Google is predicting the end
The history of high technology knows many cruel examples of rapid ascension to the top of the business and equally rapid fall. In 1995, they figured out how to store words on web pages in the form of indexes, which allow them to find information at lightning speed. The resulting Alta Vista search engine quickly became the favorite site of the first Internet users. Few people now remember its struggle with young competitors from Yahoo! .. And few people remember how badly both systems were looking for information on sites that were few at that time. When, in 1998, rumors about a new search engine from a tiny company with a stupid name Google, which gave more suitable results, Yahoo !, having tempted a different idea, made a monstrous mistake: put the Google search box on your home page.
So tens of millions of users have learned about the new search engine. When the competitors realized, it was too late - the network did not even see the site more popular than Google. According to analysts from the comScore marketing agency, it accounts for 60% of all search queries. In second place with a large margin - Yahoo! (14%), and the great Microsoft lags in the tail (4%). The verb to google, meaning "search on the Internet." At the same time, Google figured out how to extract a lot of money from its dominant position - a coup in Internet advertising took place. According to the data of last week, its share capital is estimated at $ 200 billion, which is more than five times more than Yahoo !, and makes up almost three-quarters of Microsoft's capital.
Now Google threatens to shake up trillionth markets of corporate computers and wireless technologies. But, as you know, from love to hate in this business is one “click”: the monopoly has long infuriated the governments of the largest countries and is scaring the magnates of Wall Street. But, as it turns out, this monopoly may well collapse, as its predecessor Alta Vista.
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Billions are spent on diversifying Google features. However, more than 80% of its profits are still earned from advertisements placed on the home page of a search engine with a minimalist, almost childish design. This means that the success of a company is determined by its leadership in the main function - a simple search. And there is no guarantee that this leadership will continue.
First, Google began to look worse than in times of market conquest. Information volumes have since grown many times over, and an army of optimizers has appeared on the Web, deceiving the search engine in favor of their clients.
Secondly, the developers of new search engines, of which many have appeared in many different countries of the world, are well aware of these problems. And they promise to open a new magic search algorithm.
Perhaps, Google will manage to stay on top due to the development of its other projects - and the exchange, of course, puts on it. But this is a dangerous bet - it is likely that in 5 years we will be perplexed: what did we find on Google? "They won the first stages of the network search race," said Trip Chouddury, an analyst at US-based Global Equities Research. “But they won’t win the next one.”
OLD ENEMY ARE WORSE OF NEW TWO
Google is a second generation search engine. First-generation search engines, such as Alta Vista, were looking for web pages that contain the same words that were in the user's query, and gave the result in an almost random list. Google's innovation was to sort the pages found by the number of links to them (the more links - the more useful the page). In 1998, many said with admiration that the search engine had penetrated their brain and was looking for exactly what was needed. Now hardly anyone agrees with this enthusiastic assessment.
According to analyst Charles Knight, who runs the Alt Search Engines website, today there are a lot of valuable ideas about what the third generation search engine can bring; There is no shortage of companies willing to implement these ideas. “Each one of them has proven that it can do a particular aspect of the search better than Google,” Knight says.
Yahoo !, for example, struggles to outdo Google. One of the new features - quick access to the results of the most popular queries. For example, by entering a movie name in the search box, you get a link to the trailer and a schedule for its shows in local cinemas; by entering "restaurants" and the name of the city, get the options sorted by address, type of cuisine or popularity. And that's not all, says Vish Mahidzhani, head of Yahoo Search. “We will be able to determine when you simply collect information, and when you are ready to place an order, and place your order directly on the search page,” he promises.
Microsoft is also actively inventing new ways to combine its search engine Windows Live Search with other online and computer programs. So far, the popularity of the Windows operating system in competing with Google has not helped in any way - but everything is still ahead, I'm sure the general manager of Windows product management, Brad Goldberg. “We just started working on integrating search with our other resources,” he says. “We are inventing ways to capture what the user is doing and include it in the memory of a search engine.”
In theory, it looks like this: a search for the word “cola”, for example, will give the economist financial information about the Coca-Cola Corporation, and a student who writes a coursework in nutrition, a brief analysis of the nutritional qualities of a can of soda.
