The future of bitcoin mining on ASIC devices (reasoning)
Surely you have already heard about the upcoming revolution in the mining of bitcoins: special chips have been developed that can drastically increase its speed: instead of 700Mx at best, you can get 40-60 Gx on a video card and earn $ 3000-4000 per month. Who has not heard, here is one of the proofs bitcoinmagazine.com/working-avalon-asic-confirmed
I personally (and not only) have doubts that Ashiki exist at all, there are heated battles on the forums on the forums. They are confused by the rules of store.avalon-asics.com : We Accept Bitcoin Only - this means I can not just pay with money. No Refunds - means the money in which case it is impossible to return. There is no confidence in www.butterflylabs.com , because even the video of ASIK has not been delivered yet. Further, I will proceed from the fact that all these devices really work as withered and exist.
')
I will comment on what I often met on the forums - attempts to predict what will happen to the Bitcoin course in the case of the inclusion of mass mining at ASIKs. The purpose of such reasoning: the calculation of future profits and time to return on investment (ROI) due to the fear of being at zero.
Usually, people write like this: “everything will flow in and the course will fall” or “the complexity will increase and the income will gradually level up, it will become as it used to be on video cards”.
These are all simplified opinions, I will try to speculate.
To calculate correctly, you need to take into account the course dynamics over time. This can be done by taking graphs of the course with Bitcoincharts and analyzing trends, and for this you need to know the statistics, for example, by regression you can build a continuation of the graph.
In addition, one factor is usually taken into account: the massive influx of “light” Bitcoins into the stock exchange, the supply will increase, and therefore the price will fall. It seems correct, yes?
But what about the other factors?
After all, do not forget that bitcoins eventually go into circulation less, i.e. something like a negative acceleration, remember the graph commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File : Total_bitcoins_over_time.png? uselang = en
Another factor is the growth of the infrastructure that supports bitcoin, i.e. stores, payment systems, read that already and banking license will give soon. I don’t have graphics on infrastructure growth, if anyone knows good statistics - let’s be wondering if it is growing with acceleration or starting from some point the number of new companies is not growing.
Mathematically, it would be correct to add these functions, we get the polynomial A (x) = F (x) + Y (x) + Z (x), where F, Y, Z are the factors listed above. Those. the understanding that Bitcoin will become more expensive in the future, which means selling Bitcoins now and taking into account the increased complexity, you can then stay on the beans with Asiki and without a bitcoins reserve is superimposed on the decreasing course of the arrival of Asikov. And someone buys thousands of bitcoins and then will sell at a rate of $ 40. So it’s not at all a fact that the rate will fall, maybe the demand for bitcoins will be even higher than the supply. So it turns out that 3 functions in total, one decreasing locally (F) and two increasing globally (Y, Z).
I think that, as a result, the course schedule will be as follows: first, a fall in the course within 2-3 months. up to 10 dollars, then its growth to 15, then again a fall and eventually stabilization. Those. there will be a fading wave. It’s difficult for me to predict how fast profits will become low, as it’s now on video cards, maybe 1 month, maybe 5, I need to analyze the number of real ASIC orders (like 7000 of them).
On the vise: in the upper graph bitcoin.sipa.be for almost a year from 2.12 to 1.13 the network capacity has increased 2.5 times, while the complexity has increased by 2.33. If we accept their linear relationship (which is a very large assumption), then if at Asiki the power grows 30-40 times (I take an average video card 1Gx, Asik - 40Gx), and 7000 Asikov themselves, we get an additive to the network power 40Gx * 7000 = 280 000 Gh. So, there will be an increase in power of 280 \ 25 = 11.2 times, and perhaps an increase in complexity, too (here take into account the assumption made above about their linear relationship). All this no later than 2 months. After the start of deliveries, Asikov will begin. Although even with such complexity it turns out about 333 dollars per month of profit (36685203.52 complexity and 40 capacity, course 20, check out - www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator ). Conclusion: for 2 months, investment in equipment will pay off even with increased complexity, which seems to me too good.
Why I took a linear connection. Again, we are looking at bitcoin.sipa.be , taking a segment from 6.2011 to 9.2011, when the power was constantly growing. And the power and complexity have grown the same - 3 times, and further I extrapolate.
