spiritual poverty of progress, about spiritlessness. I think that the problem is still in insufficient rationality, in too long following the paths of Case and Evolution. Man has already outgrown them and with might and main reworking nature for himself, even reworking himself. Why should he not even redo the structure? So here. No one owes nothing to nobody. But since we are working on progress, we must work on it qualitatively. What have I done? Little. Very little. Model of the city. Model of the state. A couple more models ... They are subjective, and to objectivity they lack mature criticism and polishing by other people. They are all in the public domain, and everyone can do what they want with them. Model of the city - sites.google.com/site/modernopolis The model of the state is not yet merged, but most of it is here - sip-of-free.blogspot.ru/2012/11/blog-post.html (You may not agree with me More than possible, since this model is primarily for me. Therefore, the questions are likely to be, and a lot. Ask them better in the BOS, so as not to clutter up the comments).
Why write about it? I cannot leave these experiences within me. Probably, I am mistaken, and the success in “Smart Control” will be just as soon and just as impressive. For example, habraquotes.ru/quote/637 , if Watson does not want to later take matters into their own hands. Probably, this is a simple fear of the future, or a banal youthful maximalism. But since there is even a fraction of the probability that I am right, and that Humanity is in danger of losing control over its further development, I write for good reason. Yes, the scale is impressive. The task seems, if there is one, insoluble even for society. But why not try to solve it at least on the basis of a hobby? So we hardly even lose our time: it would have been eaten by something else. I already connect my future with the analysis of complex systems, but you, specialists, what do you think about this? Waiting for your comments. Waiting for your criticism. I look forward to the discussion: in disputes truth is born, and who, if not more experienced comrades, will be able to explain to you your mistakes and delusions, or appreciate your labors?
If anyone is interested (I recommend only to my peers) - the intended plan of my personal work (wrote for peers, so it is not decorated in the appropriate way, but ...): docs.google.com/document/d/148d9eh-87lMCaCnuQMiOCun-7TXQFagoBt8QmZ8OZUU/edit ? usp = sharing
PS I am driven by one idea - to make the world a better place. And therefore if I have offended someone inadvertently - I ask you to excuse me: not from evil.
PPS Brief Summary:
0. Progress is relentless and chaotic, both in technology and in science. There is no single, systematic research front, and there never was, which does not exclude its appearance in the future.
1. Mankind more than once in the best of intentions created the most powerful weapon. Moreover, with the support of the state and public protests.
2. The arrival of a technological singularity will most likely make necessary the redistribution of scientific resources: you will have to plan the development of science and technology, because there are not enough scientists for everyone (remember the appeal of IT companies to the US government).
3. Planning of science will lead to a re-establishment of a multitude of structures: first business, then economy and infrastructure, then governments, and finally, society. The goal of planning will be optimal control (reasonable control) - maximum efficiency at minimum cost.
4. In the absence of proper planning, one of the two technologies, Artificial Intelligence or Biotechnology (including virtual reality) will lead Humanity to a critical point, after which society will be transformed beyond recognition. In the first case, this is either a war against cars, or the transfer of control to IskIn (unfortunately, I don’t remember the work, about the information virus, which itself evolved, became the uncontrollable creator and seized power over the entire infrastructure). In the second - the immersion of the majority of the population in a virtual reality, commercially beneficial and legal drug. Matrix, simply put. In the event that none of these scenarios occurs, then “only” there will be an increasing shortage of scientists and simply savvy people. It will not be personnel wars, but something worse. States and corporations will fight for their minds, creating, in fact, a separate caste of specialists. Perhaps this path will lead to technocracy, but, most likely, to the decline of science.
5. In the case, if planning will be carried out only by one of the parties, be it the state, business or trade unions, there will be no special benefit: the plans will be “sharpened” under the creator. Therefore, from the very beginning, it is up to society to take the initiative and on a voluntary basis, in the status of the public domain, to begin work on this problem. This will entail a sharp reduction in inefficient institutions, directing resources where they are needed. If it is more profitable - the person will be replaced by the machine. Cruel. Cynically. But in the end it’s better for the whole society: we are for long-term development, aren’t we?
6. , , , , () .
7. , . /, .
8. , , .
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/173433/
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