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Users in applications: what are the realities?

One of the most common mistakes of developers during the preparation of their business plans (especially if this is their first application) is a serious re-evaluation of the number of users that this application can attract. Typical reasoning on this topic: “My application is compatible with 400 million devices, so if we can reach at least 1% of them, it will already turn out 4 million users.”, Etc. The trap is that 1% sounds extremely modest, but in fact it is a giant figure.

In the latest study conducted by VisionMobile, out of 664 developers surveyed, only 6% have a base of more than 500,000 active users. There is an opinion that, due to the features of the charts in app stores and limited marketing space, those developers who still managed to pass over half a million users have a good chance of getting a much larger number of users in the near future.

What then happens to the others who have not surpassed the mark of 500 thousand?

Excluding an application with an active base of 500,000 users or more from the study, it turned out that the average number of active users on iOS is 70,000, on Android - 51,000. The average values ​​of samples (medians) look somewhat more modest: 27,500 for iOS and 15,500 active users for Android.
The relative difference between averages is much smaller than between medians, hence the conclusion that the distribution of the active user base needs to be investigated further.

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As can be seen from the graph, the base of 200,000-500,000 active users is represented least of all, while the base of 50,000-200,000 is found 3 times more often. This allows us to conclude that somewhere at the level of 200,000 users there is a certain barrier, overcoming which, the application becomes more “noticeable” and the growth of the user base occurs much faster.

A similar jump is observed at the border of 501 - 2 000 users. This number of users is much more common than 2,001-5000 users. Most likely, this is an indicator of the marketing activity of the application, the difference between effectively promoted applications and those that do not advance.

It should be noted separately how the selected monetization model and application category influence the number of users. For example, applications that earn mostly on advertising (as a rule, they are free) have much more chances to cross the border of 50,000 users, while the freemium model is very close to paid applications and causes users to have less excitement. In the category of games, competition is extremely high, which makes it quite difficult for developers to dial more than 50,000 users, while the music and video category allows applications to pass the 50,000 and 500,000 users barrier much easier. The combinations of various models of monetization and application categories are almost endless; you can explore the interactive graph here .

Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/171089/


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