Criticize in the comments, I will be glad to hear more accurate calculations and analysis.
I personally (and not only) have doubts that Ashiki exist at all, there are heated battles on the forums on the forums. They are confused by the rules of store.avalon-asics.com : We Accept Bitcoin Only - this means I can not just pay with money. No Refunds - means the money in which case it is impossible to return. There is no confidence in www.butterflylabs.com , because even the video of ASIK has not been delivered yet. Further, I will proceed from the fact that all these devices really work as withered and exist.
')
I will comment on what I often met on the forums - attempts to predict what will happen to the Bitcoin course in the case of the inclusion of mass mining at ASIKs. The purpose of such reasoning: the calculation of future profits and time to return on investment (ROI) due to the fear of being at zero.
Usually, people write like this: “everything will flow in and the course will fall” or “the complexity will increase and the income will gradually level up, it will become as it used to be on video cards”.
These are all simplified opinions, I will try to speculate.
To calculate correctly, you need to take into account the course dynamics over time. This can be done by taking graphs of the course with Bitcoincharts and analyzing trends, and for this you need to know the statistics, for example, by regression you can build a continuation of the graph.
In addition, one factor is usually taken into account: the massive influx of “light” Bitcoins into the stock exchange, the supply will increase, and therefore the price will fall. It seems correct, yes?
But what about the other factors?
After all, do not forget that bitcoins eventually go into circulation less, i.e. something like a negative acceleration, remember the graph commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File : Total_bitcoins_over_time.png? uselang = en
Another factor is the growth of the infrastructure that supports bitcoin, i.e. stores, payment systems, read that already and banking license will give soon. I don’t have graphics on infrastructure growth, if anyone knows good statistics - let’s be wondering if it is growing with acceleration or starting from some point the number of new companies is not growing.
Mathematically, it would be correct to add these functions, we get the polynomial A (x) = F (x) + Y (x) + Z (x), where F, Y, Z are the factors listed above. Those. the understanding that Bitcoin will become more expensive in the future, which means selling Bitcoins now and taking into account the increased complexity, you can then stay on the beans with Asiki and without a bitcoins reserve is superimposed on the decreasing course of the arrival of Asikov. And someone buys thousands of bitcoins and then will sell at a rate of $ 40. So it’s not at all a fact that the rate will fall, maybe the demand for bitcoins will be even higher than the supply. So it turns out that 3 functions in total, one decreasing locally (F) and two increasing globally (Y, Z).
I think that, as a result, the course schedule will be as follows: first, a fall in the course within 2-3 months. up to 10 dollars, then its growth to 15, then again a fall and eventually stabilization. Those. there will be a fading wave. It’s difficult for me to predict how fast profits will become low, as it’s now on video cards, maybe 1 month, maybe 5, I need to analyze the number of real ASIC orders (like 7000 of them).
On the vise: in the upper graph bitcoin.sipa.be for almost a year from 2.12 to 1.13 the network capacity has increased 2.5 times, while the complexity has increased by 2.33. If we accept their linear relationship (which is a very large assumption), then if at Asiki the power grows 30-40 times (I take an average video card 1Gx, Asik - 40Gx), and 7000 Asikov themselves, we get an additive to the network power 40Gx * 7000 = 280 000 Gh. So, there will be an increase in power of 280 \ 25 = 11.2 times, and perhaps an increase in complexity, too (here take into account the assumption made above about their linear relationship). All this no later than 2 months. After the start of deliveries, Asikov will begin. Although even with such complexity it turns out about 333 dollars per month of profit (36685203.52 complexity and 40 capacity, course 20, check out - www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator ). Conclusion: for 2 months, investment in equipment will pay off even with increased complexity, which seems to me too good.
Why I took a linear connection. Again, we are looking at bitcoin.sipa.be , taking a segment from 6.2011 to 9.2011, when the power was constantly growing. And the power and complexity have grown the same - 3 times, and further I extrapolate.
Criticize in the comments, I will be glad to hear more accurate calculations and analysis.
Source: https://habr.com/ru/post/168887/
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