Digital Artisans in the Age of Plenty
Recently, I came across a couple of articles that new technologies are destroying jobs, and this applies not only to the familiar automation of factories , but also white collar workers . “Nothing new,” you will say, “we have already seen this during the industrial revolutions, then they will find a new job for themselves.” But what if this time everything is different and technologies destroy vacancies faster than create new ones ?
In general, in the long term, this is good, robots and software are cheaper than humans, which means that the goods and services produced will become cheaper, and all of humanity richer. Some hotheads even suggested that we are moving towards an economy of abundance , in which the notion of “work” that is customary for us loses its meaning.
But can it really not be useful for people?
To begin with, a couple of examples for those who did not read the above articles and still think that everything I write here is a fairy tale from a distant hypothetical future.
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Well, nobody will argue about the workers at the factories. So tell about the other - unmanned cars Google . What happens when they appear en masse on the roads? (that Ray Kurzweil predicted for 2019). Taxi drivers and truckers will become unnecessary. Want something more intimate and real? What about turnstiles that replaced conductors in Moscow buses a few years ago? Technology penetrates all areas.
We turn to the "white collar" and the service sector. Software and web services begin to do their work: ordering air tickets and booking hotels online reduce the need for travel agents, online stores take work from sellers, even such familiar technologies as e-mail and project management systems make secretaries and assistants less necessary. And yes, cloud platforms are replacing system administrators.
It would seem that I am talking here about a terrible crisis, but these are all signs that production and services are becoming cheaper. And since the cost of copying software is zero, and robots, thanks to the development of technology, mass production and its automation - cheaper robots will produce more and less expensive - will be almost free, then we can come to the conclusion that any mass-produced product or service will be available to everyone .
And, by the way, we already live in a society of information abundance - almost any film, book or song can be obtained in a few minutes and, if desired, free of charge.
Let's imagine that production has become so simple and cheap that it has become possible to produce anything at all quickly and at a negligible price. This can be implemented using a personal 3D printer, a small workshop with universal robots / tools , a combination of the one and the other, or even in the form of a cloud factory, provided as a service. And this is not some kind of fiction, to make sure of the reality of all this, it is enough to follow the links and do a minimal extrapolation.
How will we live in the era of personal production? If production is universally, universally and cheaply, then all that remains of the thing is information, its project, instruction for the plant to produce it. As already mentioned, the cost of copying information is zero, access to it is almost impossible to block, which means all standard items, such as clothes, furniture, household items, or the last iPhone (you may have to download it from torrents and produce it in a pirate or personal factory) available in abundance.
But that's not all, the projects of things will become possible to customize, which means you can make for yourself plates with an arbitrary pattern, clothes that fit exactly according to the features of the figure, or, for example, a knife along the arm. Those. in the environment of ubiquitous cheap production, we will “do” everything for ourselves. Very reminiscent of subsistence farming, right? But the latter is being replaced by specialization.
Let's return to the last example - a knife - let anyone take a finished project and change the color of the handle, but to make a really good knife you need knowledge of metals and, probably, ergonomics. Therefore, than to do it yourself, it is better to turn to a knowledgeable person.
Okay, let's say a knife is not the best example. Most people will be pleased with the standard knives, which can be downloaded from any website. Consider a different situation, you decided to lay the carpet in the room, you can design it yourself, but not everyone can draw, and even build something in Photoshop, not everyone has a sense of style (and some will have enough consciousness to admit it).
And we are starting to turn to our friends on all such issues, and gradually, if they like to do this, they turn into masters. Masters of doing something to order in their field: a digital blacksmith, carpet makers, a specialist for pumping motorcycles, but anyone. A new class is being born - digital artisans.
The key point in all this is that the new industrial revolution, in spite of its scale and expanded scope of influence, will not lead to the fact that everyone will become either scientists or idlers. And also will not lead to the disappearance of money. Because people will still have something to offer each other.
In general, in the long term, this is good, robots and software are cheaper than humans, which means that the goods and services produced will become cheaper, and all of humanity richer. Some hotheads even suggested that we are moving towards an economy of abundance , in which the notion of “work” that is customary for us loses its meaning.
But can it really not be useful for people?
Economy of abundance
To begin with, a couple of examples for those who did not read the above articles and still think that everything I write here is a fairy tale from a distant hypothetical future.
')
Well, nobody will argue about the workers at the factories. So tell about the other - unmanned cars Google . What happens when they appear en masse on the roads? (that Ray Kurzweil predicted for 2019). Taxi drivers and truckers will become unnecessary. Want something more intimate and real? What about turnstiles that replaced conductors in Moscow buses a few years ago? Technology penetrates all areas.
We turn to the "white collar" and the service sector. Software and web services begin to do their work: ordering air tickets and booking hotels online reduce the need for travel agents, online stores take work from sellers, even such familiar technologies as e-mail and project management systems make secretaries and assistants less necessary. And yes, cloud platforms are replacing system administrators.
It would seem that I am talking here about a terrible crisis, but these are all signs that production and services are becoming cheaper. And since the cost of copying software is zero, and robots, thanks to the development of technology, mass production and its automation - cheaper robots will produce more and less expensive - will be almost free, then we can come to the conclusion that any mass-produced product or service will be available to everyone .
And, by the way, we already live in a society of information abundance - almost any film, book or song can be obtained in a few minutes and, if desired, free of charge.
Personal production
Let's imagine that production has become so simple and cheap that it has become possible to produce anything at all quickly and at a negligible price. This can be implemented using a personal 3D printer, a small workshop with universal robots / tools , a combination of the one and the other, or even in the form of a cloud factory, provided as a service. And this is not some kind of fiction, to make sure of the reality of all this, it is enough to follow the links and do a minimal extrapolation.
How will we live in the era of personal production? If production is universally, universally and cheaply, then all that remains of the thing is information, its project, instruction for the plant to produce it. As already mentioned, the cost of copying information is zero, access to it is almost impossible to block, which means all standard items, such as clothes, furniture, household items, or the last iPhone (you may have to download it from torrents and produce it in a pirate or personal factory) available in abundance.
But that's not all, the projects of things will become possible to customize, which means you can make for yourself plates with an arbitrary pattern, clothes that fit exactly according to the features of the figure, or, for example, a knife along the arm. Those. in the environment of ubiquitous cheap production, we will “do” everything for ourselves. Very reminiscent of subsistence farming, right? But the latter is being replaced by specialization.
Digital craftsmen
Let's return to the last example - a knife - let anyone take a finished project and change the color of the handle, but to make a really good knife you need knowledge of metals and, probably, ergonomics. Therefore, than to do it yourself, it is better to turn to a knowledgeable person.
Okay, let's say a knife is not the best example. Most people will be pleased with the standard knives, which can be downloaded from any website. Consider a different situation, you decided to lay the carpet in the room, you can design it yourself, but not everyone can draw, and even build something in Photoshop, not everyone has a sense of style (and some will have enough consciousness to admit it).
And we are starting to turn to our friends on all such issues, and gradually, if they like to do this, they turn into masters. Masters of doing something to order in their field: a digital blacksmith, carpet makers, a specialist for pumping motorcycles, but anyone. A new class is being born - digital artisans.
Loafers and communism? Not!
The key point in all this is that the new industrial revolution, in spite of its scale and expanded scope of influence, will not lead to the fact that everyone will become either scientists or idlers. And also will not lead to the disappearance of money. Because people will still have something to offer each other.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/169719/
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