However, Google has an undeniable advantage - fame. A study published in August by the University of Michigan shows that last year Yahoo! overtook Google in customer satisfaction — that is, those who know believe that Yahoo! looking better But it didn’t have a strong impact on the share of competitors - Google still dominates. But sooner or later, users' dissatisfaction with a slightly tweaked search engine almost a decade ago can lead everyone to go in search of a better product, having left the former favorite. As already left Alta Vista.
“SIMPLICITY IS BETTER CHANGE”
Google is already losing ground in several key markets around the world. In South Korea - a country with a well-developed Internet industry - it accounts for less than 2% of all search queries, and in China - the main emerging Internet market - 17%. In Russia, Google is also hard at competing with Yandex.
In Western Europe, it still leads the search engines: in Germany, it accounts for 82% of all requests - but the German and French governments plan to invest $ 165 million and $ 122 million, respectively, in the development of a new search engine. The Japanese government is rumored to have invested $ 125 million in its own project, and Yahoo! there is ahead of google. In addition, despite the rumors that Google is preparing its own smartphone, the company has so far failed to become the leader of the promising online search market through mobile communications.
But most likely the main rival of Google will appear from obscurity. After all, Google itself was born that way, founded by modest Stanford graduate students Sergey Brin and Larry Page.
Already, many search engines go beyond the primitive search for matching words. Super-idea is clear to everyone - to make the car a little better understood what people want from it. And surely someone has already born the know-how, which will be the basis of the third generation search engine. In 2005–2006 venture capital firms invested $ 350 million in 79 new firms to develop search engines. Charles Knight of Alt Search Engines knows at least a thousand competitors, mostly American, who can give them ideas.
Some of the new search engines, including Mahalo and ChaCha, resort to the help of people - editors and consultants - in the preliminary selection of the most relevant pages for individual queries. You get more accurate results than Google, but only if the entered query is among those that the editors have already studied.
Another development vector is a narrow specialization. Google is browsing the entire Network - but you don’t need the entire Network. You will get more relevant results with a search engine that indexes a much smaller number of pages - only on a specific topic. Trulia selects offers to sell homes for you, Healthline helps you determine the possible diagnosis and treatment methods by symptoms, and Spock specializes in finding information about people.
According to analyst Knight, now the share of newcomers accounts for less than 5% of all requests. The main question - if any of them suddenly begin to grow rapidly, what will Google answer? While his younger rivals, of course, do not pull such a powerful investment in computer infrastructure, including, according to rumors, more than 450,000 servers. So here you will not see the lightning speed of Google - get ready to wait for the search results for a few tedious seconds. In addition, with its $ 12 billion in cash, Google can buy any newcomer company that poses a threat to it - just like last year he laid out $ 1.65 billion for YouTube, whose video prospectors threatened to overshadow its popularity.
But all the competitors in the world are not buying up - even by $ 12 billion. But catching up with Google in efficiency is not such a difficult task. So that Google will soon have to attend to the improvement of its search engine. And although there is no doubt about the company's innovative capabilities, when it comes to introducing new generation search technologies, she prefers to keep silent. “People don’t expect radical change from us,” said Matt Cutts, Google’s quality manager for search quality. “Our main task is to guarantee simplicity.”
In order to overthrow Google, it is not necessary to invent a sensational search engine - this can happen as a result of a slow leakage of queries into a wide variety of search engines, each of which is attractive in its own way. “It’s likely that soon we will witness how dozens or hundreds of specialized search engines will collectively throw Google off the top spot,” predicts Brant Bukowski, founder of Plus1 Marketing, an online search consulting company. One of Google’s owners, Sergey Brin, probably doesn’t remember, but in his homeland it is said that simplicity is worse than theft.
KILLS OF THE POSTER
Hammer in Ask.com spears (English "spears" or Spears) - and the system will offer you to continue the search in one of two directions: weapon or musical glam; and everything will be simple in Google - mixed up. A number of the most advanced search engines, such as the French KartOO and KooltTorch and the Russian Quintura, show the search categories in the form of graphic cards that help you choose the most appropriate one.
To demonstrate the benefits of Quintura, one of the three founders of the company, Jacob Sadchikov, undertakes himself. In the search box, he dials: "buy an apartment." Immediately to the left of the third of the screen, an interactive cloud of prompts is generated. A few seconds later, the phrase “buy an apartment” was overgrown with a dozen of related words within it - “house”, “elite”, “Moscow region”, “purchase” ...
Theoretically, it is possible to search for information with the help of such a cloud, even without defining exactly the final goal. “Even if the user doesn’t know what the word is connected with, a simple glance at the map will make it possible to understand what they eat it with,” explains Sadchikov Newsweek. “Here we press the cross over the word“ purchase ”- and all the results associated with this word“ float away ”,” Sadchikov clearly demonstrates.
Someday you can put a cross on Google, the creators of Quintura hope. With the help of their new system in the US, children are already taught how to work with the Internet - “so it’s more understandable” - but the developers are sure that it will also interest adults. Because - again, ideally - such a search engine is better at handling large amounts of information and tricky optimizers.
“Google once won due to the fact that it helped to give the relevant result to the first line and increased the size of the base. But now the same information is often repeated in different documents. Everyone quotes or steals from each other. Plus, there was a whole industry of earning money to ensure that customer sites come out for some requests in the first place, ”explains the disadvantages of Google Alexander Yershov, another founder of Quintura.
According to him, now the main problem of search engines is that the car and the person speak different languages. “We use the neural network algorithm. It allows you to work with information to unlimited depth. He builds associative connections, ”says Ershov. “If a search engine appears that will work like a human brain, Google will simply not have a place in the market,” adds Jacob Sadchikov.
Quintura in America put in the top ten alternative Google projects. According to the developers, “several million dollars” have already been invested in it. The bulk of the money came from Luxembourg. Investors are the same businessmen who have invested in Skype. Then Mangrove Capital Partners, having bought their wonderful means for Internet connection for $ 2 million from Estonian programmers, received $ 200 million at the output. “Since then, they have been looking for something interesting for a long time. I gave a couple of presentations, first by phone, then in Luxembourg, ”recalls Jacob Sadchikov. “When we signed the contract, we even raised a toast:“ For killing Google! ””.
The developers call their project “the killer of Google from Sergiev Posad” - forty programmers work on this project exactly in this ancient Moscow region. But on closer examination, all the stories about neural networks do not make Quintura - and other Google competitors - unconditional candidates for the creation of a new global search empire. The result is not too different from the usual, "Google". Quintura developers promise to enter the battle only in a year, when they will have their own database (now they use Yahoo! and Yandex databases).
However, there is no way to predict whose idea — and especially in whose hands — will revolutionize the market. Even Alta Vista has a chance to get a slice of “Google” cake. On a site with a nostalgic name is still hanging search engine. But it has its zest: unlike Google, it allows you to quickly search the web for audio files.
Via Russian Newsweek
So tens of millions of users have learned about the new search engine. When the competitors realized, it was too late - the network did not even see the site more popular than Google. According to analysts from the comScore marketing agency, it accounts for 60% of all search queries. In second place with a large margin - Yahoo! (14%), and the great Microsoft lags in the tail (4%). The verb to google, meaning "search on the Internet." At the same time, Google figured out how to extract a lot of money from its dominant position - a coup in Internet advertising took place. According to the data of last week, its share capital is estimated at $ 200 billion, which is more than five times more than Yahoo !, and makes up almost three-quarters of Microsoft's capital.
Now Google threatens to shake up trillionth markets of corporate computers and wireless technologies. But, as you know, from love to hate in this business is one “click”: the monopoly has long infuriated the governments of the largest countries and is scaring the magnates of Wall Street. But, as it turns out, this monopoly may well collapse, as its predecessor Alta Vista.
')
Billions are spent on diversifying Google features. However, more than 80% of its profits are still earned from advertisements placed on the home page of a search engine with a minimalist, almost childish design. This means that the success of a company is determined by its leadership in the main function - a simple search. And there is no guarantee that this leadership will continue.
First, Google began to look worse than in times of market conquest. Information volumes have since grown many times over, and an army of optimizers has appeared on the Web, deceiving the search engine in favor of their clients.
Secondly, the developers of new search engines, of which many have appeared in many different countries of the world, are well aware of these problems. And they promise to open a new magic search algorithm.
Perhaps, Google will manage to stay on top due to the development of its other projects - and the exchange, of course, puts on it. But this is a dangerous bet - it is likely that in 5 years we will be perplexed: what did we find on Google? "They won the first stages of the network search race," said Trip Chouddury, an analyst at US-based Global Equities Research. “But they won’t win the next one.”
OLD ENEMY ARE WORSE OF NEW TWO
Google is a second generation search engine. First-generation search engines, such as Alta Vista, were looking for web pages that contain the same words that were in the user's query, and gave the result in an almost random list. Google's innovation was to sort the pages found by the number of links to them (the more links - the more useful the page). In 1998, many said with admiration that the search engine had penetrated their brain and was looking for exactly what was needed. Now hardly anyone agrees with this enthusiastic assessment.
According to analyst Charles Knight, who runs the Alt Search Engines website, today there are a lot of valuable ideas about what the third generation search engine can bring; There is no shortage of companies willing to implement these ideas. “Each one of them has proven that it can do a particular aspect of the search better than Google,” Knight says.
Yahoo !, for example, struggles to outdo Google. One of the new features - quick access to the results of the most popular queries. For example, by entering a movie name in the search box, you get a link to the trailer and a schedule for its shows in local cinemas; by entering "restaurants" and the name of the city, get the options sorted by address, type of cuisine or popularity. And that's not all, says Vish Mahidzhani, head of Yahoo Search. “We will be able to determine when you simply collect information, and when you are ready to place an order, and place your order directly on the search page,” he promises.
Microsoft is also actively inventing new ways to combine its search engine Windows Live Search with other online and computer programs. So far, the popularity of the Windows operating system in competing with Google has not helped in any way - but everything is still ahead, I'm sure the general manager of Windows product management, Brad Goldberg. “We just started working on integrating search with our other resources,” he says. “We are inventing ways to capture what the user is doing and include it in the memory of a search engine.”
In theory, it looks like this: a search for the word “cola”, for example, will give the economist financial information about the Coca-Cola Corporation, and a student who writes a coursework in nutrition, a brief analysis of the nutritional qualities of a can of soda.
However, Google has an undeniable advantage - fame. A study published in August by the University of Michigan shows that last year Yahoo! overtook Google in customer satisfaction — that is, those who know believe that Yahoo! looking better But it didn’t have a strong impact on the share of competitors - Google still dominates. But sooner or later, users' dissatisfaction with a slightly tweaked search engine almost a decade ago can lead everyone to go in search of a better product, having left the former favorite. As already left Alta Vista.
“SIMPLICITY IS BETTER CHANGE”
Google is already losing ground in several key markets around the world. In South Korea - a country with a well-developed Internet industry - it accounts for less than 2% of all search queries, and in China - the main emerging Internet market - 17%. In Russia, Google is also hard at competing with Yandex.
In Western Europe, it still leads the search engines: in Germany, it accounts for 82% of all requests - but the German and French governments plan to invest $ 165 million and $ 122 million, respectively, in the development of a new search engine. The Japanese government is rumored to have invested $ 125 million in its own project, and Yahoo! there is ahead of google. In addition, despite the rumors that Google is preparing its own smartphone, the company has so far failed to become the leader of the promising online search market through mobile communications.
But most likely the main rival of Google will appear from obscurity. After all, Google itself was born that way, founded by modest Stanford graduate students Sergey Brin and Larry Page.
Already, many search engines go beyond the primitive search for matching words. Super-idea is clear to everyone - to make the car a little better understood what people want from it. And surely someone has already born the know-how, which will be the basis of the third generation search engine. In 2005–2006 venture capital firms invested $ 350 million in 79 new firms to develop search engines. Charles Knight of Alt Search Engines knows at least a thousand competitors, mostly American, who can give them ideas.
Some of the new search engines, including Mahalo and ChaCha, resort to the help of people - editors and consultants - in the preliminary selection of the most relevant pages for individual queries. You get more accurate results than Google, but only if the entered query is among those that the editors have already studied.
Another development vector is a narrow specialization. Google is browsing the entire Network - but you don’t need the entire Network. You will get more relevant results with a search engine that indexes a much smaller number of pages - only on a specific topic. Trulia selects offers to sell homes for you, Healthline helps you determine the possible diagnosis and treatment methods by symptoms, and Spock specializes in finding information about people.
According to analyst Knight, now the share of newcomers accounts for less than 5% of all requests. The main question - if any of them suddenly begin to grow rapidly, what will Google answer? While his younger rivals, of course, do not pull such a powerful investment in computer infrastructure, including, according to rumors, more than 450,000 servers. So here you will not see the lightning speed of Google - get ready to wait for the search results for a few tedious seconds. In addition, with its $ 12 billion in cash, Google can buy any newcomer company that poses a threat to it - just like last year he laid out $ 1.65 billion for YouTube, whose video prospectors threatened to overshadow its popularity.
But all the competitors in the world are not buying up - even by $ 12 billion. But catching up with Google in efficiency is not such a difficult task. So that Google will soon have to attend to the improvement of its search engine. And although there is no doubt about the company's innovative capabilities, when it comes to introducing new generation search technologies, she prefers to keep silent. “People don’t expect radical change from us,” said Matt Cutts, Google’s quality manager for search quality. “Our main task is to guarantee simplicity.”
In order to overthrow Google, it is not necessary to invent a sensational search engine - this can happen as a result of a slow leakage of queries into a wide variety of search engines, each of which is attractive in its own way. “It’s likely that soon we will witness how dozens or hundreds of specialized search engines will collectively throw Google off the top spot,” predicts Brant Bukowski, founder of Plus1 Marketing, an online search consulting company. One of Google’s owners, Sergey Brin, probably doesn’t remember, but in his homeland it is said that simplicity is worse than theft.
KILLS OF THE POSTER
Hammer in Ask.com spears (English "spears" or Spears) - and the system will offer you to continue the search in one of two directions: weapon or musical glam; and everything will be simple in Google - mixed up. A number of the most advanced search engines, such as the French KartOO and KooltTorch and the Russian Quintura, show the search categories in the form of graphic cards that help you choose the most appropriate one.
To demonstrate the benefits of Quintura, one of the three founders of the company, Jacob Sadchikov, undertakes himself. In the search box, he dials: "buy an apartment." Immediately to the left of the third of the screen, an interactive cloud of prompts is generated. A few seconds later, the phrase “buy an apartment” was overgrown with a dozen of related words within it - “house”, “elite”, “Moscow region”, “purchase” ...
Theoretically, it is possible to search for information with the help of such a cloud, even without defining exactly the final goal. “Even if the user doesn’t know what the word is connected with, a simple glance at the map will make it possible to understand what they eat it with,” explains Sadchikov Newsweek. “Here we press the cross over the word“ purchase ”- and all the results associated with this word“ float away ”,” Sadchikov clearly demonstrates.
Someday you can put a cross on Google, the creators of Quintura hope. With the help of their new system in the US, children are already taught how to work with the Internet - “so it’s more understandable” - but the developers are sure that it will also interest adults. Because - again, ideally - such a search engine is better at handling large amounts of information and tricky optimizers.
“Google once won due to the fact that it helped to give the relevant result to the first line and increased the size of the base. But now the same information is often repeated in different documents. Everyone quotes or steals from each other. Plus, there was a whole industry of earning money to ensure that customer sites come out for some requests in the first place, ”explains the disadvantages of Google Alexander Yershov, another founder of Quintura.
According to him, now the main problem of search engines is that the car and the person speak different languages. “We use the neural network algorithm. It allows you to work with information to unlimited depth. He builds associative connections, ”says Ershov. “If a search engine appears that will work like a human brain, Google will simply not have a place in the market,” adds Jacob Sadchikov.
Quintura in America put in the top ten alternative Google projects. According to the developers, “several million dollars” have already been invested in it. The bulk of the money came from Luxembourg. Investors are the same businessmen who have invested in Skype. Then Mangrove Capital Partners, having bought their wonderful means for Internet connection for $ 2 million from Estonian programmers, received $ 200 million at the output. “Since then, they have been looking for something interesting for a long time. I gave a couple of presentations, first by phone, then in Luxembourg, ”recalls Jacob Sadchikov. “When we signed the contract, we even raised a toast:“ For killing Google! ””.
The developers call their project “the killer of Google from Sergiev Posad” - forty programmers work on this project exactly in this ancient Moscow region. But on closer examination, all the stories about neural networks do not make Quintura - and other Google competitors - unconditional candidates for the creation of a new global search empire. The result is not too different from the usual, "Google". Quintura developers promise to enter the battle only in a year, when they will have their own database (now they use Yahoo! and Yandex databases).
However, there is no way to predict whose idea — and especially in whose hands — will revolutionize the market. Even Alta Vista has a chance to get a slice of “Google” cake. On a site with a nostalgic name is still hanging search engine. But it has its zest: unlike Google, it allows you to quickly search the web for audio files.
Via Russian Newsweek
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/17241/
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